2024 Emmy Predictions: Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2024 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 13 to June 24, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 17. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 15 and ends the night of August 26. The 76th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 15, and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.
Click on for more of our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards.
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The State of the Race
Here finally lies a category where “Shōgun” is a bit more vulnerable (which may sound a little crazy when one considers the FX series still received two Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series nominations.) All that said, both Tadanobu Asano and Takehiro Hira are up against “The Morning Show” stars Billy Crudup and Jon Hamm, who already have Drama Actor Emmys under their belt (Crudup for his performance on the Apple TV+ series specifically.)
However, it is undeniable that “Shōgun” has resonated with TV Academy members — spoilers to follow — but if they have seen the literary adaptation through to the end, it is going to be hard not to use this one opportunity they now have to recognize Asano for his entertainingly waffling warlord Yabushige. Though he is a primary source of humor on the show, the end of his arc shows great depth.
But again, Crudup surprised everyone his first time being nominated in this category for “The Morning Show,” winning over “Succession” stars for what was arguably their best season. Voters know him even better now, so he could generate another upset. Same goes for Hamm, who is also nominated this year for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie for his work in “Fargo,” and whose entrance onto the workplace soap opera added an extra boost of energy. Co-star Mark Duplass has also been with “The Morning Show” from the beginning, but collects the spoils of Season 3 being more lauded than ever from an awards standpoint.
That idea of garnering recognition off the work one does opposite a star player is what benefits “The Crown” star Jonathan Pryce and “Slow Horses” star Jack Lowden as well. But if their respective scene partners Imelda Staunton and Gary Oldman are not the frontrunners in their categories, it is hard to imagine they have a shot at even a surprise win here, given who they are nominated against.
Nominees are listed in order of their likelihood to win.
Power Rankings:
Tadanobu Asano, “Shōgun” (FX)
Jon Hamm, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Takehiro Hira, “Shōgun” (FX)
Mark Duplass, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Jonathan Pryce, “The Crown” (Netflix)
Jack Lowden, “Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)
Will Win: Tadanobu Asano, “Shōgun”
Could Win: Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show”
Should Win: Tadanobu Asano, “Shōgun”
More Drama Category Predictions:
Outstanding Drama Series
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
View IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 76th Emmy Awards.
Last Year’s Winner: Matthew Macfadyen, “Succession”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: “The Gilded Age,” the one HBO series most in awards contention, is much more female-focused than past drama Emmys juggernaut “Succession,” but star Nathan Lane is still around to help possibly bring the network a third straight win in this category.
Notable Ineligible Series: Matthew Macfadyen, Nicholas Braun, Alan Ruck, and Alexander Skarsg?rd, “Succession” (ended); F. Murray Abraham, Michael Imperioli, Theo James, and Will Sharpe, “The White Lotus: Sicily” (ended)
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