2025 Oscars Best Actor Predictions
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Weekly Commentary (Updated Sept. 3, 2024): Ralph Fiennes, who hasn’t been nominated since his roles in two Best Picture winners — 1993’s “Schindler’s List” and 1996’s “The English Patient” — is overdue for recognition. It’s almost Hollywood malpractice that the English actor hasn’t reached the Dolby stage despite standout performances in films like “The Grand Budapest Hotel.” That’s all about to change with his remarkable turn in Edward Berger’s religious thriller “Conclave,” which premiered in Telluride.
In Venice, Daniel Craig is said to deliver a career-best performance in Luca Guadagnino‘s romantic drama “Queer,” playing a gay American expat in 1950s Mexico City. It swept up a packed theater at its world premiere on Tuesday night, earning a 9-minute standing ovation. The news comes after A24 picked it up for distribution in the U.S.
More to come down the pike as we await Timothée Chalamet’s anticipated turn as legendary musician Bob Dylan in James Mangold’s “A Complete Unknown.” And we’ll see if Joaquin Phoenix’s abrupt drop from Todd Haynes’ gay romance movie in August will affect his potential awards prospects for “Joker: Folie à Deux.”
The Denzel Washington lingering question of whether he’ll go lead or support for his standout role in “Gladiator II” remains a mystery. A two-time Oscar winner for “Glory” and “Training Day,” he arguably should have two more statues on his mantle for “Malcolm X” and “Fences.” Said to be the villain in the story and a role that can “go either way” regarding its campaigning. If Washington chose the leading route, this could mimic “Amadeus” (1984), which didn’t choose to divide its stars, getting both Tom Hulce as the titular character and eventual winner F. Murray Abraham recognized in best actor. In this presumed scenario, Washington represents Abraham with Mescal as Hulce.
If Washington opts for supporting actor, Mescal will have the space to himself and land his second nom two years after his deserved mention for “Aftersun.”
Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, and distributors are not final and are subject to change.
** denotes the performer could be campaigned in lead or supporting, and/or the film could open in 2025.
And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank | Performer & Film |
|---|---|
1 | Ralph Fiennes — “Conclave” (Focus Features) |
2 | Timothée Chalamet — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures) |
3 | Colman Domingo — “Sing Sing” (A24) |
4 | Daniel Craig — “Queer” (A24) |
5 | Paul Mescal — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) |
Next in Line
Rank | Performer & Film |
|---|---|
6 | Joaquin Phoenix — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) |
7 | John David Washington — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) |
8 | Sebastian Stan — “The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment) |
9 | Jude Law — “The Order” (Vertical Entertainment) |
10 | Jesse Plemons — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures) ** |
Other Contenders
Rank | Performer & Film |
|---|---|
11 | Adrien Brody — “The Brutalist” (No U.S. Distribution) |
12 | Andrew Garfield — “We Live in Time” (A24) |
13 | Sebastian Stan — “A Different Man” (A24) |
14 | Jesse Eisenberg — “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) |
15 | Tom Hanks — “Here” (Sony Pictures) |
16 | John Magaro — “September 5” (No U.S. Distribution) ** |
17 | Jharrel Jerome — “Unstoppable” (Amazon MGM) |
18 | Kingsley Ben-Adir — “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures) |
19 | Elliott Heffernan — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) |
20 | Michael Shannon — “The End” (Neon) ** |
Also In Contention
Rank | Performer & Film |
|---|---|
21 | Denzel Washington — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) ** |
22 | |
23 | |
24 | |
25 | |
26 | Cillian Murphy — “Small Things Like These” (Lionsgate) |
27 | Austin Butler — “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features) |
28 | Richard Gere — “Oh, Canada” (Kino Lorber) ** |
29 | Timothée Chalamet — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) |
30 | Glen Powell — “Hit Man” (Netflix) |
Eligible Performers (Best Actor)
This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.
** denotes could open in 2025 or compete in another category.
Sebastian Stan — “The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment)
Michael Keaton — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.) **
Robbie Williams — “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)
Jason Schwartzman — “Between the Temples” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Austin Butler — “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features)
Barry Keoghan — “Bird” (Mubi) **
Franz Rogowski — “Bird” (Mubi) **
Channing Tatum — “Blink Twice” (Amazon MGM)
Elliott Heffernan — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) **
Kingsley Ben-Adir — “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures)
Lakieth Stanfield — “The Book of Clarence” (Sony Pictures)
Adrien Brody — “The Brutalist” (No U.S. Distribution) **
Mike Faist — “Challengers” (Amazon MGM) **
Josh O’Connor — “Challengers” (Amazon MGM) **
Timothée Chalamet — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Ralph Fiennes — “Conclave” (Focus Features)
Michael Pitt — “Day of the Fight” (Falling Forward Films)
Hugh Jackman — “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)
Ryan Reynolds — “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)
Sebastian Stan — “A Different Man” (A24)
Izaac Wang — “Dìdi” (Focus Features)
Timothée Chalamet — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
George MacKay — “The End” (Neon) **
Michael Shannon — “The End” (Neon) **
Hitoshi Omika — “Evil Does Not Exist” (Sideshow)
Jude Law — “Firebrand” (Roadside Attractions) **
Paul Mescal — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Denzel Washington — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) **
Michael Keaton — “Goodrich” (Ketchup Entertainment)
Tom Hanks — “Here” (Sony Pictures)
Hugh Grant — “Heretic” (A24) **
Glen Powell — “Hit Man” (Netflix)
Kevin Costner — “Horizon: An American Saga — Chapter 1” (Warner Bros.)
Justice Smith — “I Saw the TV Glow” (A24)
Nicholas Galitzine — “The Idea of You” (Amazon Studios)
René Pérez — “In the Summers” (Music Box Films)
Joaquin Phoenix — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
Jesse Plemons — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures) **
Adam Driver — “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate)
Dev Patel — “Monkey Man” (Universal Pictures)
Ethan Herisse — “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion)
Brandon Wilson — “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion) **
Nicholas Hoult — “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
Richard Gere — “Oh, Canada” (Kino Lorber)
Anthony Hopkins — “One Life” (Bleecker Street)
Jude Law — “The Order” (Vertical Entertainment)
Gary Oldman — “Parthenope” (A24) **
John David Washington — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Daniel Craig — “Queer” (A24)
Kieran Culkin — “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) **
Jesse Eisenberg — “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Kauchani Bratt — “Rez Ball” (Netflix)
Gabriel LaBelle — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures) **
Missagh Zareh — “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon)
Colman Domingo — “Sing Sing” (A24)
Cillian Murphy — “Small Things Like These” (Lionsgate)
Jim Carrey — “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” (Paramount Pictures)
Glen Powell — “Twisters” (Universal Pictures)
Jharrel Jerome — “Unstoppable” (Amazon MGM)
Tom Hardy — “Venom: The Last Dance” (Sony Pictures)
Blake Cameron Jones — “We Grown Now” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Gian Knight Ramirez — “We Grown Now” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Andrew Garfield — “We Live in Time” (A24)
Demián Bichir — “Without Blood” (No U.S. Distribution) **
Daniel Zovatto — “Woman of the Hour” (Netflix) **
More Information (Oscars: Best Actor)
2024 category winner: Cillian Murphy — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline – Full awards season calendar here
Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Oscars Prediction Categories
— | — |
|---|---|
Director | |
Actor in a Leading Role | |
Actor in a Supporting Role | Actress in a Supporting Role |
Original Screenplay | Adapted Screenplay |
Animated Feature | Production Design |
Cinematography | Costume Design |
Film Editing | Makeup and Hairstyling |
Sound | Visual Effects |
Original Score | Original Song |
Documentary Feature | International Feature |
Animated Short | Documentary Short |
Live Action Short | Casting (coming in 2026) |
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
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