Emmys Voter’s Guide: Who Should Win in Every Primetime Drama Category?
It’s happening. Or, better put, it’s about to happen. It’s not over just yet — not officially — but after FX successfully shifted “Shōgun” from the Limited Series categories to Drama, all indications point toward a big night for the international epic at this year’s (second) Primetime Emmy Awards. Maybe even a record-setting night. After all, before the move, the Drama contenders weren’t exactly peak TV. Maybe they were Peak TV contenders, in that they were the result of too much television overwhelming voters with big, expensive options and distracting them from lesser-known, higher-quality programming, but they weren’t peak TV in the sense that these shows ascended to the qualitative top of our nation’s mountain of television.
Got all that? Well then you likely remember that earlier in the awards cycle, we looked at whether “Shōgun” could break the Emmy record for most wins in a single season of television (currently held by “Game of Thrones” with 12 trophies) — and whether it should. Here, we’re once again approaching potential winners based on merit. Most of the categories considered include at least one “Shōgun” nominee (the overall nominations leader with 25 nods in 22 categories), but this guide is meant to be an all-inclusive, one-stop-shop for Emmy voters (and those curious what drives Emmy voters’ thinking). Hopefully, it helps illuminate the options presented while settling any lingering indecision. Later, we’ll tackle the comedy categories, which will include plenty of debate over “The Bear.”
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And if that’s not enough, IndieWire has a full list of predictions for you to peruse at your leisure. What will win? What could win? What should win? Why? No matter your question, we’ve got you covered, so let’s dig into this year’s Primetime Emmy ceremony’s Drama categories.
Supporting Actress
Christine Baranski, “The Gilded Age”
Nicole Beharie, “The Morning Show”
Elizabeth Debicki, “The Crown”
Greta Lee, “The Morning Show”
Lesley Manville, “The Crown”
Karen Pittman, “The Morning Show”
Holland Taylor, “The Morning Show”
Despite the prevalent meme showing Elizabeth Debicki in total shock after hearing her name called at a lavish awards ceremony, the “Crown” star has not won an Emmy — not yet, anyway. (The internet-famous moment stems from the 2024 Golden Globe Awards, where Debicki beat out Meryl Streep, J. Smith-Cameron, and Christina Ricci, among others, much to her astonishment.) In her second nomination (both for playing Princess Diana), the odds are again in her favor (she previously lost to Jennifer Coolidge in a mild upset), and she’ll likely take home the gold. Which is fine. Debicki is a genuine talent, but my primary gripe with her victory for this particular project is that she deserves a far better showcase than what Peter Morgan gave her in “The Crown’s” final season. I mean, she was a ghost for God’s sake.
That being said, Netflix’s royal drama ending in decidedly lackluster fashion isn’t the death knell it could be in another year; not when its stiffest competition is “The Morning Show,” an objectively ludicrous series where the finest acting requires the performer to ground preposterous scenes in an earnest form of alt-realism while simultaneously swelling the melodrama to jaw-dropping levels of untethered entertainment. If pressed to choose between the contenders from the most-nominated shows, I’d advocate for Nicole Beharie, whose newcomer character got to appraise the chaos all around her with a near-constant look of utter incredulousness. Which was fun. And smart. And worked as a perfect support to the oblivious leads, regularly in need of a good side-eye.
But I also don’t have to choose between those two shows. There’s a third option, and that option is Christine Baranski, and Christine Baranski is always a winning ticket. So vote for her.
Supporting Actor
Tadanobu Asano, “Shōgun”
Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show”
Mark Duplass, “The Morning Show”
Jon Hamm, “The Morning Show”
Takehiro Hira, “Shōgun”
Jack Lowden, “Slow Horses”
Jonathan Pryce, “The Crown”
As I previously discussed while breaking down “Shōgun’s” overall merits at this year’s Emmys, Tadanobu Asano is the obvious choice here. That doesn’t mean his fellow nominees are undeserving. Far from it. Jack Lowden’s inclusion was a pleasant surprise on nominations morning, especially if you were a “Slow Horses” fan who only expected the TV Academy to only nominate Gary Oldman. Takehiro Hira was, too, considering many thought “Shōgun” would do well at the Emmys overall but weren’t sure how the acting branch, in particular, would respond. No one is going to complain about Jon Hamm being nominated, Billy Crudup has become a perennial contender, and Mark Duplass is taking that “Morning Show” money and putting it to great use. Even Pryce, who wasn’t a huge factor in “The Crown’s” closing episodes, isn’t an unpopular pick in a year where he’s also part of the “Slow Horses” ensemble (for which he’s nominated as a Guest Actor).
Still, this is Asano’s to lose. He created a vivid, distinct, and beloved character in a big, beautiful cast, channeling his powerful charisma into the traitorous yet affable Yabushige — a series highlight in a series full of them.
Directing
Stephen Daldry, “The Crown”
Mimi Leder, “The Morning Show”
Saul Metzstein, “Slow Horses”
Hiro Murai, “Mr. and Mrs. Smith”
Salli Richardson-Whitfield, “Winning Time”
Frederick E.O. Toye, “Shōgun”
Another competitive category made less so by the presence of “Shōgun” — a drama whose individual parts are as impressive as their combined efforts toward the whole — I’ll give a quick shout-out to Hiro Murai, whose tonally sound and beautifully staged “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” premiere is sleek and sassy in equal measure, as well as Saul Metzstein’s ambitious start to “Slow Horses” Season 3. But this is Frederick E.O. Toye’s category. You can’t argue with “Crimson Sky,” his nominated episode, and the sweeping intimacy of “Shōgun” would’ve never come through so well without Toye and his directorial team.
Writing
Rachel Kondo and Justin Marks, “Shōgun”
Rachel Kondo and Caillin Puente, “Shōgun”
Peter Morgan and Meriel Sheibani-Clare, “The Crown”
Geneva Robertson-Dworet and Graham Wagner, “Fallout”
Francesca Sloane and Donald Glover, “Mr. and Mrs. Smith”
Will Smith, “Slow Horses”
The question here isn’t if “Shōgun” should win, but which “Shōgun” episode is most deserving. I expect the TV Academy to stick with “Anjin,” the premiere episode penned by showrunner Marks and co-creator/EP Kondo, but “Crimson Sky” has been nominated so often across the board, there’s a shot that voters buck their typical bias toward showrunners and reward what many see as the best episode of the season. Typically, I’d encourage such open-minded thinking, but I actually think “Anjin” is the more deft piece of scripting. Think about how much has to get set up in that first hour, from the mass of characters to their fluctuating loyalties, and then remember how much fun the introduction to “Shōgun” really was. For a series that had so much working against it becoming a phenomenon, “Anjin” hurdles those barriers so smoothly, you may not even remember they were there.
Actor
Idris Elba, “Hijack”
Donald Glover, “Mr. and Mrs. Smith”
Walton Goggins, “Fallout”
Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses”
Hiroyuki Sanada, “Shōgun”
Dominic West, “The Crown”
There are number of worthy options among this year’s acting nominees, and thankfully no one who truly doesn’t belong. Oldman brought a cherished literary character to life with specificity and clout, winning over old and new fans alike. Goggins, who’s long overdue for an Emmy of his own, is fantastic despite being buried by prosthetics for 80 percent of “Fallout.” Even West does an admirable job with a character who earned zero votes from of goodwill alone. But this is Sanada’s year. A veteran actor given a meaty lead role, the “Shōgun” lead delivers a measured, commanding turn that’s as towering as it is personal. I know we’re getting into sweep territory for the FX epic — and I promise, if I could justify giving this to Goggins, I would try — but there’s no real value in spreading the love just for the sake of it. Not in this category.
Actress
Jennifer Aniston, “The Morning Show”
Carrie Coon, “The Gilded Age”
Maya Erskine, “Mr. and Mrs. Smith”
Anna Sawai, “Shōgun”
Imelda Staunton, “The Crown”
Reese Witherspoon, “The Morning Show”
Carrie Coon… Emmy winner — it just sounds right, doesn’t it? So much so, it’s hard to believe she doesn’t already have a winged golden statue of her own. If such a flagrant omission bothers you as much as me, then I can’t blame you for casting a vote in her favor. But if you’re trying to be objective (yuck, why) and look at the depth, precision, and challenge inherent to each nominee, it’s hard to ignore Anna Sawai. The “Shōgun” standout broke our hearts and became a meme; she spoke in multiple languages and fought as convincingly as she fell for a certain Protestant pilot; she maintained consistency across Lady Mariko’s expansive, tortured arc, and she pushed her to a pivotal climax that no viewer will soon forget. For as well as other contenders did with their own material, “Shōgun” gave Sawai an incredible test — and she aced it.
Drama Series
“The Crown”
“Fallout”
“The Gilded Age”
“The Morning Show”
“Mr. and Mrs. Smith”
“Shōgun”
“Slow Horses”
“3 Body Problem”
Really, there are only two worthy choices for the Drama category’s top honor: “Shōgun” (obviously) and “Slow Horses” (hell yeah). “The Morning Show” is too (unintentionally) silly. “The Gilded Age” is too (intentionally) frivolous. “The Crown” peaked two years ago, and “3 Body Problem” crashed and burned right off the bat. “Fallout” and “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” certainly have their merits (especially the latter), but they’re not on the same formal or narrative levels as our top two picks. In the end, it’s gotta be “Shōgun” — but I hope “Slow Horses” can race into the top spot next year, when “Shōgun” won’t be around. (There’s no way Season 2 will be ready for the 2025 Emmys.)
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