Confused AI bot thinks Oscar nominations already happened, claims Best Actor race is ‘still developing’
All season long, Gold Derby has been checking in with Gemini AI for its Oscar nominations predictions, and we’ve had a good chuckle or two over its Joker: Folie à Deux obsession. But now, Google’s artificial intelligence bot seems more confused than ever.
“The 2025 Oscar nominations have just been announced!” Gemini proudly declared on Jan. 22, one full day before the Jan. 23 announcement is to take place at the Academy’s Samuel Goldwyn Theater. Hmm … does the 11-month-old AI bot need its battery changed?
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Another oddity in Gemini’s latest round of forecasts is the Best Actor race, where it fails to name anyone because the “category is still developing.” In comparison, Gemini lists 10 “likely nominees” for Best Picture, and five each for Best Director and Best Actress, plus three “potential winners” per contest. Perhaps Gemini sees Best Actor as a conflict of interest because its fellow AI bot Respeecher is currently involved in a budding controversy for helping The Brutalist‘s Adrien Brody, that category’s frontrunner, with his Hungarian language dialogue. Yep, artificial intelligence clearly sticks together!
Some “important notes” from Google’s ghost-in-the-machine include the following: “These are just predictions, and the actual nominations and winners may differ. The Oscars are known for surprises, so keep an open mind! You can find more detailed predictions and analysis from various awards prediction sites.”
Speaking of “awards prediction sites,” Gold Derby has been predicting Hollywood races since 2000, so this officially marks our 25th anniversary on the beat. For this year’s Oscar noms predictions, we’ve combined the forecasts of our four unique groups: experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, editors who cover awards year-round for this website, top 24 users who had the best accuracy scores last year, and the mass of users who make up our biggest predictions bloc.
SEE 2025 Oscars calendar update
With just hours to go until the nominations will be announced at 8:30 a.m. ET/5:30 a.m. PT, our final predictions for the 2025 Oscars actually line up perfectly with Gemini’s choices in picture, director, and actress. For actor, the AI bot only says to watch out for “actors in films like The Brutalist, Conclave, and A Real Pain,” presumably meaning Adrien Brody, Ralph Fiennes, and Jesse Eisenberg, respectively. See the lists below:
Best Picture
Likely Nominees (Artificial Intelligence and Gold Derby): Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Substance, Wicked, A Real Pain, Sing Sing
Potential Winners (AI): Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave
Potential Winner (GD): The Brutalist
Best Director
Likely Nominees (AI and GD): Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Edward Berger (Conclave), Sean Baker (Anora), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
Potential Winners (AI): Audiard, Corbet, Berger
Potential Winner (GD): Corbet
Best Actress
Likely Nominees (AI and GD): Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)
Potential Winners (AI): Madison, Moore, Gascón
Potential Winner (GD): Moore
Best Actor
Likely Nominees (AI): “This category is still developing, but some strong contenders include actors in films like The Brutalist, Conclave, and A Real Pain.”
Likely Nominees (GD): Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
Potential Winners (AI): N/A
Potential Winner (GD): Brody
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