‘Anora’ skyrockets to No. 1 in Best Picture Oscar odds after huge upsets at PGA, DGA, Critics Choice
Oscar pundits everywhere have been feverishly updating their predictions following Anora‘s sweep of top prizes at this weekend’s Critics Choice, Producers Guild, and Directors Guild awards. In fact, the film is now back at No. 1 in Gold Derby’s Best Picture Oscar odds.
Sean Baker‘s independent film about a Brooklyn sex worker (Mikey Madison) who marries into the wrong family previously topped our rankings between September and January, but lost its first place position soon after it was skunked at the Golden Globes. That’s when The Brutalist, Brady Corbet‘s period piece about a Holocaust survivor (Adrien Brody) who hopes to achieve the American Dream, took the lead in the Gold Derby odds.
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Anora triumphed at Critics Choice in Best Picture after being blanked in its other races, including Best Actress (Madison lost to Demi Moore for The Substance), Best Director (Baker lost to Jon M. Chu for Wicked), Best Supporting Actor (Yura Borisov lost to Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain), and Best Original Screenplay (Baker lost to Coralie Fargeat for The Substance). If the pattern were to repeat at next month’s Academy Awards, Anora would join Grand Hotel (1932), The Broadway Melody (1929), and Mutiny on the Bounty (1935) as the only movies to win Best Picture and nothing else.
Going into the weekend, The Brutalist was the prohibitive favorite to win Best Picture at the PGAs and Corbet for director at the DGAs. However, with Baker and his film locking down both of those influential precursors, Anora is now the one to beat. Since 2000, there have only been four years in which a movie prevailed at both guilds but lost the eventual Best Picture Oscar: 2005 (Brokeback Mountain lost to Crash), 2013 (Gravity lost to 12 Years a Slave after they tied at PGA), 2016 (La La Land lost to Moonlight), and 2019 (1917 lost to Parasite).
Below, see a snapshot of our winner predictions for the 2025 Oscars in all 23 categories, updated on Feb. 9. Gold Derby’s predicted winners are denoted in gold. See how the race has changed by examining the previous Oscar snapshots on Jan. 24, Feb. 1, and Feb. 7. Conan O’Brien will host the 97th annual Academy Awards on March 2.
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BEST PICTURE
1. Anora — 11/2
2. The Brutalist — 6/1
3. Conclave — 15/2
4. A Complete Unknown — 17/2
5. Wicked — 9/1
6. Emilia Pérez — 9/1
7. The Substance — 11/1
8. I’m Still Here — 23/2
9. Dune: Part Two — 14/1
10. Nickel Boys — 18/1
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) — 43/20
2. Sean Baker (Anora) — 14/5
3. Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) — 6/1
4. Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) — 6/1
5. James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) — 7/1
BEST ACTRESS
1. Demi Moore (The Substance) — 39/20
2. Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) — 16/5
3. Mikey Madison (Anora) — 4/1
4. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) — 7/1
5. Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez) — 9/1
BEST ACTOR
1. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) — 41/20
2. Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) — 57/20
3. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) — 9/2
4. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) — 7/1
5. Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) — 8/1
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Zoe Salda?a (Emilia Pérez) — 17/10
2. Ariana Grande (Wicked) — 17/5
3. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) — 6/1
4. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) — 6/1
5. Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown) — 15/2
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) — 13/8
2. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) — 4/1
3. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) — 9/2
4. Yura Borisov (Anora) — 13/2
5. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) — 15/2
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Conclave — 13/8
2. A Complete Unknown — 4/1
3. Emilia Pérez — 6/1
4. Sing Sing — 6/1
5. Nickel Boys — 13/2
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Anora — 9/5
2. The Substance — 4/1
3. The Brutalist — 9/2
4. A Real Pain — 11/2
5. September 5 — 17/2
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. The Brutalist — 17/10
2. Dune: Part Two — 19/5
3. Nosferatu — 9/2
4. Emilia Pérez — 7/1
5. Maria — 8/1
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. Wicked — 3/2
2. Nosferatu — 4/1
3. Gladiator II — 6/1
4. Conclave — 6/1
5. A Complete Unknown — 7/1
BEST FILM EDITING
1. Conclave — 27/10
2. The Brutalist — 17/5
3. Anora — 19/5
4. Emilia Pérez — 5/1
5. Wicked — 7/1
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
1. The Substance — 83/50
2. Wicked — 4/1
3. A Different Man — 5/1
4. Nosferatu — 6/1
5. Emilia Pérez — 8/1
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Wicked — 7/4
2. The Brutalist — 18/5
3. Dune: Part Two — 5/1
4. Conclave — 13/2
5. Nosferatu — 15/2
BEST SCORE
1. The Brutalist — 15/8
2. Conclave — 17/5
3. Emilia Pérez — 11/2
4. The Wild Robot — 6/1
5. Wicked — 15/2
BEST SONG
1. Emilia Pérez (“El Mal”) — 9/5
2. The Six Triple Eight (“The Journey”) — 4/1
3. Emilia Pérez (“Mi Camino”) — 5/1
4. Sing Sing (“Like a Bird”) — 6/1
5. Elton John: Never Too Late (“Never Too Late”) — 6/1
BEST SOUND
1. Wicked — 41/20
2. Dune: Part Two — 59/20
3. A Complete Unknown — 9/2
4. Emilia Pérez — 7/1
5. The Wild Robot — 17/2
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Dune: Part Two — 83/50
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes — 9/2
3. Wicked — 5/1
4. Better Man — 11/2
5. Alien: Romulus — 8/1
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. The Wild Robot — 19/10
2. Flow — 57/20
3. Inside Out 2 — 5/1
4. Memoir of a Snail — 15/2
5. Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl — 8/1
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. No Other Land — 9/5
2. Sugarcane — 37/10
3. Black Box Diaries — 11/2
4. Porcelain War — 6/1
5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat — 13/2
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
1. I’m Still Here — 21/10
2. Emilia Pérez — 27/10
3. The Seed of the Sacred Fig — 11/2
4. Flow — 6/1
5. The Girl with the Needle — 17/2
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
1. “Beautiful Men” — 43/20
2. “Wander to Wonder” — 17/5
3. “Yuck!” — 4/1
4. “In the Shadow of the Cypress” — 6/1
5. “Magic Candies” — 17/2
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
1. “I Am Ready, Warden” — 39/20
2. “Incident” — 10/3
2. “The Only Girl in the Orchestra” — 9/2
4. “Death by Numbers” — 6/1
5. “Instruments of a Beating Heart” — 8/1
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
1. “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent” — 41/20
2. “Anuja” — 10/3
3. “I’m Not a Robot” — 9/2
4. “A Lien” — 6/1
5. “The Last Ranger” — 8/1
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Gold Derby’s Oscar odds are based on the combined forecasts of more than 8,300 people (and counting), including experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, editors who cover awards year-round for this website, top 24 users who had the best accuracy scores last year, and the mass of users who make up our biggest predictions bloc. Track the awards races by exploring all of our charts and graphs, and be sure to sound off in our forums.
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