Best Picture Oscar odds update: ‘Anora’ enjoys 17th week at No. 1
With Oscar nominations less than three weeks away, Anora remains the film to beat.
The Sean Baker-helmed film, which stars Mikey Madison as a sex worker whose quickie marriage to the slacker son of a Russian oligarch goes horribly awry, has spent 17 weeks at No. 1 in Gold Derby’s Best Picture rankings with 7/1 odds, while The Brutalist and Conclave are tied at 15/2 odds in the runner-up position. Additionally, Baker is second in the Best Director odds (4/1), behind The Brutalist helmer Brady Corbet (18/5), while Madison (17/5) continues in the top slot for Best Actress.
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Below, see a snapshot in time of our odds for the 97th Academy Awards in all 23 categories, updated on Dec. 30, 2024 — that’s one week before the Golden Globes ceremony airs on CBS. See how the rankings have changed over time by examining our previous Oscar snapshots on July 3, July 9, July 16, July 23, July 29, Aug. 6, Aug. 19, Aug. 28, Sept. 11, Sept. 19, Sept. 23, Sept. 30, Oct. 7, Oct. 14, Oct. 22, Oct. 28, Nov. 4, Nov. 11, Nov. 18,, Nov. 25, Dec. 2, Dec. 10, Dec. 16, and Dec. 23.
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Gold Derby’s Oscar odds are based on the combined forecasts of experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, editors who cover awards year-round for this website, top 24 users who had the best accuracy scores last year, and the mass of users who make up our biggest predictions bloc. Since our predictions center opened on July 1, 2024, more than 7,300 people have now made their forecasts. Track the awards races by exploring all of our charts and graphs, and be sure to sound off in our forums.
The Academy Awards nominations will be announced on Jan. 17, 2025.
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees
1. Anora — 7/1
2. The Brutalist — 15/2
3. Conclave — 15/2
4. Wicked — 8/1
5. Emilia Pérez — 17/2
6. Dune: Part Two — 10/1
7. Sing Sing — 13/1
8. A Real Pain — 14/1
9. Nickel Boys — 15/1
10. The Substance — 18/1
Predicted Spoilers
A Complete Unknown, September 5, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Gladiator II, The Wild Robot, The Room Next Door
See more Best Picture contenders …
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees
1. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) — 18/5
2. Sean Baker (Anora) — 4/1
3. Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) — 5/1
4. Edward Berger (Conclave) — 11/2
5. Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) — 10/1
Predicted Spoilers
RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two), Jon M. Chu (Wicked), Mohammad Rasoulof (The Seed of the Sacred Fig), Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light), Ridley Scott (Gladiator II)
See more Best Director contenders …
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
1. Mikey Madison (Anora) — 17/5
2. Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez) — 9/2
3. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) — 6/1
4. Angelina Jolie (Maria) — 6/1
5. Demi Moore (The Substance) — 19/2
Predicted Spoilers
Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun), June Squibb (Thelma), Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl)
See more Best Actress contenders …
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees
1. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) — 7/2
2. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) — 39/10
3. Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) — 4/1
4. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) — 4/1
5. Daniel Craig (Queer) — 7/1
Predicted Spoilers
Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), Sebastian Stan (A Different Man), Nicholas Hoult (Juror #2), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Timothee Chalamet (Dune: Part Two)
See more Best Actor contenders …
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
1. Zoe Salda?a (Emilia Pérez) — 17/5
2. Ariana Grande (Wicked) — 4/1
3. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) — 5/1
4. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) — 6/1
5. Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) — 21/2
Predicted Spoilers
Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Saoirse Ronan (Blitz), Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl)
See more Best Supporting Actress contenders …
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees
1. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) — 10/3
2. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) — 4/1
3. Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) — 11/2
4. Yura Borisov (Anora) — 6/1
5. Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) — 6/1
Predicted Spoilers
Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Stanley Tucci (Conclave), Mark Eydelshteyn (Anora), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Pedro Pascal (Gladiator II), Peter Sarsgaard (September 5)
See more Best Supporting Actor contenders …
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees
1. Conclave — 82/25
2. Sing Sing — 9/2
3. Nickel Boys — 9/2
4. Emilia Pérez — 5/1
5. Dune: Part Two — 14/1
Predicted Spoilers
Wicked, I’m Still Here, The Room Next Door, The Piano Lesson, The Wild Robot, A Complete Unknown
See more Best Adapted Screenplay contenders …
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees
1. Anora — 17/5
2. The Brutalist — 4/1
3. A Real Pain — 4/1
4. The Substance — 5/1
5. Hard Truths — 11/1
Predicted Spoilers
September 5, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Challengers, All We Imagine as Light, Heretic, Saturday Night
See more Best Original Screenplay contenders …
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Predicted Nominees
1. The Brutalist — 10/3
2. Dune: Part Two — 4/1
3. Nickel Boys — 5/1
4. Maria — 8/1
5. Nosferatu — 17/2
Predicted Spoilers
Emilia Pérez, Conclave, Wicked, Gladiator II, Challengers, Anora
See more Best Cinematography contenders …
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Predicted Nominees
1. Wicked — 82/25
2. Dune: Part Two — 4/1
3. Gladiator II — 9/2
4. Maria — 5/1
5. Nosferatu — 15/2
Predicted Spoilers
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, The Brutalist, Blitz, Conclave, The Substance, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
See more Best Costume Design contenders …
BEST FILM EDITING
Predicted Nominees
1. Dune: Part Two — 4/1
2. Conclave — 9/2
3. The Brutalist — 9/2
4. Anora — 9/2
5. Emilia Pérez — 7/1
Predicted Spoilers
Challengers, Wicked, September 5, The Substance, Nickel Boys, A Complete Unknown
See more Best Film Editing contenders …
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Predicted Nominees
1. The Substance — 69/20
2. Wicked — 9/2
3. A Different Man — 11/2
4. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice — 6/1
5. Dune: Part Two — 15/2
Predicted Spoilers
Nosferatu, Emilia Pérez, Waltzing with Brando, The Apprentice, Maria
See more Best Makeup & Hairstyling contenders …
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Predicted Nominees
1. Wicked — 69/20
2. Dune: Part Two — 39/10
3. The Brutalist — 9/2
4. Gladiator II — 5/1
5. Conclave — 15/2
Predicted Spoilers
Nosferatu, Blitz, Emilia Pérez, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, The Substance
See more Best Production Design contenders …
BEST SCORE
Predicted Nominees
1. The Brutalist — 37/10
2. Conclave — 19/5
3. Emilia Pérez — 5/1
4. The Wild Robot — 11/2
5. Challengers — 11/2
Predicted Spoilers
Wicked, The Room Next Door, Blitz, Gladiator II, Blink Twice, Young Woman and the Sea
See more Best Score contenders …
BEST SONG
Predicted Nominees
1. The Wild Robot (“Kiss the Sky”) — 19/5
2. Emilia Pérez (“El Mal”) — 4/1
3. Emilia Pérez (“Mi Camino”) — 5/1
4. The Six Triple Eight (“The Journey”) — 6/1
5. Sing Sing (“Like a Bird”) — 21/2
Predicted Spoilers
Will and Harper (“Harper and Will Go West”), Challengers (“Compress/Repress”), Moana 2 (“Beyond”), Elton John: Never Too Late (“Never Too Late”), Piece by Piece (“Piece by Piece”), Mufasa: The Lion King (“Tell Me It’s You”)
See more Best Song contenders …
BEST SOUND
Predicted Nominees
1. Dune: Part Two — 10/3
2. Wicked — 4/1
3. Emilia Pérez — 5/1
4. Gladiator II — 5/1
5. A Complete Unknown — 13/2
Predicted Spoilers
Blitz, Alien: Romulus, The Wild Robot, Joker: Folie à Deux, Deadpool and Wolverine
See more Best Sound contenders …
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Predicted Nominees
1. Dune: Part Two — 82/25
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes — 4/1
3. Wicked — 11/2
4. Gladiator II — 11/2
5. Twisters — 17/2
Predicted Spoilers
Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Mufasa: The Lion King, Civil War, Deadpool and Wolverine
See more Best Visual Effects contenders …
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Predicted Nominees
1. The Wild Robot — 16/5
2. Inside Out 2 — 4/1
3. Flow — 9/2
4. Memoir of a Snail — 9/2
5. Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl — 5/1
Predicted Spoilers
Moana 2, Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim, The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie, Piece by Piece, Transformers One, Look Back
See more Best Animated Feature contenders …
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Predicted Nominees
1. No Other Land — 17/5
2. Sugarcane — 9/2
3. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat — 6/1
4. Daughters — 13/2
5. Dahomey — 7/1
Predicted Spoilers
Will and Harper, Black Box Diaries, Porcelain War, The Remarkable Life of Ibelin, The Bibi Files, Union
See more Best Documentary Feature contenders …
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Predicted Nominees
1. Emilia Pérez — 82/25
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig — 39/10
3. I’m Still Here — 4/1
4. Flow — 10/1
5. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies — 23/2
Predicted Spoilers
The Girl with the Needle, Kneecap, Vermiglio, From Ground Zero, Universal Language, Dahomey
See more Best International Film contenders …
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Predicted Nominees
1. “Beautiful Men” — 9/2
2. “A Bear Named Wojtek” — 5/1
3. “Yuck!” — 13/2
4. “Wander to Wonder” — 13/2
5. “A Crab in the Pool” — 9/1
Predicted Spoilers
“Au Revoir Mon Monde,” “In the Shadow of the Cypress,” “Bottle George,” “Me,” “The 21,” “Maybe Elephants”
See more Best Animated Short contenders …
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Predicted Nominees
1. “I Am Ready, Warden” — 4/1
2. “Once Upon a Time in Ukraine” — 5/1
3. “Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World” — 11/2
4. “Death by Numbers” — 13/2
5. “Incident” — 17/2
Predicted Spoilers
“Chasing Roo,” “The Only Girl in the Orchestra,” “A Swim Lesson,” “Planetwalker,” “Until He’s Back,” “Eternal Father”
See more Best Documentary Short contenders …
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Predicted Nominees
1. “The Masterpiece” — 9/2
2. “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent” — 5/1
3. “Anuja” — 13/2
4. “An Orange from Jaffa” — 13/2
5. “Dovecote” — 8/1
Predicted Spoilers
“The Compatriot,” “The Ice Cream Man,” “I’m Not a Robot,” “Clodagh,” “Crust,” “Edge of Space”
See more Best Live Action Short contenders …
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