‘Emilia Pérez’ plummets to 4th place in Oscar odds amid Karla Sofía Gascón mess
What a difference a week makes.
When the Oscars nominations came out on the morning of Jan. 23, Emilia Pérez dominated the field with a record 13 bids (the most ever for a non-English language film). Many awards pundits thought the French musical dramedy from acclaimed filmmaker Jacques Audiard could go all the way and win Best Picture, and Gold Derby’s official odds on Jan. 24 reflected that. At the time, Emilia Pérez stood in second place behind only Brady Corbet‘s The Brutalist.
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However, after multiple scandals involving lead actress Karla Sofía Gascón erupted, Emilia Pérez has now tumbled down to fourth place in our Best Picture rankings. Gascón (who made history as the first openly trans actress to receive an Oscar bid) first accused “people working with” her co-nominee Fernanda Torres of “tearing [Gascón] down.” She then deleted her X account after offensive social media posts from the past five years were uncovered. Despite multiple apologies from Gascón, her costar Zoe Salda?a publicly distanced herself, saying Gascón’s racist and Islamophobic commentary “makes me sad.”
There was additional fallout in terms of Emilia Pérez‘s Oscar chances: the Netflix film dropped from second place to third place in Best Adapted Screenplay, behind Conclave and A Complete Unknown. And Audiard tumbled to third place for Best Director, behind Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) and Sean Baker (Anora). However, Emilia Pérez currently holds steady in all of its other races, including Salda?a still in first place in Best Supporting Actress, and the film is still projected to win Best International Film and Best Song (“El Mal”). Gascón remains in last place in Best Actress.
Below are the current Oscar winner predictions for all of the categories in which Emilia Pérez is competing, updated on Feb. 1, with predicted winners denoted in gold.
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BEST PICTURE
1. The Brutalist — 5/1
2. Anora — 7/1
3. Conclave — 15/2
4. Emilia Pérez — 8/1
5. Wicked — 17/2
6. A Complete Unknown — 9/1
7. The Substance — 23/2
8. I’m Still Here — 23/2
9. Dune: Part Two — 14/1
10. Nickel Boys — 18/1
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) — 31/20
2. Sean Baker (Anora) — 5/1
3. Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) — 5/1
4. Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) — 6/1
5. James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) — 13/2
BEST ACTRESS
1. Demi Moore (The Substance) — 19/10
2. Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) — 31/10
3. Mikey Madison (Anora) — 9/2
4. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) — 13/2
5. Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez) — 17/2
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Zoe Salda?a (Emilia Pérez) — 83/50
2. Ariana Grande (Wicked) — 37/10
3. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) — 6/1
4. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) — 6/1
5. Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown) — 15/2
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Conclave — 13/8
2. A Complete Unknown — 9/2
3. Emilia Pérez — 5/1
4. Sing Sing — 6/1
5. Nickel Boys — 7/1
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. The Brutalist — 7/4
2. Dune: Part Two — 37/10
3. Nosferatu — 9/2
4. Emilia Pérez — 13/2
5. Maria — 8/1
BEST FILM EDITING
1. Conclave — 53/20
2. The Brutalist — 10/3
3. Emilia Pérez — 4/1
4. Anora — 9/2
5. Wicked — 15/2
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
1. The Substance — 7/4
2. Wicked — 37/10
3. A Different Man — 5/1
4. Nosferatu — 6/1
5. Emilia Pérez — 8/1
BEST SCORE
1. The Brutalist — 9/5
2. Conclave — 69/20
3. Emilia Pérez — 11/2
4. The Wild Robot — 6/1
5. Wicked — 7/1
BEST SONG
1. Emilia Pérez (“El Mal”) — 9/5
2. The Six Triple Eight (“The Journey”) — 4/1
3. Emilia Pérez (“Mi Camino”) — 5/1
4. Sing Sing (“Like a Bird”) — 6/1
5. Elton John: Never Too Late (“Never Too Late”) — 13/2
BEST SOUND
1. Wicked — 23/10
2. Dune: Part Two — 29/10
3. A Complete Unknown — 4/1
4. Emilia Pérez — 6/1
5. The Wild Robot — 17/2
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
1. Emilia Pérez — 11/5
2. I’m Still Here — 49/20
3. The Seed of the Sacred Fig — 11/2
4. Flow — 13/2
5. The Girl With the Needle — 17/2
Gold Derby’s Oscar odds are based on the combined forecasts of experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, editors who cover awards year-round for this website, top 24 users who had the best accuracy scores last year, and the mass of users who make up our biggest predictions bloc. As of today, more than 7,200 people have chimed in with their picks. Track the awards races by exploring all of our charts and graphs, and be sure to sound off in our forums.
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