The Case for 'Roma' Winning Best Picture, and Five More 2019 Oscars Predictions
Let's be honest: It has not been a great couple of months for the Oscars. From a disastrous attempt to find a host-a gig that used to be a coveted one, but is now a job no one in Hollywood wants to do-and the controversial decision to cut four categories from the live broadcast, Hollywood's biggest night has turned into Hollywood's biggest pain in the ass. Awards season usually makes monsters of all of us, from the brutal campaigning to the fighting about nominations and snubs and category fraud. Doesn't it feel like it's been Oscars Season for years? I don't blame you for feeling a little exhausted.
And yet, there's still a show to do, and the Oscars are steering forward without a host at the helm and with a weird lineup of nominees. And so I must do my job and offer my predictions for who will take away trophies for the top awards. The categories are star-studded and full of incredible artists who might very well earn the awards they deserve. And sure, there will be some that are kind of lame-it's a popularity contest, after all, to quote Drake's shortened Grammys acceptance speech. Here's who are most likely to go home with little gold men on Oscars night.
Best Picture: Roma
The Best Picture race is packed with stellar films (and, let's be honest, some actual clunkers). But is there even a true frontrunner this year? One could make a case for each film's relevance and chances. Black Panther was a cinematic moment. BlacKkKlansman is a return to form for the legendary Spike Lee. A Star Is Born revived an oft-told story with a first-time director and leading actress. The Favourite is a screwball historical tale with three leading female characters. Even the worst of the bunch have something going for them: the feel-good charm of Green Book, the caustic political comedy of Vice, the box-office-smashing Bohemian Rhapsody.
But I'm placing my bets on Roma, Alfonso Cuarón's touching and heartfelt drama that, at its core, is Best Picture material. It takes a literary approach to its subject-following the downtrodden maid Cleo who has an emotion-packed year of love and loss, ecstacy and grief-and tells its story through Cuarón's deeply personal lens. And the campaign narrative beyond the film's actual plot is a compelling out: It is Netflix's first shot at a Best Picture win, and the company has put all of its muscle behind it to grab it and establish itself as more than a streaming TV service. The cynical side of me is excited to see how this whole thing plays out.
Best Actor: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
This is, unquestionably, the most fraught category. Does Rami Malek do his best under all of those wigs and plastic teeth to portray Freddie Mercury's inherent charisma and talent? Yeah, sure, I guess. I mean, a lot of this performance-especially the musical sequences-has an uncanny valley aspect to it; half of the time, it looks like Malek's Mercury is the product of a computer (which is how you could also describe this movie's clunky and history-fudging script). But Malek's performance is a crowd-pleasing one, even if it's not particularly artful. It's likely he'll take home the Oscar, in spite of-or maybe even because of-director Bryan Singer's firing and the allegations of sexual misconduct against him.
Best Actress: Glenn Close, The Wife
If you asked anyone last fall who would win this Oscar, the answer would be: Lady Gaga. And then The Favourite came out, and Olivia Colman gained steam for her fierce and funny performance as Queen Anne, which certainly made Gaga nervous. But Glenn Close's Golden Globe win changed all of that last month. It was a surprise to most of us, as The Wife was a tiny movie without much of an awards push behind it. And Close's stirring acceptance speech, taking place just days before Oscar nomination voting began, may have swayed some Academy voters. This is the actress's seventh nomination and could be her first win; the Academy loves to award a career, and it appears that this will be Close's shot at that coveted trophy.
Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Green Book is steeped in controversy, from director Peter Farrelly's history of flashing his penis around to screenwriter Nick Vallelonga's unearthed racist tweets to the film's white savior narrative that reduces the character of the real-life piano virtuoso Don Shirley in favor of a white protagonist. But there's one objectively good thing about it: Mahershala Ali, who has had the unfortunate task of being in the spotlight while his white colleagues make a mess of their Oscar campaigns. A second Oscar in this category might feel like a weird consolation prize for getting embroiled in Hollywood drama, but this much is true: Ali elevates everything he touches, because he's that good of an actor. He brings a dignity to his performance of Don Shirley that's gravely missing from the rest of the film, and if history remembers Green Book as a Mahershala Ali movie, I'm all for it.
Best Supporting Actress: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
While it earned three Oscar nominations (along with King's, it earned Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Original Score), If Beale Street Could Talk seems like the most-snubbed movie of the year. (Everybody seems so pressed that Bradley Cooper didn't get a Best Director nomination to go along with his other three nods. Bradley Cooper and Beale Street got the same number of nominations! Isn't that wild?) But I won't use any more space to focus on this injustice, and instead will say how rapturous and commanding Regina King's performance actually is-one that feels like we're watching a seasoned artist finally get the meaty film role she's long deserved. To see King get this award, particularly in a category stacked with incredible performances, would be a blessing that parallels those that King has gifted her fans for decades.
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