2025 Oscars slugfest: Experts predict fiercely competitive Best Actress race and potential historic nomination
“The most competitive acting category this year…by miles.”
That was the feeling in the room when five top Oscar experts from major media outlets took their shot at predicting this year’s Best Actress race: Gold Derby’s Debra Birnbaum, Deadline’s Pete Hammond, Variety’s Clayton Davis, The Hollywood Reporter’s Scott Feinberg, and Indiewire’s Anne Thompson. Watch their 2025 Oscars slugfest video above.
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Davis says there are just two locks: Angelina Jolie in “Maria” and Mikey Madison in “Anora.” “You can swap the order if you want, but I think those two take it to the bank,” he asserts. “Then, we feel really good about Karla Sofía Gascón in ‘Emilia Perez,’ which would make history as the first transgender actor to be nominated. It’s a wonderful performance and well-deserved.” After that, he rattles off Demi Moore in “The Substance,” Tilda Swinton in “The Room Next Door,” Saoirse Ronan in “The Outrun,” and Marianne Jean-Baptiste in “Hard Truths.” And this party’s just getting started.
The mention of Jean-Baptiste sparks the first debate, with Birnbaum asking, “Are people going to see it?”
SEE 2025 Oscars slugfest: Experts debate Best Actor and who will take that fifth spot
Hammond goes another direction, but with a warning. “Pamela Anderson in ‘The Last Showgirl,’ here’s her problem,” he states. “She’s so good in it. She does it without makeup and everything, but she’s playing against her own reputation. The Academy has proven with Jennifer Lopez that they won’t go there. I think that’s so sad and unfortunate because Pam Anderson is just a revelation in this movie. I hope they give her a chance.”
Thompson interjects, “The slot that will go to the sexy performance is Nicole Kidman in ‘Babygirl.’ She’s just extraordinary.” Davis is skeptical Kidman will get in, saying, “We’re talking about sole nominees. Your nominations have to tell me a story.”
Feinberg brings the conversation back around to Jean-Baptiste, proclaiming her character is “so difficult to warm up to.” He adds, “It’s not a comment on how good of a job she did. She’s a great actress, but it’s very hard for a lot of people to get through this movie.”
Next, Feinberg states, “In a fair world, Fernanda Torres would get in [for ‘I’m Still Here’].” Hammond jumps in, “That would be the international vote,” before Thompson adds, “That movie is playing very well, it’s just such a competitive category.”
Other contenders brought up include Cynthia Erivo in “Wicked,” June Squibb in “Thelma,” Kate Winslet in “Lee,” Zendaya in “Challengers,” and Renate Reinsve in “Armand.”
Who do YOU think will be nominated for the Best Actress Oscar?
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