Emmy Experts Typing: Is ‘Slow Horses’ a dark horse for multiple wins?
Welcome to Emmy Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Emmy race — via Slack, of course. This week, we discuss the drama the categories, of which “Shōgun” is favored to win many.
Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! We’ve circled back to the drama around drama and I’m excited! It feels like we’ve got some real races here — or is that just me creating drama where none exists during the dog days of summer? We’re not moving off “Shōgun” for Best Drama Series (sorry to “The Morning Show” and “The Crown”) or either actress frontrunner (Anna Sawai and Elizabeth Debicki). I also feel fairly confident in Billy Crudup winning for “The Morning Show,” a lead dressed in supporting clothes and a beloved performance from a previous winner. But Best Drama Actor remains really tight in my head, and while I’ve still got Hiroyuki Sanada winning, I’m becoming more and more convinced Gary Oldman might pull it off for “Slow Horses.” After the nominations, the Apple drama was one of the shows that got a real bump: The TV academy clearly watched the show and also liked it. And as we’ve discussed — despite protests to the contrary — “Shōgun” did underperform with its acting notices, missing a widely expected nomination for Cosmo Jarvis in Best Drama Actor and failing to place Moeka Hoshi into the Best Drama Supporting Actress race. So, the actors were maybe slow to embrace “Shōgun,” and while the strong Phase 2 campaign may have done its job to raise awareness among voters, we kind of already know they liked “Slow Horses.” (“Shōgun” got five acting nominations while “Slow Horses” received three — not far off!) If Oldman wins, I think normies would be surprised — but he was the runaway favorite here before “Shōgun” moved to Best Drama Series and maybe he never lost that standing even with Sanada as competition. Plus, as we know, Sanada is playing the Logan Roy of the “Shōgun” universe and Brian Cox never won for playing Logan Roy despite deserving that kind of accolade. So, I’m all but certain to switch to Oldman once we make our final picks — I just haven’t done it because I wonder if the voters will want to be somewhat adventurous with their choices. The other category where “Shōgun” might fall despite its status as a favorite is in Best Drama Writing. You’ve got “Slow Horses” there and I’ve got “Mr. & Mrs. Smith.” But my pick might be more of a hopediction than something based in reality. What do you make of these categories and will “Slow Horses” win both?
joyceeng: My feelings about Sanada vs. Oldman have not changed. The odds have Sanada winning by a landslide — and look, maybe he will, we’ll never know — but I think that’s also because “Slow Horses” is not a populist show. Not that “Shōgun” is either, but you know what I mean. “Shōgun” has been noisier and bigger — in terms of hype, buzz, scale — from its inception, while “Slow Horses,” which has always been great, is more of a iykyk type show. And now Emmy voters know. That’s also why I very likely will not deviate from “Slow Horses” in writing. It’d be iffier if the entire membership were voting for all winners, but it’s just branch voting. One of my favorite winning pairs was “The Americans” taking writing and actor for Matthew Rhys (#justice4keri) in 2018, and that was like when “Friday Night Lights” won writing and actor for Kyle Chandler in 2011 under the tape system. Obviously neither show won series against top dogs “Game of Thrones” and “Mad Men,” respectively. It’ll be a tougher double for “Slow Horses” to pull off (and I think it would pull it off under the tape system), but that’s what this reminds me of. The two places I have your beloved “Mr. & Mrs. Smith” winning are the guest categories for Michaela Coel and John Turturro as I dissent from the consensus of Claire Foy and Nestor Carbonell. I obviously understand the Foy predictions — and I was there myself when her Season 6 return was first reported — but, no shade, the Carbonell picks kinda feel like defaulting to the person from the nomination leader and series frontrunner. We know voters can be lazy in the guest categories, but sometimes they serve up surprises — good and bad — too. Many people had Taraji P. Henson penciled in for a win last year when her “Abbott Elementary” guest spot was announced and she remained the odds-on fave throughout, but Judith Light took home the gold for “Poker Face.”
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Christopher Rosen: We differ on those categories too and I feel like we will until the end. I don’t think Coel stands out far enough from either Sarah Paulson or Parker Posey to upset Foy. In terms of the show, Coel kind of had an arc, sure, but both Paulson and Posey play more memorable characters; in terms of the acting community, Paulson and Posey are beloved veterans with deep working relationships across many sectors and years, whereas Coel doesn’t have that kind of longevity yet. On the actor side, while I agree that Carbonell feels like a red herring, I think that’s another place where “Slow Horses” might emerge victorious for Jonathan Pryce — and that his onscreen grandson was a fellow nominee feels, I don’t know, like a feather in his hat. (If Turturro won there, however, I wouldn’t be surprised: while he would rank behind Paul Dano in terms of character, I think Turturro’s stature in the industry is immense; pause here to remind readers that it’s rarely just a meritocracy when voting for awards.) In terms of Best Drama Actress, Sawai is the frontrunner by a wide margin and it would be foolish to go against the current there. But I also know you’ve taken a measured approach with “Shōgun” from the start, so I must ask: If she does end up losing, who do you expect to have the juice to pull off the upset?
joyceeng: Longevity doesn’t mean much when then-20-year-old Storm Reid beat Cherry Jones, Harriet Walter, Hiam Abbass, Melanie Lynskey and Anna Torv last year. One thing I love about the Emmys is that they’re not afraid to embrace the young guard and unknowns/lesser known actors. Think of all the people who were convinced Zendaya couldn’t win because she was too young and “new” (to voters) and “Euphoria” isn’t your typical Emmy show. You really don’t have to be a big name or well established to win — that could certainly help — so long as they watch and like your performance. They know Coel, who’s already an Emmy winner in writing and a past acting nominee. I can definitely see Pryce prevailing, and his nomination is more of Jack Lowden carrying him than him carrying Lowden. Oldman and Lowden are the best parts of the show and co-leads (Lowden : “Slow Horses” :: Hannah Einbinder : “Hacks”), but Pryce has an easier path to a win than Lowden does. You’re of the belief that Jennifer Aniston and Reese Witherspoon might split votes, but I’ve always felt Aniston had the edge — there were various times during Phase 1 when I had Witherspoon out. Aniston’s performance, not to mention storyline, was better received. For symmetry, it’d be nice to see Imelda Staunton win — and especially if Foy nabs her third Emmy for this performance — but “The Crown” will probably have to be content with its surefire victory for Debicki. Not to invoke 2018 again, but “The Crown” notched surprise wins for Foy in actress and Stephen Daldry in directing then. Daldry is now nominated for helming the series finale and sits in second in the odds behind “Shōgun.” I still have “Shōgun,” which is lucky its over-submissions didn’t bite it in the butt, but I wouldn’t be terribly shocked if something else triumphed save for “Winning Time: The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty.”
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Christopher Rosen: If it went to the most deserving nominee, though, I’d have “Winning Time” right at the top. I think Daldry is certainly in play for “The Crown” — the series finale is pretty great even if the season itself was of the mixed variety — and they’ve done a good job of reminding people that this is the first episode Daldry has directed since the penultimate episode of Season 2. We’ve talked about this with “Shōgun” and I don’t know that it matters — and it might have more to do with the way that we watched it, on screeners, versus how most others experienced the show — but all the episodes kind of run together (in a good way!). “Crimson Sky” is, of course, memorable because of what happens with Mariko. But I don’t really remember much else notable in that one — whereas in “The Crown,” for instance, there are several key scenes I can recall with not just the queen and her past selves, but the kids and Prince Philip as well. Does any of this matter? Maybe not, but I think if you have the idea that “Crimson Sky” is “Connor’s Wedding,” that’s maybe not the case. I guess let’s end here with just a brief mention of Elizabeth Debicki’s expected supporting win for “The Crown.” If you had to put someone in second place, who would you choose?
joyceeng: As we’ve discussed, her co-star, Lesley Manville. Everyone will have their personal faves, but no one else objectively makes sense to be a (distant) runner-up. Congrats to Liz, but I hope this is the first category in the OOP because there is zero suspense here.
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