‘Conclave’ gains on ‘The Brutalist,’ ‘Anora’ in Oscar odds after BAFTA surprise

Marcus James Dixon

Tue, February 18, 2025 at 8:19 PM UTC

6 min read

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Shortly after Conclave beat the odds to win the top prize at the BAFTAs, awards pundits flocked to Gold Derby to update their Best Picture Oscar predictions. Edward Berger’s fictional tale chronicling the scandals within the Vatican following the pope’s death has risen to its highest odds yet (7/1), as it continues to gain momentum against the top two frontrunners, Anora (9/2) and The Brutalist (13/2).

Conclave is predicted to win two Oscars — Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Film Editing — from its overall eight nominations. Lead actor Ralph Fiennes and supporting actress Isabella Rossellini are both in third place to win their respective races, which have been dominated all season long by, respectively, Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) and Zoe Salda?a (Emilia Pérez). Conclave’s other three bids are for Best Costume Design, Best Production Design, and Best Score.

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Anora, Sean Baker’s independent film about a Brooklyn sex worker (Mikey Madison) who marries into the wrong family, is expected to win three of its six contests: Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay. Madison’s victory this weekend at BAFTA has catapulted her into second place for the Best Actress Oscar, behind only Demi Moore (The Substance).

The Brutalist, Brady Corbet’s period piece about a Holocaust survivor (Brody) who hopes to achieve the American Dream, nabbed 10 nominations and is out front for three of them: Best Actor, Best Cinematography, and Best Score. It has flip-flopped with Anora for the No. 1 spot in Best Picture in recent weeks, and is currently sitting in the runner-up position.

Below, see a snapshot of our winner predictions for the 2025 Oscars in all 23 categories, updated on Feb. 18. Gold Derby’s predicted champions are denoted in gold. See how the race has changed by examining the previous Oscar snapshots on Jan. 24, Feb. 1, Feb. 7, and Feb. 9.

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BEST PICTURE

1. Anora — 9/2
2. The Brutalist — 13/2
3. Conclave — 7/1
4. A Complete Unknown — 17/2
5. Wicked — 9/1
6. Emilia Pérez — 21/2
7. The Substance — 23/2
8. I’m Still Here — 12/1
9. Dune: Part Two — 15/1
10. Nickel Boys — 18/1

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Sean Baker (Anora) — 15/8
2. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) — 3/1
3. Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) — 11/2
4. James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) — 7/1
5. Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) — 7/1

BEST ACTRESS

1. Demi Moore (The Substance) — 2/1
2. Mikey Madison (Anora) — 10/3
3. Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) — 37/10
4. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) — 7/1
5. Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez) — 9/1

BEST ACTOR

1. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) — 46/25
2. Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) — 31/10
3. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) — 9/2
4. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) — 15/2
5. Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) — 17/2

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Zoe Salda?a (Emilia Pérez) — 13/8
2. Ariana Grande (Wicked) — 18/5
3. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) — 11/2
4. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) — 6/1
5. Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown) — 15/2

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) — 3/2
2. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) — 9/2
3. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) — 5/1
4. Yura Borisov (Anora) — 13/2
5. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) — 15/2

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Conclave — 31/20
2. A Complete Unknown — 4/1
3. Nickel Boys — 6/1
4. Sing Sing — 6/1
5. Emilia Pérez — 13/2

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Anora — 9/5
2. The Substance — 37/10
3. The Brutalist — 5/1
4. A Real Pain — 11/2
5. September 5 — 17/2

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. The Brutalist — 17/10
2. Dune: Part Two — 39/10
3. Nosferatu — 4/1
4. Emilia Pérez — 15/2
5. Maria — 8/1

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Wicked — 3/2
2. Nosferatu — 4/1
3. Conclave — 6/1
4. Gladiator II — 13/2
5. A Complete Unknown — 15/2

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Conclave — 11/5
2. Anora — 16/5
3. The Brutalist — 4/1
4. Emilia Pérez — 13/2
5. Wicked — 15/2

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. The Substance — 3/2
2. Wicked — 9/2
3. A Different Man — 5/1
4. Nosferatu — 6/1
5. Emilia Pérez — 17/2

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Wicked — 13/8
2. The Brutalist — 19/5
3. Dune: Part Two — 5/1
4. Conclave — 13/2
5. Nosferatu — 15/2

BEST SCORE

1. The Brutalist — 9/5
2. Conclave — 10/3
3. The Wild Robot — 11/2
4. Emilia Pérez — 6/1
5. Wicked — 8/1

BEST SONG

1. Emilia Pérez (“El Mal”) — 15/8
2. The Six Triple Eight (“The Journey”) — 37/10
3. Emilia Pérez (“Mi Camino”) — 11/2
4. Elton John: Never Too Late (“Never Too Late”) — 6/1
5. Sing Sing (“Like a Bird”) — 6/1

BEST SOUND

1. Wicked — 21/10
2. Dune: Part Two — 53/20
3. A Complete Unknown — 9/2
4. Emilia Pérez — 15/2
5. The Wild Robot — 8/1

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Dune: Part Two — 13/8
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes — 4/1
3. Wicked — 5/1
4. Better Man — 11/2
5. Alien: Romulus — 17/2

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. The Wild Robot — 7/4
2. Flow — 31/10
3. Inside Out 2 — 11/2
4. Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl — 15/2
5. Memoir of a Snail — 15/2

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. No Other Land — 9/5
2. Sugarcane — 19/5
3. Porcelain War — 11/2
4. Black Box Diaries — 6/1
5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat — 13/2

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM

1. I’m Still Here — 39/20
2. Emilia Pérez — 3/1
3. The Seed of the Sacred Fig — 5/1
4. Flow — 6/1
5. The Girl with the Needle — 17/2

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. “Beautiful Men” — 12/5
2. “Wander to Wonder” — 31/10
3. “Yuck!” — 9/2
4. “In the Shadow of the Cypress” — 6/1
5. “Magic Candies” — 13/2

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. “I Am Ready, Warden” — 43/20
2. “Incident” — 71/20
2. “The Only Girl in the Orchestra” — 4/1
4. “Death by Numbers” — 11/2
5. “Instruments of a Beating Heart” — 8/1

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent” — 21/10
2. “Anuja” — 10/3
3. “I’m Not a Robot” — 5/1
4. “A Lien” — 5/1
5. “The Last Ranger” — 8/1

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Gold Derby’s Oscar odds are based on the combined forecasts of more than 8,300 people (and counting), including experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, editors who cover awards year-round for this website, top 24 users who had the best accuracy scores last year, and the mass of users who make up our biggest predictions bloc. Track the awards races by exploring all of our charts and graphs, and be sure to sound off in our forums. Conan O’Brien will host the 97th annual Academy Awards on March 2.

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