Our 2019 Oscar nomination predictions: 'Black Panther' and 'Roma' could make history
After months of speculation, oddsmaking and old-fashioned smear-campaigning, the nominations for the 2019 Academy Awards will mercifully be unveiled at the crack of dawn on Tuesday, Jan. 22.
Will Black Panther and Roma make their own respective slices of history? Will the divisive Golden Globe winners Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book sustain their momentum and triumph over all those think pieces? And will the Academy do the only reasonable, rational thing and give veteran actor Sam Elliott his first nod for his tearjerking supporting performance in A Star Is Born?
Here are our best guesses, with Oscar nomination predictions in all the major categories except Best Popular Film, because thank heavens that desperate excuse of a ratings stunt never actually materialized into a real thing.
BEST PICTURE
Let’s start with the sure things, which should include Black Panther (which would be the first superhero, Marvel or otherwise, ever nominated for Best Picture), Roma (which would be the first Netflix film nominated) and A Star Is Born (which would be the first, um, Lady Gaga film nominated). Spike Lee’s BlacKkKlansman and Yorgos Lanthimos’s comedic drama The Favourite shouldn’t have any trouble getting in. And then there’s the curious case of Green Book, an early favorite that has been plagued by an entire awards season’s worth of kerfuffles (some noteworthy, others inane), not to mention enough essays debating its wokeness (or lack thereof) to fill a textbook. The racial drama should still have enough support among older voters — who might be more passionate in said support as a form of protest over the backlash — to make the cut.
With between five and 10 nominees, there are another half-dozen films vying for remaining slots. In the seven years since the rule change allowing a flexible number, there have been nine nominees five times and eight nominees twice. So we’ll go with nine here, led by Barry Jenkins’s soul-piercing love story If Beale Street Could Talk, the critically divisive Queen biopic that just won’t go away, Bohemian Rhapsody, and Damien Chazelle’s First Man — the Neil Armstrong biopic that many folks have left for dead in the awards race but could sneak in with support (again) from older voters à la last year’s Darkest Hour. If any of those falter, look for the biting Dick Cheney biopic Vice or one of a trio of mainstream hits (Crazy Rich Asians, A Quiet Place or Mary Poppins Returns) to pop in there.
Predictions:
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
First Man
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
A Star Is Born
Other contenders:
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Crazy Rich Asians
Eighth Grade
Mary Poppins Returns
A Quiet Place
Vice
Widows
BEST DIRECTOR
In what’s shaping up to be a Roma vs. A Star Is Born Oscars, Alfonso Cuarón and Bradley Cooper are locks here. Ditto for Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), who, unfathomably, has never been nominated in this category despite much-deserving joints like Do the Right Thing and Malcolm X. Also expect to see Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite), who continues to build a fanbase among cinephiles after entries like The Lobster and The Killing of a Sacred Deer. After that quartet it becomes more difficult to whittle down the contenders. Peter Farrelly (Green Book) was already on the bubble before it came to light last week that he exposed his penis on set in the 1990s. Barry Jenkins (Beale Street) and Damien Chazelle (First Man), who competed two years ago for Moonlight and La La Land, respectively, have not seen the same kind of widespread support for their films this time around. But how could the Academy not honor Ryan Coogler, the 32-year-old maestro behind the year’s biggest earner and cultural touchstone, Black Panther?
Predictions:
Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Other contenders:
Damien Chazelle, First Man
Jon M. Chu, Crazy Rich Asians
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Deborah Granik, Leave No Trace
Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Adam McKay, Vice
BEST ACTRESS
A friendly rivalry (emphasis on friendly: Just look at this photo) appears to be forming between Glenn Close (who has been nominated six times before The Wife but has never won) and Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born), who on Sunday tied in this category at the Critics’ Choice Awards. While those two appear to be the frontrunners, there’s also a lot of voter support behind Golden Globe winner Olivia Colman (The Favourite). Beyond that trio, expect to hear Melissa McCarthy’s name called for a career-best performance as Lee Israel in Can You Ever Forgive Me? The fifth slot is the wildcard, likely going to Emily Blunt for her acerbic twist on the Disney supernanny in Mary Poppins Returns or the revelatory newcomer Yalitza Aparicio for her first onscreen role in Roma.
Predictions:
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Other contenders:
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Viola Davis, Widows
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
BEST ACTOR
As with Best Actress, there looks to be a helluva three-way battle taking shape in the lead male category. The gold, silver and bronze here likely being Christian Bale (for his hardly recognizable, uncanny portrayal of Dick Cheney in Vice), Bradley Cooper (for his octave-shifting, hard-living country rocker in A Star Is Born) and Rami Malek (for his impassioned, go-for-broke embodiment of Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody). Viggo Mortensen hurt his chances after succumbing to the biggest trend of awards season, “Embarrassing Slip-ups by the Cast and Crew of Green Book,” but should still be in the driver’s seat for a nomination. The fifth slot is a tossup between John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman), Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate) and Ethan Hawke (First Reformed).
Predictions:
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Other contenders:
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Ryan Gosling, First Man
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
There are four contenders you can etch in stone here: Amy Adams (who has been nominated five times prior without a win, and is one again indelible as Lynne Cheney in Vice), If Beale Street Could Talk‘s explosive scene stealer Regina King (despite that SAG snub), and royal rivals Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz (who are both so good in The Favourite they’ve hardly canceled each other out when it comes to the other film awards). Who gets the fifth nod? I have a hunch the Academy likes First Man better than other groups and believe Claire Foy will stick the landing for her quiet performance as Neil Armstrong’s first woman, Janet.
Predictions:
Amy Adams, Vice
Claire Foy, First Man
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Other contenders:
Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
Margot Robbie, Mary, Queen of Scots
Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yet again we have a foursome of favorites and several other worthy performances vying for the final slot. The first four are Mahershala Ali, who won this category two years ago for Moonlight and seems to be the only major name from Green Book thus far unscathed; Timothée Chalamet, the 23-year-old who would earn his second Oscar nomination in as many years for playing a drug-addled teen in Beautiful Boy; and two veterans who have never been nominated, Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) and Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born). As for the fifth slot, Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) seems to have racked up the most consistent number of nominations thus far this awards season, and I loved long shot Daniel Kaluuya for his terrifying Anton Chirgurh-esque turn in Widows, but ultimately I’m going with Black Panther‘s Michael B. Jordan, who delivers one of the best performances we’ve seen in a superhero movie since Heath Ledger posthumously won this category 10 years ago for The Dark Knight.
Predictions:
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Forgive Me?
Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther
Other contenders:
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Daniel Kaluuya, Widows
Sam Rockwell, Vice
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Roma, Vice and The Favourite will no doubt be INT. KODAK THEATRE – NIGHT come Feb. 24 (sorry). Then it gets interesting. Can Green Book survive its latest scandal, the surfacing of a tweet from Nick Vallelonga (co-writer and real-life son of Viggo Mortensen’s character, Tony Lip) in which he supported President Trump’s debunked claim that Muslims were celebrating in the streets on 9/11? As previously noted, Green Book probably still has enough support among older voters to make the ballot. That means the fifth slot comes down to two indie darlings from indie-darling studio A24, Eighth Grade and First Reformed. I’ll give the edge to Bo Burnham for so astonishingly capturing the reality of a contemporary teenage girl.
Predictions:
Bo Burnham, Eighth Grade
Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite
Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie and Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Adam McKay, Vice
Other contenders:
Paul Schrader, First Reformed
Brian Woods & Scott Peck and John Krasinski, A Quiet Place
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The adapted category is more competitive and much tougher to call. A Star Is Born, BlacKkKlansman and Beale Street should all be safe (this could be a consolation prize if Beale Street, which Jenkins adapted from the James Baldwin classic, doesn’t make it into Best Picture). Can You Ever Forgive Me? should also see a nod here despite missing out on Best Pic. That leaves blockbusters Black Panther and Crazy Rich Asians angling for the final spot, but again, I’m going with a surprise: First Man.
Predictions:
Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Josh Singer, First Man
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Eric Roth and Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters, A Star Is Born
Other contenders:
Ryan Coogler & Joe Robert Cole, Black Panther
Peter Chiarelli and Adele Lim, Crazy Rich Asians
Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini, Leave No Trace
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
A new frontrunner has emerged in this category: All hail the amazing Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse, which suddenly seems on track to topple contenders like Disney’s Incredibles 2 and Ralph Breaks the Internet and Wes Anderson’s Isle of Dogs. All four should be nominated, and if I had my druthers you’d see the underappreciated Smallfoot also make the cut. The Academy, however, typically favors at least one art-house entry, which all but guarantees Japan’s acclaimed Mirai a spot.
Predictions:
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse
Other contenders:
The Grinch
Smallfoot
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Both Documentary and Foreign-Language Film are wildly competitive this year. In the nonfiction race, expect to see the hit Mr. Rogers doc Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, the astonishing rock-climbing pic Free Solo, the charming Ruth Bader Ginsburg bio RBG and the stranger-than-fiction story Three Identical Strangers on the ballot. That leaves one open slot for a handful of deserving docs, but I see Minding the Gap — one of a trio of great skateboarding movies last year — sliding in.
Predictions:
Free Solo
Minding the Gap
RBG
Three Identical Strangers
Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
Other contenders:
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
On Her Shoulders
Shirkers
BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
We can safely assume Mexican auteur Alfonso Cuarón’s deeply personal and deeply adored Roma isn’t just going to get nominated, it’s going to win. The films with a chance of an upset would be Pawel Pawlikowski’s magnificent Polish love story Cold War — or maybe even the Lebanese heartbreaker Capernaum — so count those two in. The last two slots should go to Korea’s Burning and Japan’s Shoplifters.
Predictions:
Burning
Capernaum
Cold War
Roma
Shoplifters
Other contenders:
The Guilty
Never Look Away
The Oscar nominations will be announced Tuesday, Jan. 22, at 8 a.m. ET/5 a.m. PT.
Watch the stars of Roma, Beale Street and Eighth Grade react to making Barack Obama’s best of the year list:
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