2024 Emmy Predictions: Best Documentary Special
Three years after “Boys State” won the Emmy for Best Documentary Special, its first companion film, “Girls State,” is competing for the same honor. While it has solid potential to directly follow “Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie” as the third Apple TV+ special to take this prize, it will have to stand out from a crowd of strong contenders, including the same platform’s “Steve! (Martin): A Documentary in 2 Pieces.”
Unlike most Primetime Emmys, Best Documentary Special is a non-competitive area award that is bestowed upon any nominee that earns the approval of 90% of the members of the TV academy’s documentary peer group. This means that the five programs in the 2024 lineup are not vying for a single trophy and could all potentially prevail. However, if no nominees hit said 90% threshold, only the highest-rated one will win.
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In order to determine which of this year’s nominees has the best shot at being approved for victory, let’s take a closer look at each one. Be sure to make your predictions in this and 30 other Creative Arts Emmy categories by September 7.
“Albert Brooks: Defending My Life” (HBO)
Having last taken the gold for “George Carlin’s American Dream” (2022), HBO can now extend its category win record to 13 on its 42nd nomination. This tribute to actor and filmmaker Albert Brooks is directed and produced by his longtime friend, Rob Reiner, who, until now, had not achieved Emmy recognition since winning his second acting award for “All in the Family” 46 years ago.
“Girls State” (Apple TV+)
Like its predecessor, this film chronicles a modern social experiment in which a diverse group of same-gender teenagers form their own government over the course of one week. Included among its nominated producers are six of those who shared in the “Boys State” win and three who were honored for “Still” last year.
“The Greatest Night in Pop” (Netflix)
Netflix’s 14th nomination in this category comes for this revelatory film about the creation of the 1985 USA for Africa song “We Are the World.” Featuring commentary from surviving performers like Bruce Springsteen, Kenny Loggins, and Cyndi Lauper, it is produced in part by songwriter Lionel Richie, who now has his first shot at an Emmy to go along with his Oscar and four Grammys.
“Jim Henson Idea Man” (Disney+)
This film about the beloved creator of the Muppets is directed and produced by Ron Howard, who was previously honored alongside present co-nominee Brian Grazer for his work on “From the Earth to the Moon” (1998) and “Arrested Development” (2004). Also nominated for producing this special are Emmy winners Sara Bernstein, Margaret Bodde, Justin Wilkes, and Mark Monroe, the last of whom is concurrently recognized for writing it.
“Steve! (Martin): A Documentary in 2 Pieces” (Apple TV+)
2014 Best Documentary Feature Oscar winners Morgan Neville and Caitrin Rogers (“20 Feet from Stardom”) produced this program which examines its subject’s life and career in aptly titled “Then” and “Now” segments. The 78-year-old Martin, who is presently nominated for producing and starring on “Only Murders in the Building,” just set a new all-time age record in the Best Comedy Actor category.
So, which program has the best chance of winning a 2024 Emmy for Best Documentary Special? Since all five are simultaneously up for the corresponding directing award, voters might be receptive to the Henson film’s unique writing nominee status. However, 75% of the documentary specials that have earned both writing and directing bids within the past decade have lost the program prize, with recent examples including “Lucy and Desi” (2022) and “The Social Dilemma” (2021) and the last opposite case having involved “13th” (2017).
On the other hand, it helps that “Jim Henson” has at least three more nominations than any of this category’s other current candidates and is the most-nominated documentary program since 2019’s “Our Planet.” It’s also wise to bet on a special about a deceased entertainer, as evidenced by the recent wins of programs focused on George Carlin, Garry Shandling, Nina Simone, and George Harrison. Further factoring in the caliber of the Henson producers, this should be a fairly easy win for Disney+.
PREDICT the Creative Arts Emmy winners through September 7
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