2026 Oscar predictions: 25 incredibly early contenders to know
People like to say, “It’s never too early” to do something, but that’s not always true. For example, it’s too early to predict next year’s Academy Awards before this year’s Academy Awards. But the 2025 Oscars are over, so now it’s time to start making predictions about what films will contend for the Oscars next year.
It’s already looking like the 98th Academy Awards will have a stronger field than the 97th. Blue chip filmmakers are returning from long breaks with exciting casts in tow. Each Safdie brother has their own A24 sports drama. There’s a new Avatar movie. It’s going to be an exciting, unpredictable year.
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Here are 25 films likely to contend for 2026 Academy Award nominations in many different categories, not just Best Picture. Some of them are locks, some are long shots, and some will peter out entirely, replaced in contention by movies that aren’t on our radar yet. Consider this a fun conversation starter to keep yourself entertained through the months between the Oscar season's end and the Emmy season's start.
After the Hunt
Luca Guadagnino went 0-for-2 for 2024 with Challengers and Queer, but he’s coming back with his most serious contender since Call Me by Your Name with this star-studded Amazon MGM Studios thriller. Julia Roberts leads the cast as a college professor grappling with secrets from her past, along with Ayo Edebiri, Andrew Garfield, Michael Stuhlbarg, and Chloe Sevigny.
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Based on precedent, it is the surest bet for a Best Picture nomination in the whole field. James Cameron’s first two Avatar films were nominated for the top prize and won Best Visual Effects, and there’s no reason to expect anything different for the third outing. All we know for sure about Fire and Ash’s plot so far is that it will introduce fire Na’vi. But what else do you need to know?
The Ballad of a Small Player
With All Quiet on the Western Front and Conclave, Edward Berger has established himself as a big player at the Oscars. He’s wasting no time returning with his next film, a Macau-set gambling thriller starring Colin Farrell, Tilda Swinton, and Fala Chen. Netflix is putting it out, so people will definitely see it.
Bugonia
Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone, and Jesse Plemons are teaming up again for a black comedy with Oscar chances closer to Poor Things than Kinds of Kindness. Stone plays a pharmaceutical CEO who Plemons's character kidnaps because he believes she’s an alien on a mission to destroy Earth. Focus has it slated for an early November release date.
Deliver Me From Nowhere
This year’s A Complete Unknown stars Jeremy Allen White as Bruce Springsteen while recording his seminal album Nebraska. The Scott Cooper biopic might not crack the top 10 in this crowded field, but acting bids for White and Jeremy Strong as Springsteen’s manager, Jon Landau, are possible.
Die, My Love
This year’s predicted Substance-style outside-the-box contender is this horror comedy from independent cinema icon Lynne Ramsay. Jennifer Lawrence stars as a woman described as being “engulfed by love and madness.” Robert Pattinson plays her husband, LaKeith Stanfield plays her lover. Sissy Spacek and Nick Nolte are in it, too. Martin Scorsese executive-produces. Rumored to premiere at Cannes, A24 and Neon will probably fight over this one.
F1
Top Gun: Maverick director Joseph Kosinski teams up with Brad Pitt for a big-budget Formula 1 drama with blockbuster potential (if it’s good). It won’t be an above-the-line contender, but it will look and sound incredible and could land sound and editing nominations (Stephen Mirrione, Academy Award winner for Traffic and nominee for Babel and The Revenant, is cutting it).
Frankenstein
Guillermo del Toro’s first live-action film since Best Picture nominee Nightmare Alley (his most recent film, Pinocchio, won Best Animated Feature) stars Oscar Isaac as Victor Frankenstein and Jacob Elordi as Frankenstein’s monster. Del Toro has been trying to make this movie for almost 20 years, and his goal is to make the best Frankenstein movie ever. Netflix is the distributor, and this might be the streaming service’s best chance for a Best Picture win to date.
Hamnet
Nomadland Best Picture winner Chloe Zhao returns from her ill-fated excursion into the Marvel Cinematic Universe with a historical indie drama that’s more her speed. Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal play Agnes and William Shakespeare grieving the death of their son, Hamnet. The film is based on Maggie O'Farrell's 2020 novel. This could be the one that gets Buckley her first Oscar.
Highest 2 Lowest
Spike Lee’s first feature in five years — the prolific filmmaker’s most extended break between films ever — finds him reuniting with Denzel Washington for this reimagining of Akira Kurosawa’s 1963 crime drama High and Low. It’s an A24/Apple TV+ joint, which could mean it’s not the highest-priority contender, but it will be interesting regardless. The cast includes A$AP Rocky, Ice Spice, and Jeffrey Wright.
Jay Kelly
Noah Baumbach’s latest Netflix dramedy stars George Clooney, Adam Sandler, Laura Dern, Billy Crudup, and about 25 other accomplished and recognizable actors. Something will have to go horribly wrong for this not to get at least a Best Original Screenplay nomination for Baumbach and Emily Mortimer (who’s also in the movie), and there’s already buzz for Best Picture, Clooney for Best Actor, and Sandler in supporting.
The Life of Chuck
Tom Hiddleston stars in horror maestro Mike Flanagan’s adaptation of a Stephen King novella – but this isn’t a horror movie. It’s a bittersweet sci-fi-ish drama that’s thematically more like The Green Mile. The June release date and pedigree of this one make us think it’s a bit of a longshot (Flanagan and King are beloved, but not necessarily by the Academy). Still, the Toronto People’s Choice Award precursor last year and Neon’s involvement as distributor signal it could potentially crack the Best Picture field.
The Lost Bus
Paul Greengrass’ latest tense based-on-true-events drama stars Matthew McConaughey as a bus driver trying to get a school bus full of children and their teacher (America Ferrera) out of burning Paradise, Calif., during the Camp Fire in 2018. McConaughey is already getting Best Actor buzz for his performance.
Marty Supreme
This is A24’s big hope this year, with the distributor giving it a prime Christmas Day release date. Timothée Chalamet stars as a 1950s table tennis champion in Josh Safdie’s solo debut. The wild cast also includes Gwyneth Paltrow, Tyler the Creator, Abel Ferrara, Fran Drescher, and Kevin “Mr. Wonderful” O’Leary. Timmy didn’t win for Bob, but he might win for Marty.
Michael
The Michael Jackson biopic is sure to be controversial and a huge hit. Reviews will probably be negative, but it could take the Bohemian Rhapsody crowd-pleaser spot at the Oscars. Jaafar Jackson could become the latest actor nominated for an Oscar in their film debut for his performance as his uncle. Colman Domingo could pick up his third consecutive Oscar nomination for playing Michael’s notorious father, Joe.
Nouvelle Vague
This is the ever-restless Richard Linklater’s French-language debut. It’s a showbiz drama about the making of Jean-Luc Godard’s Breathless. Zoey Deutch might earn her first Best Actress nomination for her performance as Jean Seberg. If France is willing to put forward a movie from an American director and star, it could be a Best International Feature contender.
One Battle After Another (officially still untitled)
Paul Thomas Anderson is back for his first film since 2021’s Licorice Pizza with the biggest budget and supposedly highest commercial prospects of his career. Early reports describe it as PTA’s version of an action comedy. Leonardo DiCaprio stars, with Best Supporting Actor buzz building for Sean Penn and Best Supporting Actress juice for Regina Hall. This one would sweep if the 2026 Oscars were held today and based solely on online hype.
Pressure
This adaptation of a 2014 play by David Haig tells the story of meteorologist James Stagg’s (Andrew Scott) role in planning the D-Day invasion. Brendan Fraser plays Gen. Dwight D. Eisenhower. Focus picked up the distribution rights, and no studio is better at getting Oscar nominations for mannered British period pieces (not derogatory).
The Smashing Machine
Dwayne Johnson is making his serious turn in this A24 biopic about MMA fighter Mark Kerr, an influential figure in the sport who struggled with drug addiction throughout his career. Benny Safdie directs it, and the competition between the Safdie brothers, who used to be creative partners, will be one of the big narratives of the season.
Sentimental Value
Joachim Trier’s follow-up to his Best International Feature nominee, The Worst Person in the World, finds him reuniting with star Reinate Reinsve for a family dramedy featuring Stellan Skarsg?rd and Cory Michael Smith. Neon is distributing, and it’s expected to premiere at Cannes. Reinsve is one to watch in Best Actress.
Train Dreams
One of the only 2026 contenders that anyone has actually seen yet, this Sundance breakout from Sing Sing’s Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar stars Joel Edgerton as a logger trying to find his place in a changing world, with Felicity Jones as his wife. Netflix picked it up out of the festival, believing that it has awards potential.
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Rian Johnson’s first two Knives Out movies got screenplay nominations, so predicting the third one will, too, is a safe bet. Daniel Craig returns as investigator Benoit Blanc, with another all-star cast including Glenn Close, Josh Brolin, Mila Kunis, Jeremy Renner, Kerry Washington, and many more.
Wicked: For Good
Part one of the Wicked saga earned 10 nominations this year, and there’s a chance part two could increase that tally next year, as it has an original song, which the first chapter did not. And even if Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande get crowded out this year, the film is a near-lock for a Best Picture nomination.
Wildwood
All five of stop-motion animation studio Laika’s meticulously crafted films to date have been nominated for Best Animated Feature, and there’s no reason to suspect its sixth, fantasy adventure Wildwood, won’t also be nominated. The voice cast includes Peyton Elizabeth Lee, Jacob Tremblay, Carey Mulligan, and Mahershala Ali.
Zootopia 2
The first Zootopia won Best Animated Feature way back in 2015. If the sequel is even half as good as the original, it will earn a nomination. If it’s three-quarters as good, it could win.
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