Will Ariana Grande get a ‘Wicked’ boost at the Grammys? How she and others could benefit from good timing
Winning a Grammy should be solely based on music quality. The reality, however, is that a big part of the game is being relevant to voters. Academy members are conscious of pop cultural impact when selecting the best of the year. So it helps for artists to keep busy in the weeks between nominations and final voting. Taylor Swift released “Evermore” on the week when final voting opened in December 2020, ensuring her “Folklore” Album of the Year win weeks later. Ariana Grande’s sudden “Thank U, Next” era undoubtedly helped her secure her Best Pop Vocal Album win for “Sweetener” in 2019.
This time around, Grande benefits from the release of her new film, “Wicked”; its timing late in the year will elevate her profile. “Wicked” received great reviews, and it’s a huge commercial hit, already becoming the highest-grossing musical adaptation of all time at the domestic box office. On top of that, Grande just collected a Golden Globe nomination and is receiving Oscar buzz for her performance in the film, which means she’s going to be on the campaign trail, which could prove infectious to voters from the Recording Academy. She might want to include some “Eternal Sunshine” promotion in her campaign schedule, particularly for “Yes, And?” as that song might be her best chance at a win.
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Another artist who could be bolstered by new material is Lady Gaga. She is up for two Grammys, Song of the Year and Best Pop Duo/Group Performance for her Bruno Mars-assisted ballad “Die with a Smile.” The track is a top contender in both categories, especially the latter. Meanwhile, Gaga’s “LG7” rollout has already started with the release of lead single “Disease,” on which she goes back to an industrial-pop/dance music sound in the vein of “Born This Way.” The single has held up on radio, but its Billboard Hot 100 performance hasn’t matched her previous lead singles. Presuming the under-performance of “Disease” isn’t perceived as a liability, the new music could improve her chances, reminding voters of Gaga’s range as an artist. Either way, having two songs in the top 20 on pop radio right now brings her more attention.
There’s also Kendrick Lamar’s surprise drop, “GNX.” As usual with Lamar albums, the record is critically acclaimed, albeit not to the degree of “Damn” or “To Pimp a Butterfly.” Still, the album’s commercial success makes up for that. Not only did “GNX” top the Billboard 200, it also charted all of its tracks in the top 30 of the Hot 100. This new album, plus the Drake lawsuit against “Not Like Us” that has mostly served to raise the profile of the diss track, could give the song a boost with voters. The track was probably already a lock to win Best Rap Performance and Best Rap Song, but now it could have a better shot at winning in the general field, too. After all, voters may now see Kendrick Lamar as the artist of the year, while the undeniable moment of 2024 music was “Not Like Us.” If anyone could challenge the Grammys’ usual bias against hip-hop, it is Lamar.
Final Grammy voting starts Dec. 12 and will extend all the way to Jan. 4. But don’t sleep on the contenders between now and then, with rumors abounding that new albums from Chappell Roan and SZA are imminent. We’ll soon see who played the game the best and scored the biggest boost from their end-of-year bounty.
The 2025 Grammys will take place on Feb. 2 and be broadcast live on CBS and Paramount+.
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