Best Supporting Actor/Actress expert slugfest: One Oscar contender already ‘has this in the bag’
This year’s Best Supporting Actor nominees are Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), and Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice). And the Best Supporting Actress contenders are Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), and Zoe Salda?a (Emilia Pérez). But who will win these categories come March 2?
After the nominations were announced, five top Oscar experts from major media outlets debated their winner predictions for Best Supporting Actor/Actress: Gold Derby’s Debra Birnbaum, Variety‘s Clayton Davis, The Hollywood Reporter‘s Scott Feinberg, Deadline’s Pete Hammond, and Indiewire’s Anne Thompson. Watch their full Oscars roundtable above.
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“There’s not going to be much argument today,” Thompson says, labeling Culkin “the frontrunner” who is going to “sweep” all of awards season. “It’s just the way it is … he’s not gonna be denied.” And since A Real Pain was snubbed in the Best Picture race, “this is the one” for fans of the movie to vote for.
Feinberg jokes that Succession composer Nicholas Britell had better be in the wings “waiting to play the score” since Culkin and Strong both appeared on that HBO series as brothers. He also suggests that Culkin is trying to “replicate” Robert Downey Jr.‘s “self-deprecating” speeches from last year when he won for Oppenheimer.
Davis is the only expert willing to argue that Culkin might lose Best Supporting Actor: “I think A Real Pain missing Best Picture was a bigger deal than people make. In this category, they are all first-time nominees except for four-time nominee Edward Norton, who has never won an Oscar. And if [Timothée Chalamet] is winning on the night, I think we have a Mystic River/Dallas Buyers Club situation [where it wins for lead actor and supporting actor]. I think they may be a packaged deal.”
Over in Best Supporting Actress, Birnbaum recognizes that there’s “a veteran up against new people,” referring to Rossellini as the longtime star who has finally received her first Oscar nomination. Salda?a is the unanimous choice of the group, especially after her triumphant victory at the Golden Globes for Emilia Pérez.
Hammond declares that “Zoe Salda?a has this in the bag.” He says, “You’re going to see this roll along and she’s going to win everything here,” referring to the Critics Choice Award, the Screen Actors Guild Award, and the BAFTA. “It’s the lead role and it’s overwhelming.” However, he notes that Rossellini would be a “true supporting winner” because of her limited screen time, which is “what this category was designed for.”
Which Oscar expert do you agree with the most? Sound off down in the comments section and join the discussion in our movie forums.
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