2024 VMA predictions: Official odds say Taylor Swift will make history at MTV Video Music Awards – again
Are we in for another Taylor Swift love fest at the MTV Video Music Awards? A year after she made history with nine wins, including her fourth Video of the Year title for “Anti-Hero,” she racked up another 12 nominations including, yes, Video of the Year again for “Fortnight” featuring Post Malone. As most of the VMAs are fan-voted and Swifties are one of the most dominant fan bases in the world, we’re expecting her to win more often than not in what could be a historic night for the superstar. Scroll down for our official odds in 15 categories, with our projected winners highlighted in gold.
Based on the combined predictions of music fans who have placed their bets here in our predictions center, Swift will win five awards: Video of the Year, Best Collaboration and Best Direction for “Fortnight,” plus Artist of the Year and Best Pop. That doesn’t even count her potential wins in professional categories and social media categories, which aren’t in our predictions center. To date she has collected 23 Moon Persons, while Beyonce has a record 27. So if Swift does win five or more trophies, she would make history as the most awarded artist ever at the VMAs.
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How many do you think Swift will collect this year? Could she even exceed the nine awards she took home in 2023?
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VIDEO OF THE YEAR
Taylor Swift feat. Post Malone, “Fortnight” — 17/5
Ariana Grande, “We Can’t Be Friends (Wait for Your Love)” — 4/1
Eminem, “Houdini” — 5/1
Doja Cat, “Paint the Town Red” — 11/2
Billie Eilish, “Lunch” — 13/2
SZA, “Snooze” — 7/1
ARTIST OF THE YEAR
Taylor Swift — 10/3
Ariana Grande — 9/2
Sabrina Carpenter — 5/1
Eminem — 6/1
SZA — 6/1
Bad Bunny — 7/1
BEST NEW ARTIST
Chappell Roan — 10/3
Benson Boone — 4/1
Gracie Abrams — 5/1
Tyla — 11/2
Teddy Swims — 13/2
Shaboozey — 7/1
SONG OF THE YEAR
Sabrina Carpenter, “Espresso” — 18/5
Taylor Swift feat. Post Malone, “Fortnight” — 4/1
Beyonce, “Texas Hold ‘Em” — 9/2
Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us” — 11/2
Teddy Swims, “Lose Control” — 7/1
Jack Harlow, “Lovin on Me” — 7/1
BEST COLLABORATION
Taylor Swift feat. Post Malone, “Fortnight” — 10/3
Jung Kook feat. Latto, “Seven” — 4/1
Post Malone feat. Morgan Wallen, “I Had Some Help” — 5/1
Drake feat. Sexyy Red and SZA, “Rich Baby Daddy” — 6/1
GloRilla and Megan Thee Stallion, “Wanna Be” — 13/2
Jessie Murph feat. Jelly Roll, “Wild Ones” — 15/2
BEST AFROBEATS
Tyla, “Water” — 16/5
Usher and Pheelz, “Ruin” — 4/1
Chris Brown feat. Davido and Lojay, “Sensational” — 5/1
Tems, “Love Me JeJe” — 11/2
Ayra Starr feat. Giveon, “Last Heartbreak Song” — 13/2
Burna Boy, “City Boys” — 7/1
BEST ALTERNATIVE
Benson Boone, “Beautiful Things” — 17/5
Hozier, “Too Sweet” — 9/2
Teddy Swims, “Lose Control” — 9/2
Linkin Park, “Friendly Fire” — 6/1
Imagine Dragons, “Eyes Closed” — 13/2
Bleachers, “Tiny Moves” — 7/1
BEST HIP-HOP
Eminem, “Houdini” — 71/20
Megan Thee Stallion, “Boa” — 19/5
Drake feat. Sexyy Red and SZA, “Rich Baby Daddy” — 5/1
Travis Scott feat. Playboi Carti, “FE!N” — 11/2
Gunna, “Fukumean” — 7/1
GloRilla, “Yeah Glo!” — 7/1
BEST K-POP
Lisa, “Rockstar” — 69/20
Jung Kook feat. Latto, “Seven” — 4/1
Stray Kids, “LALALALA” — 5/1
NewJeans, “Super Shy” — 11/2
Tomorrow X Together, “Deja Vu” — 13/2
NCT Dream, “Smoothie” — 15/2
BEST LATIN
Anitta, “Mil Veces” — 5/1
Shakira and Cardi B, “Punteria” — 11/2
Peso Pluma and Anitta, “Bellakeo” — 6/1
Karol G, “Mi Ex Tenía Razón” — 6/1
Bad Bunny, “Monaco” — 13/2
Myke Towers, “Lala” — 7/1
Rauw Alejandro, “Touching the Sky” — 7/1
BEST POP
Taylor Swift — 17/5
Sabrina Carpenter — 39/10
Olivia Rodrigo — 5/1
Dua Lipa — 11/2
Camila Cabello — 13/2
Tate McRae — 15/2
BEST R&B
SZA, “Snooze” — 10/3
Tyla, “Water” — 4/1
Victoria Monet, “On My Mama” — 5/1
Usher, Summer Walker and 21 Savage, “Good Good” — 11/2
Muni Long, “Made for Me” — 7/1
Alicia Keys, “Lifeline” — 15/2
BEST ROCK
Green Day, “Dilemma” — 37/10
Coldplay, “Feelslikeimfallinginlove” — 37/10
Kings of Leon, “Mustang” — 5/1
U2, “Atomic City” — 6/1
Lenny Kravitz, “Human” — 13/2
Bon Jovi, “Legendary” — 7/1
VIDEO FOR GOOD
Billie Eilish, “What Was I Made For?” — 16/5
Raye, “Genesis” — 4/1
Alexander Stewart, “If You Only Knew” — 11/2
Coldplay, “Feelslikeimfallinginlove” — 11/2
Joyner Lucas and Jelly Roll, “Best for Me” — 13/2
Tyler Childers, “In Your Love” — 7/1
BEST DIRECTION
Taylor Swift feat. Post Malone, “Fortnight” — 17/5
Ariana Grande, “We Can’t Be Friends (Wait for Your Love)” — 4/1
Eminem, “Houdini” — 5/1
Sabrina Carpenter, “Please Please Please” — 11/2
Megan Thee Stallion, “Boa” — 13/2
Bleachers, “Tiny Moves” — 15/2
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