‘Conclave’ wins Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards — here’s what it means for the Oscars race
Conclave won Best Ensemble at the Screen Actors Guild Awards on Sunday night, becoming the first movie to defeat Anora at one of the top industry guilds.
The win allows the Oscars Best Picture race to keep some intrigue heading into next weekend. Anora had previously won top honors at the Producers Guild Awards, Directors Guild Awards, and Writers Guild Awards. Since the SAG Awards started giving out its film ensemble honor, only five movies have swept the top industry guilds: American Beauty, Slumdog Millionaire, No Country for Old Men, Argo, and Everything Everywhere All at Once. All five movies won Best Picture.
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Now, this is a race. Conclave heads into the Oscars next week with some significant wind at its back, having also won Best Film honors at the BAFTA Awards last week. It is also heavily favored to win Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Editing. If Conclave pulls off the Best Picture upset, it could mirror the winning package Argo put together in 2013. (Although, it must be noted that Argo won at the PGA and DGA Awards, something Conclave failed to do.)
The Best Ensemble defeat for Anora is also potentially bad news for its star, Mikey Madison, who lost to The Substance's Demi Moore at the SAG Awards on Sunday night. Madison remains an underdog to win Best Actress at the Oscars. (An ensemble victory for her film, coupled with Madison’s win over Moore at the BAFTA Awards, would have spoken well about the overwhelming strength of Anora.) Typically, in close acting races, the edge has gone to the contender who appears in the stronger film. Last year, Lily Gladstone won the SAG Awards Best Actress prize, but Emma Stone took home the Oscar, one of four Poor Things received from the Academy. Gladstone’s film, Killers of the Flower Moon, was blanked. Two years ago, The Whale star Brendan Fraser and Everything Everywhere favorite Michelle Yeoh each won at the SAG Awards over, respectively, Elvis lead Austin Butler and Tár contender Cate Blanchett. At the Oscars, Fraser won alongside his film’s hair and makeup design, while Yeoh secured one of seven Everything Everywhere Oscars victories; Elvis and Tár were blanked.
Currently, the expectation is that Moore’s film The Substance will win hair and makeup design along with Best Actress; Anora, meanwhile, Anora remains the frontrunner for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay and is in striking distance for Best Editing. As a result, Madison might still have the edge, but Moore will be the frontrunner heading into Oscar night.
Of course, maybe the Conclave win doesn't really matter at all. Only 15 times in 29 years has the SAG Best Ensemble winner gone on to win Best Picture at the Oscars. BAFTA, meanwhile, has only matched the Oscars Best Picture winner twice since 2015 — including last year with Oppenheimer. Several films have won Best Picture after winning both the SAG ensemble prize and BAFTA best picture honor, but that usually comes with guild wins at the Producers Guild, Directors Guild, or Writers Guild (see winners like American Beauty, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Slumdog Millionaire, The King's Speech, Argo, and Oppenheimer). No Best Picture winner has taken the award with that SAG/BAFTA combination of precursors but without support from the other top industry guilds. (Conclave was ineligible at the Writers Guild Awards this year.)
Plus, unlike the previous year, the SAG Awards ceremony took place well after Oscar voting had closed, meaning any voters who the upset win might sway were not allowed to follow the SAG Awards lead. Still, it could also be argued that the Best Picture race feels like something ripped right out of a papal conclave, so maybe the Conclave has the edge after all.
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