AI Oscar predictions drop ‘Gladiator II,’ fully embrace ‘The Brutalist’
One month ago, we asked Gemini AI for Oscar predictions, and it endorsed Gladiator II as a contender for picture, director (Ridley Scott), and supporting actor (Denzel Washington). Well, Google’s artificial intelligence bot has rebooted, and it now believes the mixed-reviewed sequel will be mostly forgotten come Oscars time. In fact, Gemini’s current picks in the six main categories (picture, director, and acting) align much more closely with Gold Derby’s overall choices.
You can see Gemini’s forecasted nominations below, where The Brutalist, a period piece about a Holocaust survivor who’s trying to live the American Dream, is expected to clean up with bids for picture, director (Brady Corbet), actor (Adrien Brody), supporting actress (Felicity Jones), and supporting actor (Guy Pearce). Meanwhile, Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, and Emilia Pérez are expected to nab four noms apiece in the six main races.
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For the uninitiated, Gemini is a chatbot that uses “machine learning and natural language processing to provide human-like responses to text, image, and audio prompts.” Comparatively, Gold Derby‘s Oscar predictions are derived from the combined forecasts of four unique groups: experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, editors who cover awards year-round for this website, top 24 users who had the best accuracy scores last year, and the mass of users who make up our biggest predictions bloc. Who do you think has the better predictions? Be sure to sound off in our movie forums.
SEE 2025 Oscars calendar update
There are two main categories in which Gemini’s Oscar predictions match up perfectly with ours: Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress. In the other races, our lineups only disagree by one contender. Gold Derby believes that the Demi Moore-led horror film The Substance will receive a Best Picture nomination, while the AI bot says that slot will go Nickel Boys, an adaptation of the Pulitzer Prize-winning novel.
We’ll continue to update AI’s predictions throughout the campaign. And we’ll see who’s the most accurate when the nominations are announced on Jan. 23.
AI predictions for Best Picture:
1. Anora
2. The Brutalist
3. Wicked
4. Conclave
5. Dune: Part Two
6. Emilia Pérez
7. A Complete Unknown
8. A Real Pain
9. Nickel Boys
10. Sing Sing
Gold Derby predictions for Best Picture match nine for 10, just swap Nickel Boys for The Substance.
AI predictions for Best Director:
1. Edward Berger for Conclave
2. Jacques Audiard for Emilia Pérez
3. Sean Baker for Anora
4. Brady Corbet for The Brutalist
5. James Mangold for A Complete Unknown
Gold Derby predictions for Best Director match four for five, just swap Mangold for Coralie Fargeat (The Substance).
AI predictions for Best Actor:
1. Adrien Brody for The Brutalist
2. Ralph Fiennes for Conclave
3. Timothée Chalamet for A Complete Unknown
4. Colman Domingo for Sing Sing
5. Daniel Craig for Queer
Gold Derby predictions for Best Actor match five for five.
AI predictions for Best Actress:
1. Mikey Madison for Anora
2. Demi Moore for The Substance
3. Cynthia Erivo for Wicked
4. Karla Sofía Gascón for Emilia Pérez
5. Angelina Jolie for Maria
Gold Derby predictions for Best Actress match four for five, just swap Jolie for Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here).
AI predictions for Best Supporting Actor:
1. Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain
2. Yura Borisov for Anora
3. Edward Norton for A Complete Unknown
4. Guy Pearce for The Brutalist
5. Clarence Maclin for Sing Sing
Gold Derby predictions for Best Supporting Actor match four for five, just swap Maclin for Denzel Washington (Gladiator II).
AI predictions for Best Supporting Actress:
1. Zoe Salda?a for Emilia Pérez
2. Ariana Grande for Wicked
3. Isabella Rossellini for Conclave
4. Felicity Jones for The Brutalist
5. Margaret Qualley for The Substance
Gold Derby predictions for Best Supporting Actress match five for five.
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