How every 2025 Best Picture nominee can win at least one Oscar
You get an Oscar, you get an Oscar, every Best Picture nominee gets an Oscar? Not always. For most of the past decade when the Oscars used the sliding scale in Best Picture, most, if not all, of the Best Picture nominees every year walked away with at least one Oscar. Six years ago, all eight Best Picture nominees were Oscar winners. Five years ago, eight of the nine films in the top category claimed a statuette. Four years ago, seven of the eight nominees were victorious.
But ever since the Academy returned to a set 10 nominees in Best Picture three years ago, that high conversion rate has been more difficult to come by. Three years ago, four Best Picture nominees left empty-handed. Two years ago, five were goose-egged as most of them — The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Tár, and Triangle of Sadness — had the misfortune of facing seven-time winner Everything Everywhere All at Once in multiple categories. And last year, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, and Past Lives were Oscar-less.
More from GoldDerby
At the moment, Gold Derby odds predict seven of this year’s 10 Best Picture nominees to win at least one Oscar: Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Substance, and Wicked. But that doesn’t mean A Complete Unknown, I’m Still Here, and Nickel Boys are totally out of it. Let’s break down each Best Picture nominee and its strongest category.
SEE ‘The Brutalist’ takes early lead in Oscar winner predictions
Anora
Nominations: 6
Predicted to win/strongest category: 1 (Best Original Screenplay)
Regardless of what happens in the wide-open Best Picture race, Best Original Screenplay has been earmarked as Sean Baker‘s to lose ever since Anora won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival. It’s favored to win at the Writers Guild of America Awards, where numerous scripts were deemed ineligible, and BAFTA. Anora suffered a hiccup at the Golden Globes, going 0-for-5, losing Best Screenplay to Conclave. But the Globes only have one screenplay category, and it fell to a film that is competing in adapted at the Oscars. The screenplay categories are often consolation prizes for auteurs and/or strong contenders that come up short in Best Picture (see: Manchester by the Sea, Get Out, Promising Young Woman, Belfast, and Anatomy of a Fall), and Anora would fit that bill.
The Brutalist
Nominations: 10
Predicted to win: 5
Strongest category: Best Director
The Brutalist is currently forecasted to turn half of its 10 bids into Oscar gold in Best Picture, Best Director for Brady Corbet, Best Actor for Adrien Brody, Best Cinematography, and Best Original Score. Best Director is where it holds its best odds as Corbet, who won the Golden Globe, maintains the top spot into Phase 2 for his three-and-a-half-hour epic. He’s also the favorite at the Directors Guild of America Awards and BAFTA. The Brutalist dealt with some online controversy last week when Corbet had to clarify the film’s use of AI, leading some to speculate that this will hurt him and the film. But the brouhaha will probably have the same impact as the online uproar over Jane Campion‘s Critics Choice Awards speech days before final voting began three years ago (read: none). Even if The Brutalist loses Best Director, it’s very competitive in the aforementioned categories, so it’s unlikely it’ll get completely blanked.
A Complete Unknown
Nominations: 8
Predicted to win: 0
Strongest category: Best Actor
Of the eight films to earn at least five nominations — all of which are Best Picture nominees — A Complete Unknown is the only one not predicted to win at least one award right now. It’s last in three categories, but its hopes for Oscar glory have always rested on Timothée Chalamet in Best Actor. Sitting in second place behind Brody, Chalamet has strung together an unorthodox campaign, including pulling double duty on Saturday Night Live this past weekend, while the late-breaking Bob Dylan biopic is cresting at the right time, having hit all the major precursors in the lead-up to its strong Oscar showing, which included surprise bids for James Mangold in director and Monica Barbaro in supporting actress. Chalamet lost the Globe to Brody but is the frontrunner at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. Brody, however, is the favorite at BAFTA. Unless A Complete Unknown manages an upset elsewhere, Chalamet will have to pull an Olivia Colman to prevent his film from going home empty-handed.
Conclave
Nominations: 8
Predicted to win: 2
Strongest category: Best Adapted Screenplay
Conclave took a hit with misses in Best Director and Best Cinematography, but it’s safe to snag Best Adapted Screenplay for Peter Straughan, per the odds. It has the Globe win in a combined category under its belt and is an even bigger favorite at BAFTA (it’s ineligible at WGA). The papal thriller is also in first place in Best Film Editing, a category that is as unpredictable as Best Picture, with minimal spread between the five nominees. If Conclave loses adapted but wins editing, that opens up the former category for another Best Picture nominee to claim (more on that below).
Dune: Part Two
Nominations: 5
Predicted to win/strongest category: 1 (Best Visual Effects)
One thing’s for sure: Dune: Part Two is not going to win as many Oscars as the first film did. Because it can’t. Dune converted six of its 10 bids into wins. Dune: Part Two doesn’t even have six nominations. Its sole victory is expected to come in visual effects, which the first film also won and where the sequel is one of two Best Picture nominees in the category (Wicked is the other). This is Avatar: The Way of Water redux. That film was locked for visual effects — its only prize from four nominations, down from the three wins from nine bids the original Avatar got.
SEE A year after Barbenheimer, 2025 Best Picture Oscar contenders are largely box-office lightweights
Emilia Pérez
Nominations: 13
Predicted to win: 3
Strongest category: Best Supporting Actress
Adored by the industry, hated online, the nomination leader is not currently forecasted to be the win leader. Its best bet is in Best Supporting Actress for Zoe Salda?a, who has already won the Globe and is predicted to sweep Critics Choice, SAG, and BAFTA en route to the Oscar, just like Da’Vine Joy Randolph did last year. Emilia Pérez‘s next strongest category is Best International Feature Film, where I’m Still Here is giving chase following its unexpected Best Picture nomination. Best Original Song, where Emilia Pérez has double bids, is the third category it’s expected to win with Globe champ “El Mal.” Like The Brutalist, it’s unlikely Emilia Pérez will end the night without any hardware.
I’m Still Here
Nominations: 3
Predicted to win: 0
Strongest category: Best Actress
The biggest shocker of nomination morning, I’m Still Here cracked the Best Picture lineup. It’s not expected to win that award (it’s in eighth place), but that bid has no doubt boosted Fernanda Torres into second place, behind Demi Moore (The Substance), in the Best Actress race for a battle of the Golden Globe champs. With campaign pros Sony Pictures Classics behind her, Torres, who has also weathered her own resurfaced controversy, will have to rely on campaigning since she is not nominated at any of the remaining precursors like Moore is. Because of this and the Globes’ split categories, the Oscars will be the first time Torres has faced her Oscar competition anywhere, so don’t count her out. The Brazilian film is also in second in Best International Feature Film, but it’s hard to bet against 13-time nominee Emilia Pérez there.
Nickel Boys
Nominations: 2
Predicted to win: 0
Strongest category: Best Adapted Screenplay
Nickel Boys made it three consecutive years of one of the Best Picture nominees only having a writing bid as its other nomination. Two years ago, Women Talking won Best Adapted Screenplay and lost Best Picture. Last year, Past Lives lost Best Original Screenplay and the top prize. In last place in both its categories, Nickel Boys is shaping up to be the next Past Lives than Women Talking and is the least likely Best Picture nominee to grab a win. Its path to the adapted screenplay statuette is very, very narrow but there. Overwhelming favorite Conclave would have to lose, of course. There are two other stronger Best Picture nominees in the mix, A Complete Unknown and Emilia Pérez, but both are driven more by their musical performances than scripts. Nickel Boys does have prestigious pedigree as it’s adapted from a Pulitzer Prize winner and could get ambition points for the first-person POV storytelling. Its cause would be helped by a precursor win, most likely at WGA, where it’s in second place behind A Complete Unknown.
The Substance
Nominations: 5
Predicted to win: 2
Strongest category: Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Long before The Substance was even predicted to collect a Best Picture nomination and a Best Actress bid for Moore, it was seen as a shoo-in in Best Makeup and Hairstyling for its intricate prosthetics on Moore, Margaret Qualley, and the glorious creation that is Monstro Elisasue. Moore moved into first place in the Best Actress odds after she won the Globe and gave the speech of the night, so she could give the body horror hit a bookend Oscar. Torres is on her heels in Best Actress, but Moore can build on her momentum at the remaining precursors, all of which she’s predicted to win and where Torres is not nominated. If The Substance takes these two categories, it’ll be the fourth straight year of a film winning makeup and hairstyling along with a lead acting award.
Wicked
Nominations: 10
Predicted to win: 3
Strongest category: Best Costume Design
Pink goes good with green, so it makes sense that Wicked is the favorite in both Best Costume Design and Best Production Design, with better odds in the former, for its extravagant world-building of Oz. Wicked is also in first place in Best Sound, another open category. The first Dune won Best Sound, but the weaker Dune: Part Two is in second place. Wicked is one of three music-based films in Best Sound alongside A Complete Unknown and Emilia Pérez, and it might have an edge as its singing was recorded live on set. But even without Best Sound, Wicked is in the The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez zone of looking solid for at least one trophy.
Best of GoldDerby
Sign up for Gold Derby's Newsletter. For the latest news, follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.
Solve the daily Crossword
