2025 Oscars: Gold Derby’s final winner predictions and odds in all 23 categories
Originally published Feb. 28 at 5 a.m. PT; updated March 2 at 9:45 a.m. PT
It's all come down to this. Gold Derby has been predicting the 2025 Oscars since way back in July, when Sing Sing was the initial No. 1 pick to win Best Picture. (Oopsie! That prison drama ultimately only made due with three nominations: Best Actor for Colman Domingo, Best Song for "Like a Bird," and Best Adapted Screenplay.)
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Over the past eight months, Anora has enjoyed the first-place position in our rankings for most of the time, aside from when The Brutalist briefly soared to the top after dominating the Golden Globes. Anora reclaimed the top spot following its victories at the Producers Guild, Directors Guild, and Writers Guild. Meanwhile, Conclave has ascended to its highest position yet on our Best Picture chart, at No. 2, following huge wins at BAFTA and Screen Actors Guild.
Anora, about a Brooklyn sex worker who marries the son of a Russian oligarch, and The Brutalist, which focuses on a Holocaust survivor who hopes to achieve the American Dream, are expected to tie with a leading three Oscars apiece. Anora should take Best Picture, Best Director for Sean Baker, and Best Original Screenplay; and The Brutalist should claim Best Actor for Adrien Brody, Best Cinematography, and Best Score.
Several other films are forecasted to walk away with two wins each: Conclave (Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Film Editing); The Substance (Best Actress for Demi Moore and Best Makeup & Hairstyling); Emilia Pérez (Best Supporting Actress for Zoe Salda?a and Best Song for "El Mal"); Wicked (Best Costume Design and Best Production Design); and Dune: Part Two (Best Sound and Best Visual Effects).
Gold Derby's Oscar odds are based on the combined forecasts of more than 12,600 people (a new record), including experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, editors who cover awards year-round for this website, and the mass of users who make up our biggest predictions bloc. Conan O'Brien will host the 97th annual Academy Awards on March 2.
Below, see a snapshot of Gold Derby's final winner predictions (denoted in gold) for the 2025 Oscars in all 23 categories, updated on Feb. 27. See how the race has changed by examining our previous Oscar snapshots on Jan. 24, Feb. 1, Feb. 7, Feb. 9, Feb. 18, and Feb. 24. Track the awards by exploring all of our charts and graphs, and be sure to sound off in our forums.
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BEST PICTURE
1. Anora — 5/1
2. Conclave — 6/1
3. The Brutalist — 7/1
4. A Complete Unknown — 9/1
5. Wicked — 9/1
6. Emilia Pérez — 11/1
7. The Substance — 23/2
8. I'm Still Here — 12/1
9. Dune: Part Two — 15/1
10. Nickel Boys — 18/1
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Sean Baker (Anora) — 8/5
2. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) — 71/20
3. Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) — 6/1
4. James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) — 13/2
5. Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) — 15/2
BEST ACTRESS
1. Demi Moore (The Substance) — 39/20
2. Mikey Madison (Anora) — 82/25
3. Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here) — 19/5
4. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) — 15/2
5. Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez) — 19/2
BEST ACTOR
1. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) — 7/4
2. Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) — 31/10
3. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) — 5/1
4. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) — 15/2
5. Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) — 17/2
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Zoe Salda?a (Emilia Pérez) — 3/2
2. Ariana Grande (Wicked) — 9/2
3. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) — 5/1
4. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) — 7/1
5. Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown) — 15/2
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) — 29/20
2. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) — 5/1
3. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) — 5/1
4. Yura Borisov (Anora) — 13/2
5. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) — 7/1
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Conclave — 3/2
2. A Complete Unknown — 9/2
3. Nickel Boys — 5/1
4. Sing Sing — 13/2
5. Emilia Pérez — 15/2
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Anora — 2/1
2. A Real Pain — 31/10
3. The Substance — 9/2
4. The Brutalist — 6/1
5. September 5 — 9/1
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. The Brutalist — 31/20
2. Nosferatu — 4/1
3. Dune: Part Two — 5/1
4. Maria — 13/2
5. Emilia Pérez — 8/1
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. Wicked — 29/20
2. Nosferatu — 4/1
3. Conclave — 11/2
4. Gladiator II — 7/1
5. A Complete Unknown — 7/1
BEST FILM EDITING
1. Conclave — 17/10
2. Anora — 37/10
3. The Brutalist — 9/2
4. Emilia Pérez — 7/1
5. Wicked — 15/2
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
1. The Substance — 3/2
2. Wicked — 4/1
3. A Different Man — 5/1
4. Nosferatu — 6/1
5. Emilia Pérez — 17/2
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Wicked — 3/2
2. The Brutalist — 4/1
3. Dune: Part Two — 11/2
4. Conclave — 13/2
5. Nosferatu — 15/2
BEST SCORE
1. The Brutalist — 17/10
2. Conclave — 18/5
3. The Wild Robot — 5/1
4. Emilia Pérez — 13/2
5. Wicked — 15/2
BEST SONG
1. Emilia Pérez ("El Mal") — 7/4
2. The Six Triple Eight ("The Journey") — 19/5
3. Sing Sing ("Like a Bird") — 5/1
4. Elton John: Never Too Late ("Never Too Late") — 6/1
5. Emilia Pérez ("Mi Camino") — 7/1
BEST SOUND
1. Dune: Part Two — 39/20
2. A Complete Unknown — 71/20
3. Wicked — 37/10
4. Emilia Pérez — 15/2
5. The Wild Robot — 8/1
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Dune: Part Two — 3/2
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes — 9/2
3. Wicked — 5/1
4. Better Man — 6/1
5. Alien: Romulus — 17/2
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. The Wild Robot — 46/25
2. Flow — 29/10
3. Inside Out 2 — 11/2
4. Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl — 13/2
5. Memoir of a Snail — 8/1
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. No Other Land — 15/8
2. Porcelain War — 17/5
3. Sugarcane — 5/1
4. Black Box Diaries — 7/1
5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat — 7/1
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
1. I'm Still Here — 19/10
2. Emilia Pérez — 3/1
3. Flow — 11/2
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig — 6/1
5. The Girl with the Needle — 17/2
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
1. "Yuck!" — 53/20
2. "Beautiful Men" — 19/5
3. "Magic Candies" — 4/1
4. "Wander to Wonder" — 9/2
5. "In the Shadow of the Cypress" — 13/2
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
1. "The Only Girl in the Orchestra" — 53/20
2. "I Am Ready, Warden" — 3/1
3. "Incident" — 18/5
4. "Death by Numbers" — 6/1
5. "Instruments of a Beating Heart" — 15/2
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
1. "A Lien" — 53/20
2. "The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent" — 27/10
3. "Anuja" — 5/1
4. "I’m Not a Robot" — 6/1
5. "The Last Ranger" — 13/2
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