How Adrien Brody in ‘The Brutalist’ is like Cate Blanchett in ‘Tár’ — and why Brody should avoid a similar Oscar fate
The Brutalist heads into Sunday’s Oscars ceremony as one of 2024’s most acclaimed films, an epic piece of filmmaking that earned 10 Oscar nominations, including Best Picture and Best Director for Brady Corbet. However, while the film was once considered the Best Picture favorite, its best bets for Oscar glory on Sunday are in other categories: Best Score, Best Cinematography, and presumably Best Actor. Or at least so it appeared before the Screen Actors Guild Awards, when A Complete Unknown star Timothée Chalamet pulled off the upset win over The Brutalist lead — and season-long frontrunner — Adrien Brody. With Chalamet’s surprise SAG win, how worried should Brody be about a Timothée triumph at the Academy Awards?
Before answering that, let’s flash back to 2022. That year, Todd Field’s Tár was in a similar boat, the cineaste favorite about a fictional character so fully embodied by an actor that audiences left the theater wondering if the movie was based on real life. Tár starred Cate Blanchett in an acclaimed turn as the fictional composer Lydia Tár, whose towering career threatens to collapse when past mistakes come to light. Overall, the film was far from dominant on the awards circuit. However, much like what happened with Brody’s excellent turn as László Toth, the architect at the heart of The Brutalist, Blanchett’s performance was lauded with praise. The two-time Oscar winner walked away with Best Actress awards from BAFTA, the Golden Globes, and numerous critics’ awards (including Critics Choice Awards), but notably, she lost at both SAG and the Oscars (both of which went to Michelle Yeoh for excellent work in Everything Everywhere All at Once).
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But Tár faced stiff competition in a year where Everything Everywhere had considerable theatrical success and was welcomed by the Academy (to the tune of seven Oscar wins from 11 nominations). The multiverse-hopping sci-fi-action-comedy was an enjoyable, diverse film with progressive themes. It also reinvigorated Ke Huy Quan's career and allowed the Academy to honor genre legends Jamie Lee Curtis and Yeoh. With a decades-spanning career with different stages and pauses, Yeoh was widely perceived as overdue.
This year, there is no clear Everything Everywhere-level frontrunner with indomitable momentum, especially in the Best Actor field. A Complete Unknown landed eight nominations, but it’s hardly the momentum-driven behemoth that Everything Everywhere was (in fact, A Complete Unknown is not currently predicted to win a single Oscar on Sunday night). Chalamet has received many nominations since his Oscar-nominated turn in Call Me by Your Name — and he has starred in several Best Picture nominees, including two this year (the other being Dune: Part Two). However, he’s also still a rising star facing the Academy’s history of awarding actors later in their careers. That’s a bad omen for aspiring young talent.
In short, the SAG win does suggest strong Chalamet momentum — but with several strings. While the actors’ branch is the Academy’s largest, with roughly 1,000 members, it pales in comparison to the SAG-AFTRA voting membership, which is more than 160,000. Also, the entire Academy votes for its winners, meaning even if Chalamet has actors’ branch support, he might not rate as highly with the rest of the membership, which favored The Brutalist to A Complete Unknown in terms of overall nominations. Then there’s history, too: No one has ever won Best Actor with only a SAG Award win as their sole precursor. That makes Chalamet feel less like Yeoh and more like Denzel Washington, who won at the SAG Awards in 2017 for Fences after falling to Manchester by the Sea star Casey Affleck at several other precursor events. In the end, Washington lost at the Oscars and Affleck, with an emotional and undeniable performance, won.
Chalamet is an impressive young talent, but he's still a young talent. That’s why even if he loses on Sunday, he’ll probably be back in competition at the Oscars again very soon (maybe as soon as next year for the upcoming Marty Supreme). “I can’t downplay the significance of this award because it means the most to me, and I know we’re in a subjective business, but the truth is I’m really in pursuit of greatness. I know people don’t usually talk like that, but I want to be one of the greats,” Chalamet said in his much-discussed SAG Awards acceptance speech. “I’m inspired by the greats. I’m inspired by the greats here tonight. I’m as inspired by Daniel Day-Lewis, Marlon Brando, and Viola Davis as I am by Michael Jordan, Michael Phelps, and I want to be up there. So I’m deeply grateful. This doesn’t signify that, but it’s a little more fuel. It’s a little more ammo to keep going.”
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