2024 VMA professional categories: Another Taylor Swift sweep, or can Lisa or Ariana Grande steal her thunder?

The MTV Video Music Awards are around the corner, scheduled for September 11, and while it’s fun to guess whose fan bases will come out on top and vote the most aggressively for their faves, it’s probably even more fun to talk about the professional categories, which are decided by music insiders and are often much more competitive. This year the possible winners range from pop artists to hip-hop, K-pop and Latin stars.

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Best Art Direction
While voters have tended towards colorful, poppy videos here in the past few years, I think this might go to Taylor Swift and Post Malone’s “Fortnight” with its unique set design that’s sure to stand out in the lineup. If it doesn’t go Swift’s way, bet on Sabrina Carpenter’s “Please Please Please” or Lisa’s “Rockstar,” both of which would fit the colorful trend of recent winners unlike the black-and-white look of “Fortnight.” Funny enough, this is the one category Swift hasn’t won yet out of the technical awards, so a win here is actually due.

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Best Cinematography
It’s hard to imagine this category not going to Oscar-nominated cinematographer Rodrigo Prieto, nominated here for his work on Swift and Malone’s “Fortnight.” Name recognition is probably a factor, and “Fortnight” is genuinely a gorgeously shot music video that calls attention to its photography by being entirely in black-and-white. If another video were to win, it might be Dua Lipa’s “Illusion,” shot by previous winner Nikita Kuzmenko; it’s very bright and crisp like most winners here tend to be. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the love for Ariana Grande’s “We Can’t Be Friends (Wait for Your Love)” extends here, or if Charli XCX’s fun and purposefully shaky “Von Dutch” wins due to the “Brat” hype. But Swift is the safe bet.

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Best Choreography
This category usually goes one of two ways: either to the most choreography, as in big group dance sequences (“Con Altura,” “Pink Venom,” “On,” “Woman”), or to a video that’s a one or two-person dance show (“This is America,” “Treat People with Kindness”). I think that will help Rauw Alejandro score a win for “Touching the Sky,” choreographed by Fefe Burgos; it’s pretty much a group dancing showcase for the Latin star. If not, then it’s probably going to be Lisa’s “Rockstar,” choreographed by Sean Bankhead and featuring a lot of group dancing. Also, Bankhead has been the industry’s it-choreographer for a couple of years now but has not won this award yet. Dua Lipa’s “Houdini” could also be a strong contender, but it’s choreographed by Charm La’Donna, a previous winner, and this last decade has seen no repeat winners, so they might rather go for someone new.

Best Visual Effects
This category usually honors videos with heavy CGI, especially for world-building, as opposed to practical effects. I think Megan Thee Stallion’s “Boa” represents the category the best, and would be a great winner, with not only some created environments but also a lot of diverse effects to show Megan killing her opponents. There could also be an argument made for Swift’s “Fortnight”, especially from a world-building perspective, but the video feels much more like an art direction/cinematography showcase. (Swift did surprise here last year for “Anti-Hero,” so never say never.) Olivia Rodrigo’s “Get Him Back!” might be a solid pick too, especially with the creation of multiple Olivias, with windows smashing repeatedly and objects crashing.

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Best Editing
It would honestly be a crime if this award didn’t go to Lisa’s “Rockstar,” which has by far the most editing (and, in my opinion, the best) out of all the nominees. It’s quite creative too, so it doesn’t feel like it’s heavily edited just for the sake of being heavily edited. But I could see a scenario where Grande’s “We Can’t Be Friends” takes this instead, which wouldn’t be undeserved; a lot of the storytelling in the video depends on how it’s edited to feel like memories are fading away. But I think Lisa will take this one.

Best Direction
Swift has won this award three times in the last four years, and “Fortnight” was nominated practically everywhere it could be, so it’s intuitive to assume it’s just winning here too. The two runners-up are probably Grande’s “We Can’t Be Friends” and Carpenter’s “Please Please Please,” which is a big hit and was quite buzzy due to the presence of Carpenter’s boyfriend and Oscar nominee Barry Keoghan in the video. I’ll be smart and predict Swift here, which would set a new record for the most wins by a director, but it’s definitely time for MTV to shake things up.

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