‘The Brutalist,’ ‘Emilia Pérez,’ and ‘Wicked’ top Critics Choice Awards film odds

The Brutalist is poised to win big at the 2025 Critics Choice Awards on Friday. According to the official Gold Derby odds, which are based on the combined predictions of thousands of Gold Derby experts, editors, and users, the epic drama about a Holocaust survivor’s struggles in America will claim Best Picture, Best Director (Brady Corbet), Best Actor (Adrien Brody), and Best Cinematography.

The Critics Choice Awards are decided by the Critics Choice Association, which comprises more than 580 broadcast, radio, and online critics and entertainment journalists. The voting body has little overlap with the Motion Picture Academy that decides the Oscars, which may be why they’ve disagreed with the Best Picture Oscar winner half the time in recent years. The two organizations have matched five times in the past decade: both groups picked Spotlight (2015), The Shape of Water (2017), Nomadland (2020), Everything Everywhere All at Once (2022), and Oppenheimer (2023).

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After The Brutalist, the Gold Derby forecast favors Emilia Pérez in three categories: Best Supporting Actress (Zoe Salda?a), Best Original Song (“El Mal”), and Best Foreign Language Film. The film’s awards season has recently been upended by terrible publicity surrounding star Karla Sofía Gascón‘s old tweets and recent public statements and appearances. But the Critics Choice voting ended Jan. 10, at which point Emilia Pérez was still riding high from four Golden Globe wins including Best Film Comedy/Musical. Since the ballots were cast nearly a month ago, don’t be surprised if the film exceeds expectations.

Wicked is tipped to win three prizes as well: Best Film Ensemble, Best Costume Design, and Best Production Design. A Real Pain gets best odds in two categories: Best Comedy Film and Best Supporting Actor for Kieran Culkin, who has dominated the category throughout the season, but whose film isn’t nominated for Best Picture at this event or at the Oscars, potentially making him vulnerable.

Though Challengers was completely blanked in the Oscar nominations, we’re betting on it to receive two prizes from these movie journos: Best Editing and Best Original Score. If we’re right, the film will have won for its unorthodox score at the Globes and Critics Choice Awards without even a nomination from the Academy. The Substance is the last film we expect to win multiple awards: Demi Moore will follow her Globe win with another Best Actress title, while the body horror film’s hair and makeup is also expected to get the nod from CCA voters.

Here is the complete list of Critics Choice Awards odds:

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BEST PICTURE
The Brutalist — 9/2
Anora — 13/2
Wicked — 15/2
Conclave — 8/1
Emilia Pérez — 9/1
The Substance — 11/1
A Complete Unknown — 12/1
Sing Sing — 13/1
Nickel Boys — 14/1
Dune: Part Two — 15/1

BEST DIRECTOR
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist — 37/10
Sean Baker, Anora — 11/2
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez — 15/2
Edward Berger, Conclave — 15/2
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance — 8/1
Jon M. Chu, Wicked — 17/2
Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two — 10/1
RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys — 21/2

BEST ACTRESS
Demi Moore, The Substance — 31/10
Mikey Madison, Anora — 39/10
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked — 5/1
Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths — 13/2
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez — 13/2
Angelia Jolie, Maria — 8/1

BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist — 31/10
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown — 19/5
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave — 5/1
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing — 11/2
Daniel Craig, Queer — 15/2
Hugh Grant, Heretic — 17/2

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Zoe Salda?a, Emilia Pérez — 59/20
Ariana Grande, Wicked — 19/5
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave — 5/1
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson — 13/2
Margaret Qualley, The Substance — 7/1
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys — 15/2

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain — 29/10
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist — 4/1
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown — 6/1
Yura Borisov, Anora — 6/1
Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing — 13/2
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II — 15/2

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora — 3/1
A Real Pain — 4/1
The Substance — 5/1
The Brutalist — 5/1
September 5 — 15/2
Challengers — 17/2

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Conclave — 29/10
Sing Sing — 9/2
Emilia Pérez — 11/2
Nickel Boys — 11/2
Dune: Part Two — 7/1
Wicked — 15/2

BEST FILM ENSEMBLE
Wicked — 7/2
Conclave — 37/10
Emilia Pérez — 5/1
Anora — 11/2
Sing Sing — 6/1
Saturday Night — 9/1

BEST YOUNG ACTOR OR ACTRESS
Izaac Wang, Didi — 10/3
Elliott Heffernan, Blitz — 19/5
Maisy Stella, My Old Ass — 9/2
Alyla Browne, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga — 11/2
Zoe Ziegler, Janet Planet — 7/1
Alisha Weir, Abigail — 17/2

BEST COMEDY FILM
A Real Pain — 59/20
Hit Man — 4/1
Saturday Night — 5/1
Deadpool and Wolverine — 6/1
Thelma — 13/2
My Old Ass — 15/2

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Wild Robot — 7/4
Flow — 3/1
Inside Out 2 — 5/1
Memoir of a Snail — 15/2
Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl — 17/2

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Emilia Pérez — 31/10
I’m Still Here — 4/1
The Seed of the Sacred Fig — 5/1
All We Imagine as Light — 5/1
Flow — 13/2
Kneecap — 9/1

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist — 31/10
Nickel Boys — 9/2
Conclave — 11/2
Nosferatu — 11/2
Dune: Part Two — 11/2
Wicked — 8/1

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Wicked — 29/10
Dune: Part Two — 9/2
Nosferatu — 5/1
Maria — 11/2
Conclave — 7/1
Gladiator II — 15/2

BEST EDITING
Challengers — 7/2
The Brutalist — 4/1
Dune: Part Two — 5/1
Conclave — 11/2
September 5 — 6/1
Anora — 15/2

BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP
The Substance — 29/10
Wicked — 4/1
A Different Man — 5/1
Dune: Part Two — 6/1
Nosferatu — 7/1
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice — 8/1

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Challengers — 17/5
The Brutalist — 4/1
Conclave — 4/1
The Wild Robot — 6/1
Dune: Part Two — 15/2
Emilia Pérez — 15/2

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez — 59/20
“Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot — 9/2
“Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez — 5/1
“Compress/Repress” from Challengers — 11/2
“Harper and Will Go West” from Will and Harper — 7/1
“Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl — 8/1

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Wicked — 29/10
The Brutalist — 4/1
Dune: Part Two — 5/1
Conclave — 6/1
Nosferatu — 7/1
Gladiator II — 17/2

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune: Part Two — 29/10
Wicked — 4/1
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes — 5/1
Better Man — 6/1
The Substance — 13/2
Gladiator II — 8/1

Best of GoldDerby

• Oscar nominees Jarin Blaschke and Craig Lathrop on collaborating with Robert Eggers on 'Nosferatu'... and the upcoming 'Werwulf'

• Paul Tazewell on his 'Wicked' Oscar nomination and 'touching hearts' through costume design

• 'Wicked' composer John Powell was nominated for Oscar but overlooked by critics, which was the 'ultimate compliment'

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