‘Anora’ still out front in Best Picture Oscar odds, ‘Conclave’ jumps to second place

Marcus James Dixon

Mon, February 24, 2025 at 10:00 PM UTC

6 min read

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With just days to go before the 2025 Oscar ceremony, Anora is still Gold Derby's pick to win Best Picture, despite losing to Conclave at the Screen Actors Guild Awards on Sunday.

Sean Baker's risqué independent film, about a Brooklyn sex worker (Mikey Madison) who marries the son of a Russian oligarch, claimed three key precursors in recent weeks at the Producers Guild, Directors Guild, and Writers Guild. The only contender that historically won all three of those specific prizes and failed to take the Best Picture Oscar was Brokeback Mountain (2005). The Ang Lee film infamously lost to Crash, which won the SAG Award for Best Cast.

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As for Edward Berger’s fictional tale chronicling the scandals within the Vatican following the pope's death, it's now in the runner-up position to win Best Picture. Conclave's back-to-back victories at the SAG Awards (Best Cast) and BAFTA (Best Film) are hard to ignore. The movie also has broad support overall, receiving a lot of first-, second-, and third-place votes from Academy members, per Gold Derby's secret Oscar ballots.

But what about The Brutalist? Brady Corbet's period piece, which focuses on a Holocaust survivor (Adrien Brody) who hopes to achieve the American Dream, nabbed 10 Oscar nominations and is out front for three of them: Best Actor, Best Cinematography, and Best Score. Its notable victories this season were at the Golden Globes (picture and director) and BAFTA (director), but it couldn't quite clinch any of the other major precursors.

Below, see a snapshot of Gold Derby's winner picks for the 2025 Oscars in all 23 categories, updated on Feb. 24. The predicted champions are denoted in gold. See how the race has changed by examining our previous Oscar snapshots on Jan. 24, Feb. 1, Feb. 7, Feb. 9, and Feb. 18. Track the awards races by exploring all of our charts and graphs, and be sure to sound off in our forums.

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BEST PICTURE

1. Anora — 9/2
2. Conclave — 13/2
3. The Brutalist — 7/1
4. A Complete Unknown — 9/1
5. Wicked — 9/1
6. Emilia Pérez — 21/2
7. The Substance — 23/2
8. I'm Still Here — 13/1
9. Dune: Part Two — 15/1
10. Nickel Boys — 16/1

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Sean Baker (Anora) — 9/5
2. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) — 31/10
3. Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) — 6/1
4. James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) — 13/2
5. Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) — 15/2

BEST ACTRESS

1. Demi Moore (The Substance) — 21/10
2. Mikey Madison (Anora) — 31/10
3. Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here) — 37/10
4. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) — 7/1
5. Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez) — 19/2

BEST ACTOR

1. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) — 7/4
2. Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) — 31/10
3. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) — 5/1
4. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) — 15/2
5. Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) — 17/2

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Zoe Salda?a (Emilia Pérez) — 31/20
2. Ariana Grande (Wicked) — 19/5
3. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) — 11/2
4. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) — 13/2
5. Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown) — 15/2

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) — 3/2
2. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) — 5/1
3. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) — 5/1
4. Yura Borisov (Anora) — 6/1
5. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) — 7/1

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Conclave — 3/2
2. A Complete Unknown — 9/2
3. Nickel Boys — 11/2
4. Sing Sing — 6/1
5. Emilia Pérez — 7/1

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Anora — 39/20
2. A Real Pain — 19/5
3. The Substance — 4/1
4. The Brutalist — 11/2
5. September 5 — 9/1

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. The Brutalist — 13/8
2. Nosferatu — 39/10
3. Dune: Part Two — 9/2
4. Emilia Pérez — 15/2
5. Maria — 8/1

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Wicked — 29/20
2. Nosferatu — 4/1
3. Conclave — 11/2
4. Gladiator II — 7/1
5. A Complete Unknown — 15/2

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Conclave — 39/20
2. Anora — 69/20
3. The Brutalist — 9/2
4. Emilia Pérez — 13/2
5. Wicked — 15/2

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. The Substance — 31/20
2. Wicked — 9/2
3. A Different Man — 5/1
4. Nosferatu — 6/1
5. Emilia Pérez — 8/1

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Wicked — 8/5
2. The Brutalist — 39/10
3. Dune: Part Two — 11/2
4. Conclave — 13/2
5. Nosferatu — 15/2

BEST SCORE

1. The Brutalist — 9/5
2. Conclave — 10/3
3. The Wild Robot — 5/1
4. Emilia Pérez — 6/1
5. Wicked — 8/1

BEST SONG

1. Emilia Pérez ("El Mal") — 9/5
2. The Six Triple Eight ("The Journey") — 18/5
3. Elton John: Never Too Late ("Never Too Late") — 6/1
4. Sing Sing ("Like a Bird") — 6/1
5. Emilia Pérez ("Mi Camino") — 13/2

BEST SOUND

1. Wicked — 12/5
2. Dune: Part Two — 13/5
3. A Complete Unknown — 4/1
4. Emilia Pérez — 15/2
5. The Wild Robot — 17/2

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Dune: Part Two — 8/5
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes — 9/2
3. Wicked — 5/1
4. Better Man — 6/1
5. Alien: Romulus — 17/2

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. The Wild Robot — 17/10
2. Flow — 16/5
3. Inside Out 2 — 11/2
4. Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl — 7/1
5. Memoir of a Snail — 15/2

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. No Other Land — 46/25
2. Porcelain War — 4/1
3. Sugarcane — 4/1
4. Black Box Diaries — 6/1
5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat — 7/1

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM

1. I'm Still Here — 39/20
2. Emilia Pérez — 3/1
3. The Seed of the Sacred Fig — 11/2
4. Flow — 11/2
5. The Girl with the Needle — 9/1

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. "Beautiful Men" — 57/20
2. "Wander to Wonder" — 31/10
3. "Yuck!" — 19/5
4. "Magic Candies" — 6/1
5. "In the Shadow of the Cypress" — 6/1

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. "I Am Ready, Warden" — 43/20
2. "Incident" — 37/10
2. "The Only Girl in the Orchestra" — 37/10
4. "Death by Numbers" — 6/1
5. "Instruments of a Beating Heart" — 8/1

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. "The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent" — 23/10
2. "Anuja" — 19/5
3. "A Lien" — 39/10
4. "I’m Not a Robot" — 11/2
5. "The Last Ranger" — 7/1

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Gold Derby's Oscar odds are based on the combined forecasts of more than 9,900 people (and counting), including experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, editors who cover awards year-round for this website, top 24 users who had the best accuracy scores last year, and the mass of users who make up our biggest predictions bloc. Conan O'Brien will host the 97th annual Academy Awards.

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