Country music at the Grammys: Will the genre rule over general field categories this year?
2023 has been a massive year for country music. Four country songs have topped the Billboard Hot 100 this year, the second most ever after 1958. One of those songs, Morgan Wallen’s “Last Night,” spent 16 weeks atop the chart, tying for the second most weeks at number-one ever and breaking the record for the longest-running solo number-one in Hot 100 history. Other hits that haven’t reached number-one, like Luke Combs’s “Fast Car,” have still been huge hits this year while being unabashedly country. And number-one albums like Zach Bryan’s self-titled and Wallen’s “One Thing at a Time” have proved that the appeal of country is not just for songs, but for albums as well. Clearly country music is having a moment with the general public, so there’s a lot to consider about how much it’s impacting the industry and how that might be reflected in the upcoming Grammy nominations.
A couple of the big country hits will very likely not be recognized. Perhaps the most obvious is Jason Aldean’s “Try That In A Small Town,” which has been condemned by critics as a right-wing pro-gun anthem with racist undertones. Considering that country Grammy voters tend to be more left-leaning and have not nominated anything that controversial in years, it’s likely that Aldean gets completely shut out. Similarly, there’s a good chance Oliver Anthony Music’s “Rich Men North of Richmond” will be ignored. Perhaps it could get into the American roots categories, but Anthony lacks the backing of a record label and may be considered way too much of a one-hit wonder. It also stirred up controversy of its own for its criticism of welfare recipients. Still, it does have a shot, especially since Anthony’s alphabetical ballot placement in performance categories will be high.
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The real heavy-hitters from country music will be Zach Bryan, Luke Combs and Morgan Wallen. Bryan was, admittedly, shut out almost entirely last year for his breakthrough “American Heartbreak” record, only getting one nomination for Best Country Solo Performance for his hit “Something in the Orange.” However, Bryan has now had more time to win over the country crowd, earning nominations at the CMAs and ACMs, which he lacked last year. His new eponymous album is also way more successful than “American Heartbreak,” debuting with 200,000 equivalent album units in its first week and spending multiple weeks atop the Billboard 200. The album also features more Americana appeal with featured artists like The War and Treaty and The Lumineers, opening up Bryan’s appeal beyond country music. Plus, Bryan will have a high alphabetical ballot placement as well. As such, don’t be shocked if he appears in the Album of the Year lineup, and/or in Record and Song of the Year for the chart-topping “I Remember Everything” featuring Kacey Musgraves.
Combs has more limited nomination opportunities in the general field, as he is only likely to contend in Record of the Year. Still, his “Fast Car” might quietly be country’s best shot at a nomination. It is a cover of the beloved, Grammy-winning classic by Tracy Chapman, so it will get votes from older members who dug the song back when it was originally released, as well as younger voters who have been streaming the Combs version. The song has been a huge success too, peaking at number-two on the Hot 100, topping the country and adult top 40 charts, and peaking at number-seven (so far) on the pop airplay chart. That multiformat appeal could help Combs earn his first Record of the Year nomination, and second general field nom; he was previously nominated for Best New Artist in 2019.
SEEWill Luke Combs cover of Tracy Chapman’s ‘Fast Car’ make it a rare song to win Grammys twice?
Last but clearly not least is Wallen. His case is weird, to say the least. Under most circumstances, a hit like his “Last Night” should easily be getting general field nominations. Out of the 11 songs that spent 14 or more weeks atop the Hot 100, only one missed a general field nom: Los Del Rio’s “Macarena,” which may have been ineligible anyway since it became a hit in the US years after its original release. Still, Wallen’s sketchy past and his name being far down on the ballot for Record of the Year could mean he’s not getting in. But how long can the Grammys ignore him? Would they look out of touch if they snub arguably this year’s biggest male artist?
Regardless of whether it is Wallen, Combs, Bryan, Anthony or (worst case scenario) Aldean, country music will likely come back to the general field this year. Even if those commercial acts fail, there’s also music from Grammy favorites like Brandy Clark and Tanya Tucker, or indie sensations like Tyler Childers, available for nominations. We’ll have to see what the recording academy has in store for us.
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