‘A Complete Unknown’ sees Oscar odds rise, as ‘Emilia Pérez’ falls
As Emilia Pérez continues to tumble in Gold Derby’s Oscar odds due to Karla Sofía Gascón‘s multiple controversies, another movie is on the rise.
A Complete Unknown, James Mangold‘s crowd-pleasing biopic about a young Bob Dylan (as portrayed by Timothée Chalamet), was in sixth place to win Best Picture two weeks ago, but has now jumped up to No. 4. Likewise, it’s now the runner-up to Conclave in the Best Adapted Screenplay race, up one spot from its prior position. The Searchlight Pictures contender has eight Oscar nominations total.
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A Complete Unknown owes its ascension at the expense of Emilia Pérez. That movie’s star, Gascón (who made history as the first openly transgender person to receive a Best Actress nomination), has been embroiled in a public relations nightmare after years-old offensive and racist tweets resurfaced. On Thursday, she finally took a vow of “silence” while delivering her latest of many apologies, and said she’d step away from the spotlight “to let the work talk for itself.”
There are four notable categories in which Emilia Pérez has fallen: Best International Film (from first to second), Best Picture (from second to sixth), Best Director (from second to third), and Best Adapted Screenplay (from second to third). The Netflix musical film has 13 overall Oscar bids.
Below, see a snapshot in time of our winner predictions for the 2025 Oscars in all 23 categories, updated on Feb. 7. Gold Derby’s predicted winners are denoted in gold. See how the race has changed by examining the previous Oscar snapshots on Jan. 24 and Feb. 1.
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Gold Derby’s Oscar odds are based on the combined forecasts of more than 7,900 people (and counting), including experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, editors who cover awards year-round for this website, top 24 users who had the best accuracy scores last year, and the mass of users who make up our biggest predictions bloc. Track the awards races by exploring all of our charts and graphs, and be sure to sound off in our forums.
Conan O’Brien will host the 97th annual Academy Awards on March 2.
BEST PICTURE
1. The Brutalist — 5/1
2. Anora — 7/1
3. Conclave — 15/2
4. A Complete Unknown — 17/2
5. Wicked — 17/2
6. Emilia Pérez — 9/1
7. I’m Still Here — 23/2
8. The Substance — 23/2
9. Dune: Part Two — 14/1
10. Nickel Boys — 18/1
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) — 31/20
2. Sean Baker (Anora) — 9/2
3. Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) — 11/2
4. Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) — 6/1
5. James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) — 13/2
BEST ACTRESS
1. Demi Moore (The Substance) — 39/20
2. Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) — 3/1
3. Mikey Madison (Anora) — 9/2
4. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) — 13/2
5. Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez) — 17/2
BEST ACTOR
1. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) — 11/5
2. Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) — 53/20
3. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) — 9/2
4. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) — 7/1
5. Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) — 8/1
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Zoe Salda?a (Emilia Pérez) — 7/4
2. Ariana Grande (Wicked) — 17/5
3. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) — 6/1
4. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) — 6/1
5. Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown) — 15/2
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) — 8/5
2. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) — 4/1
3. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) — 9/2
4. Yura Borisov (Anora) — 7/1
5. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) — 15/2
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Conclave — 83/50
2. A Complete Unknown — 4/1
3. Emilia Pérez — 11/2
4. Sing Sing — 6/1
5. Nickel Boys — 13/2
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Anora — 9/5
2. The Brutalist — 4/1
3. The Substance — 9/2
4. A Real Pain — 5/1
5. September 5 — 17/2
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. The Brutalist — 7/4
2. Dune: Part Two — 37/10
3. Nosferatu — 9/2
4. Emilia Pérez — 13/2
5. Maria — 8/1
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. Wicked — 3/2
2. Nosferatu — 39/10
3. Gladiator II — 6/1
4. Conclave — 13/2
5. A Complete Unknown — 15/2
BEST FILM EDITING
1. Conclave — 49/20
2. The Brutalist — 82/25
3. Emilia Pérez — 9/2
4. Anora — 9/2
5. Wicked — 15/2
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
1. The Substance — 17/10
2. Wicked — 37/10
3. A Different Man — 5/1
4. Nosferatu — 6/1
5. Emilia Pérez — 8/1
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Wicked — 9/5
2. The Brutalist — 7/2
3. Dune: Part Two — 5/1
4. Conclave — 13/2
5. Nosferatu — 15/2
BEST SCORE
1. The Brutalist — 15/8
2. Conclave — 17/5
3. Emilia Pérez — 11/2
4. The Wild Robot — 11/2
5. Wicked — 7/1
BEST SONG
1. Emilia Pérez (“El Mal”) — 19/10
2. The Six Triple Eight (“The Journey”) — 39/10
3. Emilia Pérez (“Mi Camino”) — 5/1
4. Sing Sing (“Like a Bird”) — 6/1
5. Elton John: Never Too Late (“Never Too Late”) — 6/1
BEST SOUND
1. Wicked — 9/4
2. Dune: Part Two — 29/10
3. A Complete Unknown — 4/1
4. Emilia Pérez — 6/1
5. The Wild Robot — 17/2
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Dune: Part Two — 83/50
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes — 4/1
3. Wicked — 5/1
4. Better Man — 6/1
5. Alien: Romulus — 8/1
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. The Wild Robot — 19/10
2. Flow — 29/10
3. Inside Out 2 — 5/1
4. Memoir of a Snail — 15/2
5. Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl — 15/2
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. No Other Land — 7/4
2. Sugarcane — 18/5
3. Black Box Diaries — 11/2
4. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat — 6/1
5. Porcelain War — 15/2
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
1. I’m Still Here — 43/20
2. Emilia Pérez — 13/5
3. The Seed of the Sacred Fig — 11/2
4. Flow — 6/1
5. The Girl with the Needle — 17/2
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
1. “Beautiful Men” — 43/20
2. “Wander to Wonder” — 69/20
3. “Yuck!” — 39/10
4. “In the Shadow of the Cypress” — 6/1
5. “Magic Candies” — 8/1
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
1. “I Am Ready, Warden” — 2/1
2. “Incident” — 10/3
2. “The Only Girl in the Orchestra” — 9/2
4. “Death by Numbers” — 6/1
5. “Instruments of a Beating Heart” — 8/1
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
1. “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent” — 19/10
2. “Anuja” — 7/2
3. “I’m Not a Robot” — 9/2
4. “A Lien” — 13/2
5. “The Last Ranger” — 15/2
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