2025 Oscar predictions: Who will win (and who could win)
The most eventual Oscar season in years will end on Sunday night with the 97th annual Academy Awards. According to the Gold Derby odds, several nominees should have their speeches prepared, including stars like Demi Moore (The Substance) and Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain). But who will win at the 2025 Oscars — and who could win? Ahead, the final 2025 Oscar predictions in all categories.
BEST PICTURE
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked
More from GoldDerby
Who will win: Anora
Despite the late push from Conclave, with its key wins at the BAFTA Awards and Screen Actors Guild Awards, it would be an overwhelming upset if Anora lost Best Picture on Sunday. Since 2000, only three movies have won top honors from the Producers Guild and Directors Guild and subsequently lost at the Oscars: Brokeback Mountain, La La Land, and 1917. (A fourth movie, Gravity, tied with 12 Years a Slave at the Producers Guild, won at the Directors Guild, and then lost Best Picture to 12 Years a Slave.)
Who could win: Conclave
If Conclave wins Best Picture, it will set a new historical precedent. Never has a movie won Best Film at the BAFTA Awards and Best Ensemble at the Screen Actors Guild Awards and also won Best Picture without support from the Producers Guild, Directors Guild, or Writers Guild. (Several films, including Shakespeare in Love, Crash, Spotlight, and Parasite, won Best Picture with only wins from the Screen Actors Guild and Writers Guild; Conclave was not eligible to win at this year's Writers Guild Awards.) Still, Conclave has emerged as a consensus runner-up pick after its prominent precursor wins. It is also heavily favored to win two key Oscar categories on Sunday night: Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Editing. The last movie to win Best Picture with just those other victories? Argo.
BEST DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
Who will win: Sean Baker, Anora
This year's Director's Guild Awards winner has history on his side. Only six times since 1980 has the DGA winner failed to bring home the Oscar (and one of those losses was Ben Affleck, who was snubbed by the Academy and thus couldn’t compete for the award).
Who could win: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Before Baker pulled off the DGA Awards upset, every expert and awards pundit featured on Gold Derby assumed Corbet had this award in the bag for The Brutalist. Now, only three of 34 are still in the tank for the young filmmaker. Still, there is a world where Corbet might still win: He beat Baker at the BAFTA Awards, and his A24 epic is undeniably the directorial achievement of the year just in terms of its heft. If ever there was a year when the stats might break, it feels like this is the one.
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Fernanda Torres, I'm Still Here
Who will win: Mikey Madison, Anora
Madison remains behind Demi Moore in the Gold Derby odds, but the smart money is on the breakout star to pull off the Best Actress win. Typically, in close acting races, the advantage goes to the performer with the stronger film. This year, that’s Madison, the title character in the Best Picture frontrunner. Madison also beat Moore at the BAFTA Awards. While the group isn’t always the best Oscar predictor, it has anticipated “upset” acting wins in recent years from Olivia Colman (over Glenn Close), Anthony Hopkins (over Chadwick Boseman), and Emma Stone (over Lily Gladstone), three performers who starred in movies that were more popular with the Academy than their competitors’s films.
Who could win: Demi Moore, The Substance
Moore is the current favorite in the odds, and for good reason. She’s an industry veteran and beloved actor who won top precursor prizes this year at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, and Screen Actors Guild Awards. Her film The Substance is also the overwhelming choice for Best Makeup and Hairstyling: That category has matched with an Oscar acting win seven times in the last 15 years, including three years in a row. Based on how the season has gone, if Moore loses on Sunday, it would feel like a major upset.
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Who will win: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Brody all but dominated the televised precursors this year (more on that below), winning Best Actor prizes from the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, and BAFTA Awards for his powerful performance in The Brutalist. As a result, history is on Brody’s side: No one has ever won Best Actor with only a victory at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, which is what would happen if Timothée Chalamet were to win.
Who could win: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
In an unpredictable year like this one, what if Chalamet does make history? With an Oscar win against Brody, not only will Chalamet create a new historical precedent, but he will also replace Brody in the Oscar history book as the youngest Best Actor winner ever. Chalamet’s win at the SAG Awards might have been too little too late – the event took place after Oscar voting had closed – but it also proved the presumed late-breaking momentum for A Complete Unknown might have legs.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Salda?a, Emilia Pérez
Who will win: Zoe Salda?a, Emilia Pérez
There was a time when some thought Salda?a might go down with the ship after the controversy around Karla Sofía Gascón imploded the Emilia Pérez awards campaign. But any doubt about her impending Oscar win has been erased over the last month, thanks to a dominant sweep of the televised precursors. With her expected victory, Salda?a will become the fifth actress to win for a musical performance since 2000.
Who could win: Ariana Grande, Wicked
Unless Grande is the fifth actress to win for a musical performance since 2000. When Wicked screened for the first time last fall, Grande shot up the predictions charts, and some thought she could pull off the victory over Salda?a even before the Emilia Pérez controversy. However, Grande could not turn her several regional critics’ prizes into precursor wins, making her the Ryan Gosling in Barbie to Salda?a’s Robert Downey, Jr. in Oppenheimer. Fortunately for Grande, there’s always next year since Wicked: For Good is dated for a November release.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Who will win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
If Culkin doesn’t win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars on Sunday, it will become one of the biggest Oscar upsets in history. The Emmy Award-winning star has dominated the season for his performance in A Real Pain, winning significant critics’ prizes and key industry awards. Culkin will be the first Best Supporting Actor winner from a movie that wasn’t nominated for Best Picture since Christopher Plummer won in 2012 for Beginners.
Who could win: Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
No disrespect to the other nominees here, but Culkin feels so far out in front that it’s hard even to envision who might pull off the upset win. However, let’s choose Culkin’s former television sibling, Strong, whose turn as Roy Cohn in The Apprentice engendered passionate support from folks like Robert Downey Jr. and even Roger Stone.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing
Who will win: Conclave
Conclave writer Peter Straughan has picked up significant precursor wins at the BAFTA Awards and USC Scripter Awards — and he likely would have also won at the Writers Guild Awards had the screenplay been eligible there. This feels like one of the most considerable locks of the night.
Who could win: Nickel Boys
Nickel Boys was the Writers Guild Awards winner for RaMell Ross and Jocelyn Barnes, and the adaptation of the Pulitzer Prize-winning novel probably would’ve been the alternate choice at other events had Conclave not been among the nominees.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
September 5
The Substance
Who will win: A Real Pain
It’s second in the odds, but A Real Pain is a strong bet to win here — even against Best Picture frontrunner Anora. At the BAFTA Awards, Screenwriter Jesse Eisenberg beat Sean Baker (Anora) and Coralie Fargeat (The Substance). And while Eisenberg lost to Baker at the Writers Guild Awards, it was in a field without Fargeat and the other two nominees (September 5 and The Brutalist). The knock against A Real Pain is that it failed to secure a Best Picture nomination – Eisenberg would be the first Best Original Screenplay winner for a non-Best Picture nominee in 20 years. However, it was a Producers Guild and Writers Guild nominee, with Culkin’s presumed acting win in its back pocket, showing strong industry support.
Who could win: Anora
Baker winning for Anora, especially if Anora is going to win Best Picture, makes a lot of sense: nine times in 25 years has the Best Picture winner with an original screenplay won in this category. (The three losses: Gladiator, The Artist, and The Shape of Water.)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot
Who will win: The Wild Robot
Who could win: Flow
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Black Box Diaries
No Other Land
Porcelain War
Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat
Sugarcane
Who will win: No Other Land
Who could win: Porcelain War
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Emilia Pérez
Flow
The Girl With the Needle
I'm Still Here
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Who will win: I’m Still Here
Who could win: Emilia Pérez
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
“Beautiful Men”
“In the Shadow of the Cypress”
“Magic Candies”
“Wander to Wonder”
“Yuck!”
Who will win: “Magic Candies”
Who could win: “Yuck!”
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
“Death by Numbers”
“I Am Ready, Warden”
“Incident”
“Instruments of a Beating Heart”
“The Only Girl in the Orchestra”
Who will win: “The Only Girl in the Orchestra”
Who could win: “Incident”
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
“A Lien”
“Anuja”
“I’m Not a Robot”
“The Last Ranger”
“The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent”
Who will win: “A Lien”
Who could win: “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent”
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Maria
Nosferatu
Who will win: The Brutalist
Who could win: Nosferatu
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Wicked
Who will win: Wicked
Who could win: Conclave
BEST FILM EDITING
Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
Who will win: Conclave
Who could win: Anora
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
A Different Man
Emilia Pérez
Nosferatu
The Substance
Wicked
Who will win: The Substance
Who could win: Wicked
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Wicked
Who will win: Wicked
Who could win: The Brutalist
BEST SCORE
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
The Wild Robot
Who will win: The Brutalist
Who could win: Conclave
BEST SONG
"El Mal," from Emilia Pérez
"The Journey," from The Six Triple Eight
"Like a Bird," from Sing Sing
"Mi Camino," from Emilia Pérez
“Never Too Late,” from Elton John: Never Too Late
Who will win: “El Mal”
Who could win: “Like a Bird”
BEST SOUND
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
The Wild Robot
Who will win: A Complete Unknown
Who could win: Dune: Part Two
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Alien: Romulus
Better Man
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Wicked
Who will win: Dune: Part Two
Who could win: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
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