Breaking down 2025 Grammys Album of the Year race: The case for and against Beyoncé, Sabrina, Charli, and the rest
The race for Album of the Year at the 2025 Grammys is a nail-biter, pitting past winners against promising newcomers and an overdue veteran — yes, that means Beyoncé. In Gold Derby’s odds, which combine the forecasts of thousands of users, no one has majority support, so we must dig a little deeper to determine who will take home the gramophone on Feb. 2, 2025. Here is the case for and against each of the eight nominees:
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Brat by Charli XCX
The case for: Of all the nominated albums, none achieved the level of critical acclaim that Brat did when it was released on June 7, 2024. It scored 95 on Metacritic, making it the highest-ranking album this year on that aggregator and by far the most well-received album of the artist’s career. Brat was also a bigger commercial hit than any of her five previous studio albums. It was such a pop-cultural breakthrough that the season was dubbed “Brat Summer” and even extended into the political arena, becoming symbolic of Kamala Harris‘ candidacy for president. And there’s precedent for a dance/EDM album to win the top prize: Daft Punk did it in 2014 with Random Access Memories.
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The case against: Daft Punk were the first and still only EDM artist to win Album of the Year, so perhaps they were the exception that proved the rule. And they had advantages that Charli lacks. First, they were overdue veterans who had been active for more than two decades; Grammy voters often use Album of the Year as a de facto career achievement award (see also: Santana, Ray Charles, Herbie Hancock, and Robert Plant this century). Random Access Memories also channeled music from the 1970s and 1980s, and voters love a throwback: Hancock won for a Joni Mitchell tribute album, and Bruno Mars later prevailed in the general field with 24K Magic and “Leave the Door Open,” both of which paid homage to old-school R&B. So Brat‘s more progressive sound may not resonate as strongly with voters. Also, Charli hasn’t had much of a presence at the Grammys in the past; her only previous nominations were as a featured artist on Iggy Azalea‘s “Fancy.” So voters may not feel in any particular rush to give her their biggest prize.
Cowboy Carter by Beyoncé
The case for: Cowboy Carter received 11 nominations this year, the most ever for a single album. She received those nominations across a range of genres (pop, rap, country, Americana), showing broad support from the Recording Academy. She’s also the most nominated artist in Grammy history (with 99) and the most awarded artist in Grammy history (with 32). Cowboy Carter was an acclaimed chart topper, scoring 91 on Metacritic and achieving 407,000 equivalent album units in its first week, which made her the first Black woman to lead the Top Country Albums chart. There’s history written all over this album, which taps into the legacy of Black artists in country music. It’s also a gutsy stylistic pivot for the pop/R&B star, something awards voters have honored before (Taylor Swift won for switching from country to pop on 1989). And as mentioned above, this has often been given out as a career achievement award, so the fact that Beyoncé hasn’t won it yet could work in her favor. All that, and then she made headlines with a savvy, showstopping performance during a Christmas Day NFL halftime show on Netflix right in the middle of the Grammys voting period (Dec. 12, 2024 to Jan. 3, 2025). The timing was surely no coincidence, as we alluded to when her performance was first announced, and neither was the fact that she chose to almost entirely dedicate her performance to music from Cowboy Carter, practically daring Academy members to vote against her. Her performance was so impactful that not only did Netflix make it available to for stand-alone streaming, it bumped Beyoncé to the top of our Album of the Year racetrack odds; she had previously trailed Billie Eilish (more on her below).
The case against: Why on Earth hasn’t Beyoncé won this award yet? She was the frontrunner for her self-titled album but lost to Morning Phase by Beck. She was the frontrunner for Lemonade but lost to 25 by Adele. She was the frontrunner for Renaissance but lost to Harry’s House by Harry Styles. When it comes to Beyoncé and Album of the Year, the Grammys have been like Lucy with the football, so why would this year be any different? Also, Cowboy Carter is so stylistically different from her previous work that it may come off as an anomaly (though given her track record, maybe that’s actually an advantage). And that shutout at the CMA Awards is concerning. Those awards are given out by industry peers, which could be a sign that the country community is ambivalent about Beyoncé’s participation in the genre. Grammy voters nominated her across the board in country categories, so that may not be a problem here, but if she loses the Grammy, the CMAs may be seen as the canary in the coal mine.
Djesse Vol. 4 by Jacob Collier
The case for: His name may not ring a bell with many casual music fans, but this is actually Jacob Collier’s second Grammy nom for Album of the Year. The last time he competed in this category was for Djesse Vol. 3 in 2021 under the controversial nomination review committees that used to make the final decisions. Given his low profile among the general public, it seemed like he was probably a committee choice who didn’t get enough votes to crack the top eight on his own. He has proven that assumption wrong, however. With the committees gone, he earned a nomination this year for Djesse Vol. 4 based solely on the votes of his peers. And the 30-year-old Englishman has already won six Grammys for his musical arrangements. It’s clear that the prodigious multi-instrumentalist appeals to music insiders despite his lack of mainstream popularity, much like 2022 winner Jon Batiste (We Are). And Vol. 4 includes guest appearances by a number of industry favorites across genres including Brandi Carlile, John Legend, Kirk Franklin, Camilo, and Chris Martin. So even if you didn’t know who Collier was, your favorite artists definitely do.
The case against: It’s hard to win the top Grammy without at least some popular support. Djesse Vol. 4 didn’t even chart on the Billboard 200, which would make it one of the least commercial winners in the history of Album of the Year. Additionally, Collier received only two other Grammy nominations this year: Best Global Music Performance for “A Rock Somewhere” featuring Anoushka Shankar and Varijashree Venugopal, and Best Arrangement, Instrumental or A Cappella for his cover of “Bridge Over Troubled Water” with Legend and Tori Kelly. History shows you shouldn’t bet against him in the arrangement category, but his relative dearth of nominations compared to his rivals in this race leaves him at a disadvantage.
Hit Me Hard and Soft by Billie Eilish
The case for: Do the Grammys love anyone like they love Billie Eilish right now? She has won six times in the general field already: Best New Artist, Album of the Year (When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?), Record of the Year twice (“Bad Guy” and “Everything I Wanted”), and Song of the Year twice (“Bad Guy” and “What Was I Made For?”) — all since 2020. So she must always be considered a serious threat to win. And her latest album would be a strong contender even without that track record. Hit Me Hard and Soft is her highest-scoring album on Metacritic (89), it achieved the most first-week album units of her career (339,000), and it produced one of the biggest hit singles of her career so far (“Birds of a Feather,” up for Record and Song of the Year). It has been stable on the charts ever since it was released, ranked eighth on the Billboard 200 in its 31st week, even going up against December’s usual glut of holiday collections.
The case against: The album is a hit, but not the biggest hit in the category. The album is acclaimed, but not the most acclaimed in the category. She won recently, so she’s probably not considered due for another win just yet (though recent multiple victories by Adele and Taylor Swift show that voters aren’t shy about repeat wins these days). Amid this competition, she has the potential to be an also-ran. And her last album, Happier Than Ever, was blanked at the Grammys, winning none of its seven nominations — the same number of nominations that Eilish has now. She may be loved by the Academy, but she’s not indomitable.
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New Blue Sun by André 3000
The case for: As a member of the rap duo OutKast, André 3000 made history with Speakerboxxx/The Love Below. In 2004 it became the first — and is still the only — rap album to win Album of the Year. In 2023 the idiosyncratic artist finally released his first solo studio album, and it’s exactly what you’d expect … 87 minutes of ambient new age jazz? André understood how music fans might react to that; the first of its eight tracks is titled “I Swear, I Really Wanted to Make a ‘Rap’ Album But This Is Literally the Way the Wind Blew Me This Time.” Despite his unusual musical departure from his past work, the collection reached No. 34 on the Billboard 200 and topped the New Age Albums chart. That it earned a Grammy nomination for Album of the Year at all is a testament to how revered the musician is by the Recording Academy. It’s unlike anything else in this category, so it will probably have a segment of voters all to itself. And it’s important to note that jazz is the second-most-represented genre in the Academy, according to the organization’s most recent report. We’ve recently seen representatives of the genre pull off upset victories in the general field before — Esperanza Spalding and Samara Joy winning Best New Artist over much more commercial acts — so we must consider jazz a major contender whenever it appears in top categories.
The case against: Like Collier’s Djesse Vol. 4, André 3000’s New Blue Sun only has two other nominations: Best Alternative Jazz Album and Best Instrumental Composition for “I Swear …” That’s not a lot of overall support for a potential Album of the Year winner. And while it certainly stands out from the rest of the pack and might enjoy support from jazz voters, ambient music might still be too niche to garner Academy-wide support, especially when you compare it to blockbuster albums that were much more widely listened to. Jon Batiste’s aforementioned winner We Are wasn’t a huge popular hit either, but Batiste had 11 nominations that year across multiple fields, so he had a breadth of support that New Blue Sun lacks.
The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess by Chappell Roan
The case for: It’s the year’s most organic success story and arguably has the strongest narrative. It was released on Sept. 22, 2023, just a week into the eligibility period, and wasn’t an immediate success. But over time it rose up the charts thanks to positive word of mouth and buzzy performances on Olivia Rodrigo‘s tour (the two share a producer, Dan Nigro) as well as Coachella and the Governors Ball. It eventually reached No. 2 on the Billboard 200 and launched multiple singles onto the Hot 100. Her songs have since been featured everywhere from The Kelly Clarkson Show to Dancing With the Stars. When nominations were announced she entered the history books as one of only 15 artists nominated in the big four categories all in one night (Album of the Year, Record of the Year, Song of the Year, Best New Artist). In all, she submitted to six categories for Grammy consideration and earned all six nominations, also including Best Pop Solo Performance (“Good Luck, Babe!”) and Best Pop Vocal Album, demonstrating just how much her peers support her.
The case against: Of the artists who earned the big four nominations, most of them won Best New Artist, but only two of them won Album of the Year: Christopher Cross (Christopher Cross) and Eilish (When We All Fall Asleep). In general, it’s not that easy to win for your debut album. Before Eilish, the last artist with that kind of beginner’s luck was Norah Jones for Come Away With Me in 2003. And Roan will have to overcome a field full of young pop women who could split each other’s votes, including another artist, Sabrina Carpenter, who is also nominated in the big four categories. Speaking of which…
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Short n’ Sweet by Sabrina Carpenter
The case for: Like Roan, she’s nominated in the big four categories. In fact, she has the exact same nominations as Roan, but Carpenter was an even bigger commercial success. Short n’ Sweet spent four nonconsecutive weeks at No. 1, and three of its singles reached the top three on the Hot 100: “Espresso,” which is nominated for Record of the Year, “Please Please Please,” which is nominated for Song of the Year, and “Taste.” Carpenter also has a strong narrative of her own. The former child star has been toiling away for the better part of a decade and only now has achieved mainstream success, defining pop music for 2024; another former child star, Miley Cyrus, made good just last year by winning Record of the Year for “Flowers.” Short n’ Sweet was also a favorite of critics, scoring 82 on Metacritic, giving Carpenter added prestige. And unlike Roan, she won’t have to worry about the curse of the debut album. Though she’s classified as a new artist by the Grammys, Short n’ Sweet is actually her sixth studio album.
The case against: Though critics are on her side, Short n’ Sweet may come off as lightweight compared to the pop contemplations of artists like Eilish and Swift, so the Academy might prefer to reward her in Record of the Year for the ubiquitous “Espresso” instead of Album of the Year for her entire collection. That’s what happened to Cyrus last year: she had the top record but her Endless Summer Vacation lost the album prize to Swift’s Midnights. Otherwise, Carpenter faces the same challenge that Roan does, that the multiple pop women could cancel each other out.
The Tortured Poets Department by Taylor Swift
The case for: Swift has already won Album of the Year four times, more than any other recording artist in history. In fact, Swift is the defending champion in the category, having won it just last year for Midnights. It was actually at the last Grammys that Swift announced The Tortured Poets Department. So she may just string together Grammy wins and album announcements from here until eternity. But even after all Swift has accomplished, Tortured Poets still ended up making history. It spent 17 nonconsecutive weeks at No. 1 on the Billboard 200, which was the longest run for any album in 2024 and the longest run for any album in Swift’s career. Unsurprisingly, Billboard ended up naming it the year’s top album. So it arguably already is the album of the year. The Grammy would complete it’s victory lap.
The case against: Frankly, the fact that Swift has won Album of the Year four times works against her as much as it works for her. There’s surely no urgency to award her for a fifth time so soon. Any industry insiders experiencing Swift fatigue might be inclined to actively vote against her this time around. And Grammy voters are surely aware of the backlash they have received over the years for denying Beyoncé. Imagine the firestorm that would follow if Swift collects a fifth trophy while Queen Bey is still waiting for her first. But even without Beyoncé in the race it would be a challenge to win Album of the Year at back-to-back ceremonies. No one has achieved that since Stevie Wonder 50 years ago (Innervisions in 1974, Fulfillingness’ First Finale in 1975). It doesn’t help Swift’s case that the reviews for Tortured Poets were a step down from her previous efforts; it scored 76 on Metacritic, a respectable mark but her lowest since 2017’s Reputation. Perhaps the Academy will take a break from the superstar this time.
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