How’d we do? Gold Derby Oscar odds correctly predicted 18 of 23 winners, up from last year
If you used Gold Derby's official odds to mark off your Oscar ballot, you would have gotten 18 of 23 categories correct. Not too shabby!
A record 13,612 people made their Oscar predictions at Gold Derby this year, and their combined forecasts only missed five categories: lead actress (Mikey Madison won over Demi Moore), film editing (Anora won over Conclave), animated feature (Flow won over The Wild Robot), animated short ("In the Shadow of the Cypress" won over "Yuck!"), and live-action short ("I'm Not a Robot" won over "A Lien").
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This year's prediction accuracy of 78.3 percent is slightly higher than last year's 73.9 percent, when our forecasts got 17 Academy Awards correct. But it's right on par with the 2023 Oscars, when we also pinpointed 18 of the winners.
Gold Derby's best year on record was at the 2022 Oscars, when we rightly named 22 of 23 winners, missing only the animated short race (we picked "The Windshield Wiper" over "Robin Robin").
Conversely, our worst showing ever was at the 2019 Oscars, when we miscalculated a whopping 10 champions — that was back when there were 24 categories because the sound race was split into two.
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To see where you ranked for this year's Conan O'Brien-hosted kudos, in which Anora claimed a leading five wins, check out the 2025 Oscars leaderboard. None of the more than 13K users got a perfect score, but 90 different people did get 20 categories correct, which is two better than the official odds.
Below, see a closer look at the past 10 years of combined Oscar predictions at Gold Derby. The years listed are when the ceremonies aired. Note that we missed Best Picture the first five years in a row (2016-20), while we got it right the most recent five years running (2021-25).
2025 Oscars: 18 of 23 correct
Gold Derby missed: lead actress, film editing, animated feature, animated short, live action short
2024 Oscars: 17 of 23 correct
Gold Derby missed: lead actress, costume design, makeup & hairstyling, sound, animated feature, documentary short
2023 Oscars: 18 of 23 correct
Gold Derby missed: lead actor, supporting actress, costume design, makeup & hairstyling, production design
2022 Oscars: 22 of 23 correct
Gold Derby missed: animated short
2021 Oscars: 18 of 23 correct
Gold Derby missed: lead actress, lead actor, cinematography, song, documentary short
2020 Oscars: 21 of 24 correct
Gold Derby missed: picture, director, sound editing
2019 Oscars: 14 of 24 correct
Gold Derby missed: picture, lead actress, original screenplay, costume design, film editing, production design, score, sound editing, visual effects, live action short
2018 Oscars: 19 of 24 correct
Gold Derby missed: picture, visual effects, documentary feature, documentary short, live action short
2017 Oscars: 16 of 24 correct
Gold Derby missed: picture, lead actor, costume design, film editing, makeup & hairstyling, sound editing, sound mixing, live action short
2016 Oscars: 17 of 24 correct
Gold Derby missed: picture, supporting actor, song, visual effects, animated short, documentary short, live action short
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