2025 Oscar winner predictions: ‘The Brutalist’ takes the early lead in these 5 categories
Since the Oscars nominations were announced on Thursday, 4,000 people have already made their winner predictions at Gold Derby. At this initial stage, The Brutalist is the one to beat, with five forecasted wins: picture, director, actor, cinematographer, and score. Brady Corbet‘s period piece about a Holocaust survivor (Adrien Brody) who hopes to achieve the American Dream received 10 total bids, as did Wicked, while the nominations leader was Emilia Pérez at 13.
Other films with impressive nom tallies on Thursday were A Complete Unknown (eight), Conclave (eight), Anora (six), Dune: Part Two (five), The Substance (five), and Nosferatu (four). See the complete list of nominations.
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The four acting winners are currently expected to play out like this: Brody for actor, Demi Moore (The Substance) for actress, Zoe Salda?a (Emilia Pérez) for supporting actress, and Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) for supporting actor. But the odds could change depending on what happens at pivotal precursor ceremonies like the Critics Choice Awards (Feb. 7), the BAFTAs (Feb. 16), and the Screen Actors Guild Awards (Feb. 23).
Below, see a snapshot in time of our winner predictions for the 2025 Oscars in all 23 categories, updated on Jan. 24. Our predicted winners are denoted in gold. Conan O’Brien will host the 97th annual Academy Awards on March 2.
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Gold Derby’s Oscar odds are based on the combined forecasts of experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, editors who cover awards year-round for this website, top 24 users who had the best accuracy scores last year, and the mass of users who make up our biggest predictions bloc. Track the awards races by exploring all of our charts and graphs, and be sure to sound off in our forums.
BEST PICTURE
1. The Brutalist — 11/2
2. Emilia Pérez — 13/2
3. Anora — 15/2
4. Conclave — 8/1
5. Wicked — 17/2
6. A Complete Unknown — 17/2
7. The Substance — 12/1
8. I’m Still Here — 13/1
9. Dune: Part Two — 15/1
10. Nickel Boys — 18/1
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) — 8/5
2. Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) — 39/10
3. Sean Baker (Anora) — 5/1
4. Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) — 13/2
5. James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) — 8/1
BEST ACTRESS
1. Demi Moore (The Substance) — 21/10
2. Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) — 16/5
3. Mikey Madison (Anora) — 4/1
4. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) — 7/1
5. Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez) — 15/2
BEST ACTOR
1. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) — 11/5
2. Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) — 27/10
3. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) — 9/2
4. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) — 7/1
5. Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) — 17/2
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Zoe Salda?a (Emilia Pérez) — 31/20
2. Ariana Grande (Wicked) — 39/10
3. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) — 6/1
4. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) — 6/1
5. Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown) — 15/2
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) — 83/50
2. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) — 4/1
3. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) — 9/2
4. Yura Borisov (Anora) — 7/1
5. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) — 8/1
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Conclave — 31/20
2. Emilia Pérez — 9/2
3. A Complete Unknown — 5/1
4. Sing Sing — 13/2
5. Nickel Boys — 15/2
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Anora — 17/10
2. The Brutalist — 39/10
3. The Substance — 9/2
4. A Real Pain — 6/1
5. September 5 — 9/1
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. The Brutalist — 8/5
2. Dune: Part Two — 9/2
3. Nosferatu — 5/1
4. Emilia Pérez — 6/1
5. Maria — 15/2
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. Wicked — 3/2
2. Nosferatu — 4/1
3. Gladiator II — 6/1
4. Conclave — 13/2
5. A Complete Unknown — 7/1
BEST FILM EDITING
1. Conclave — 51/20
2. The Brutalist — 31/10
3. Emilia Pérez — 39/10
4. Anora — 11/2
5. Wicked — 15/2
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
1. The Substance — 17/10
2. Wicked — 19/5
3. A Different Man — 11/2
4. Nosferatu — 6/1
5. Emilia Pérez — 15/2
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Wicked — 7/4
2. The Brutalist — 69/20
3. Dune: Part Two — 5/1
4. Conclave — 13/2
5. Nosferatu — 15/2
BEST SCORE
1. The Brutalist — 46/25
2. Conclave — 37/10
3. Emilia Pérez — 9/2
4. The Wild Robot — 13/2
5. Wicked — 7/1
BEST SONG
1. Emilia Pérez (“El Mal”) — 83/50
2. The Six Triple Eight (“The Journey”) — 39/10
3. Emilia Pérez (“Mi Camino”) — 5/1
4. Sing Sing (“Like a Bird”) — 13/2
5. Elton John: Never Too Late (“Never Too Late”) — 7/1
BEST SOUND
1. Wicked — 12/5
2. Dune: Part Two — 31/10
3. A Complete Unknown — 37/10
4. Emilia Pérez — 6/1
5. The Wild Robot — 17/2
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Dune: Part Two — 46/25
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes — 18/5
3. Wicked — 9/2
4. Better Man — 6/1
5. Alien: Romulus — 17/2
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. The Wild Robot — 9/5
2. Flow — 3/1
3. Inside Out 2 — 5/1
4. Memoir of a Snail — 15/2
5. Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl — 8/1
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. No Other Land — 13/8
2. Sugarcane — 4/1
3. Black Box Diaries — 5/1
4. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat — 13/2
5. Porcelain War — 8/1
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
1. Emilia Pérez — 17/10
2. I’m Still Here — 16/5
3. The Seed of the Sacred Fig — 11/2
4. Flow — 13/2
5. The Girl with the Needle — 9/1
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
1. “Beautiful Men” — 23/10
2. “Wander to Wonder” — 7/2
3. “Yuck!” — 19/5
4. “In the Shadow of the Cypress” — 11/2
5. “Magic Candies” — 8/1
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
1. “I Am Ready, Warden” — 11/5
2. “Incident” — 31/10
2. “The Only Girl in the Orchestra” — 5/1
4. “Death by Numbers” — 11/2
5. “Instruments of a Beating Heart” — 8/1
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
1. “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent” — 11/5
2. “Anuja” — 10/3
3. “I’m Not a Robot” — 4/1
4. “A Lien” — 6/1
5. “The Last Ranger” — 8/1
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