Feinberg Forecast: Final Oscar Nomination Predictions
PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter’s awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and awards strategists, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself.
*BEST PICTURE*
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Projected Nominees
Belfast (Focus, Nov. 12, trailer) AFI*, BAFTA, CCA, DGA, HFPA, NBR, PGA, SAG
The Power of the Dog (Netflix, Nov. 17, trailer) AFI, BAFTA, CCA, DGA, HFPA, PGA
Dune (Warner Bros., Oct. 22, trailer) AFI, BAFTA, CCA, DGA, HFPA, NBR, PGA, WGA
West Side Story (Disney, Dec. 10, trailer) AFI, CCA, DGA, HFPA, NBR, PGA, WGA
Don’t Look Up (Netflix, Dec. 10, trailer) AFI, BAFTA, CCA, HFPA, NBR, PGA, SAG, WGA
Licorice Pizza (MGM/UA, Nov. 26, trailer) AFI, BAFTA, CCA, DGA, HFPA, NBR, PGA, WGA
CODA (Apple, Aug. 13, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, PGA, SAG, WGA
Tick, Tick … Boom! (Netflix, Nov. 19, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, PGA, WGA
King Richard (Warner Bros., Nov. 19, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, NBR, PGA, SAG, WGA
Drive My Car (Sideshow/Janus, Nov. 24, trailer) LAFCA, NSFC, NYFCC
Alternate
Nightmare Alley (Searchlight, Dec. 17, trailer) AFI, CCA, NBR, WGA
Potential Surprise
The Lost Daughter (Netflix, Dec. 17, trailer) FI, IFP
Shoulda Been a Contender
Red Rocket (A24, Dec. 3, trailer)
*BEST DIRECTOR*
Projected Nominees
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) BAFTA, CCA, DGA, HFPA, LAFCA, NYFCC
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast) CCA, DGA, HFPA
Denis Villeneuve (Dune) — podcast CCA, DGA, HFPA
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story) — podcast CCA, DGA, HFPA
Adam McKay (Don’t Look Up) — podcast
Alternate
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza) BAFTA, CCA, DGA, NBR
Potential Surprise
Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car) — podcast BAFTA
Shoulda Been a Contender
Asghar Farhadi (A Hero) — podcast
*BEST ACTOR*
Projected Nominees
Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick … Boom!) — podcast CCA, HFPA, SAG
Will Smith (King Richard) — podcast BAFTA, CCA, HFPA, NBR, SAG
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog) — podcast BAFTA, CCA, HFPA, NYFCC, SAG
Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up) BAFTA, HFPA
Jude Hill (Belfast)
Alternate
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth) — podcast CCA, HFPA, SAG
Potential Surprise
Bradley Cooper (Nightmare Alley)
Shoulda Been a Contender
Simon Rex (Red Rocket) — podcast FI, IFP, LAFCA
*BEST ACTRESS*
Projected Nominees
Lady Gaga (House of Gucci) — podcast BAFTA, CCA, HFPA, NYFCC, SAG
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) — podcast CCA, HFPA, SAG
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) — podcast CCA, HFPA, IFP, SAG
Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) — podcast LAFCA, NSFC
Emilia Jones (CODA) BAFTA
Alternate
Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World) BAFTA
Potential Surprise
Kristen Stewart (Spencer) — podcast CCA, HFPA
Shoulda Been a Contender
Rachel Zegler (West Side Story) HFPA, NBR
*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*
Projected Nominees
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) BAFTA, CCA, HFPA, LAFCA, NYFCC, SAG
Troy Kotsur (CODA) BAFTA, CCA, FI, HFPA, IFP, SAG
Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) SAG
Ciarán Hinds (Belfast) BAFTA, CCA, HFPA, NBR
Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog) BAFTA
Alternate
Jamie Dornan (Belfast) CCA, HFPA
Potential Surprise
Jared Leto (House of Gucci) — podcast CCA, SAG
Shoulda Been a Contender
Mike Faist (West Side Story) BAFTA
*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*
Projected Nominees
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) BAFTA, CCA, HFPA, LAFCA, SAG
Caitríona Balfe (Belfast) BAFTA, CCA, HFPA, SAG
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog) CCA, HFPA, SAG
Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley) — podcast SAG
Marlee Matlin (CODA) IFP
Alternate
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) — podcast BAFTA, CCA, HFPA, NBR
Potential Surprise
Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter) BAFTA, FI, IFP
Shoulda Been a Contender
Judi Dench (Belfast) — podcast
*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*
Projected Nominees
The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion) BAFTA, CCA, HFPA, USC
Dune (Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts & Denis Villeneuve) BAFTA, CCA, USC, WGA
The Lost Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal) BAFTA, CCA, FI, IFP, USC
Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi & Takamasa Oe) BAFTA, LAFCA, NSFC
CODA (Sian Heder) BAFTA, CCA, WGA
Alternate
West Side Story (Tony Kushner) CCA, WGA
Potential Surprise
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Joel Coen) NBR, USC
Shoulda Been a Contender
Nightmare Alley (Guillermo del Toro & Kim Morgan) — podcast (del Toro) WGA
*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*
Projected Nominees
Belfast (Kenneth Branagh) BAFTA, CCA, HFPA
Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson) BAFTA, CCA, HFPA, NYFCC, WGA
Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay & David Sirota) — podcast (McKay) BAFTA, CCA, HFPA, WGA
Being the Ricardos (Aaron Sorkin) — podcast BAFTA, CCA, HFPA, WGA
Parallel Mothers (Pedro Almodóvar) — podcast
Alternate
King Richard (Zach Baylin) BAFTA, CCA, WGA
Potential Surprise
C’mon Cmon (Mike Mills) FI
Shoulda Been a Contender
Last Night in Soho (Krysty Wilson-Cairns & Edgar Wright)
*BEST ANIMATED FEATURE*
Projected Nominees
Encanto (Disney) ACE, ADG, ANN, BAFTA, CAS, CCA, HFPA, MPSE, NBR, PGA
The Mitchells vs. the Machines (Netflix) ACE, ADG, ANN, BAFTA, CAS, CCA, MPSE, NYFCC, PGA
Luca (Pixar) ACE, ADG, ANN, BAFTA, CAS, CCA, HFPA, MPSE, PGA
Raya and the Last Dragon (Disney) ACE, ADG, ANN, CAS, CCA, HFPA, MPSE, PGA
Flee (Neon/Participant) ANN, BAFTA, CCA, HFPA, LAFCA
Alternate
Sing 2 (Illumination/Universal) ACE, ADG, ANN, CAS, MPSE, PGA
Potential Surprise
Belle (GKIDS) ANN
Shoulda Been a Contender
Vivo (Netflix)
*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*
Projected Nominees
Summer of Soul (Hulu/Searchlight) ACE, AFI*, BAFTA, CAS, CCA, CEH, DGA, FI, IDA, IFP, LAFCA, MPSE, NBR, PGA
Flee (Neon/Participant) ACE, BAFTA, CCA, CEH, FI, IDA, IFP, MPSE, NBR, NSFC, NYFCC, PGA
The Rescue (Nat Geo) ACE, BAFTA, CCA, CEH, DGA, NBR, PGA
Ascension (MTV) CCA, CEH, DGA, FI, IFP, NBR, PGA
Attica (Showtime) CCA, DGA, NBR
Alternate
The Velvet Underground (Apple) — podcast (Todd Haynes) ACE, CAS, CEH, MPSE
Potential Surprise
Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry (Apple) ACE, MPSE
Shoulda Been a Contender
Francesco (Discovery+)
*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*
Projected Nominees
Drive My Car (Japan) BAFTA, CCA, FI, HFPA, IFP
The Worst Person in the World (Norway) BAFTA, CCA, IFP, NBR, NYFCC
The Hand of God (Italy) BAFTA, CCA, HFPA, MPSE
A Hero (Iran) — podcast (Asghar Farhadi) CCA, HFPA, MPSE, NBR
Plaza Catedral (Panama)
Alternate
Compartment No. 6 (Finland) FI, HFPA
Potential Surprise
The Good Boss (Spain)
Shoulda Been a Contender
Parallel Mothers (Spain) FI, HFPA
*BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY*
Projected Nominees
Dune (Greig Fraser) ASC, BAFTA, CCA, CI
The Power of the Dog (Ari Wegner) ASC, BAFTA, CCA, LAFCA
Belfast (Haris Zambarloukos) ASC, CCA
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Bruno Delbonnel) ASC, BAFTA, CCA, CI, NBR
Nightmare Alley (Dan Laustsen) ASC, BAFTA, CCA
Alternate
West Side Story (Janusz Kaminski) CCA, NYFCC
Potential Surprise
C’mon C’mon (Robbie Ryan) CI
Shoulda Been a Contender
Passing (Edu Grau) FI
*BEST COSTUME DESIGN*
Projected Nominees
Dune (Robert Morgan & Jacqueline West) BAFTA, CCA, CDG
West Side Story (Paul Tazewell) CCA, CDG
Cruella (Jenny Beavan) BAFTA, CCA, CDG
Nightmare Alley (Luis Sequeira) BAFTA, CCA, CDG
The French Dispatch (Milena Canonero) BAFTA
Alternate
House of Gucci (Janty Yates) CCA, CDG
Potential Surprise
Coming 2 America (Ruth E. Carter) CDG
Shoulda Been a Contender
Last Night in Soho (Odile Dicks-Mireaux)
*BEST FILM EDITING*
Projected Nominees
Dune (Joe Walker) ACE, BAFTA, CCA
Belfast (úna Ní Dhonghaíle) ACE, BAFTA, CCA
The Power of the Dog (Peter Sciberras) ACE, CCA
No Time to Die (Tom Cross & Elliot Graham) ACE, BAFTA
West Side Story (Sarah Broshar & Michael Kahn) CCA
Alternate
Don’t Look Up (Hank Corwin) ACE
Potential Surprise
Summer of Soul (Joshua L. Pearson) BAFTA, LAFCA
Shoulda Been a Contender
King Richard (Pamela Martin) ACE
*BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING*
Projected Nominees
Dune BAFTA, CCA, MUHS
Cruella BAFTA, CCA, MUHS
The Eyes of Tammy Faye BAFTA, CCA, MUHS
House of Gucci BAFTA, CCA, MUHS
West Side Story MUHS
Alternate
No Time to Die MUHS
Potential Surprise
Nightmare Alley CCA
Shoulda Been a Contender
Last Night in Soho
*BEST ORIGINAL SCORE*
Projected Nominees
Dune (Hans Zimmer) BAFTA, CCA, HFPA, HMMA, SCL
The Power of the Dog (Jonny Greenwood) BAFTA, CCA, HFPA, HMMA, SCL
The French Dispatch (Alexandre Desplat) BAFTA, HFPA, HMMA, SCL
Don’t Look Up (Nicholas Britell) BAFTA, CCA, HMMA, SCL
Parallel Mothers (Alberto Iglesias) HFPA, HMMA, LAFCA, SCL
Alternate
No Time to Die (Hans Zimmer) HMMA
Potential Surprise
King Richard (Kris Bowers) HMMA
Shoulda Been a Contender
The Harder They Fall (Jeymes Samuel)
*BEST ORIGINAL SONG*
Projected Nominees
“No Time to Die” — Billie Eilish & Finneas O’Connell (No Time to Die) — podcast CCA, HFPA, HMMA, SCL
“Just Look Up” — Nicholas Britell, Ariana Grande, Scott Mescudi [Kid Cudi] & Taura Stinson (Don’t Look Up) CCA, HMMA, SCL
“Beyond the Shore” — Nicholai Baxter, Matt Dahan, Sian Heder & Marius de Vries (CODA) HMMA
“Be Alive” — Beyoncé Knowles-Carter & Darius Scott (King Richard) CCA, HFPA, HMMA
“Your Song Saved My Life” — Bono, The Edge, Adam Clayton, Larry Mullen Jr. (Sing 2) — podcast [Bono & The Edge] HMMA
Alternate
“So May We Start” — Ron Mael & Russell Mael (Annette)
Potential Surprise
“Automatic Woman” — H.E.R., Van Hunt & Starrah (Bruised) — podcast
Shoulda Been a Contender
“We Don’t Talk About Bruno” — Lin-Manuel Miranda (Encanto)
*BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN*
Projected Nominees
Dune (Zsuzsanna Sipos & Patrice Vermette) ADG, BAFTA, CCA
West Side Story (Rena DeAngelo & Adam Stockhausen) ADG, BAFTA, CCA
The French Dispatch (Rena DeAngelo & Adam Stockhausen) ADG, BAFTA, CCA
Nightmare Alley (Tamara Deverell & Shane Vieau) ADG, BAFTA, CCA
Belfast (Jim Clay & Claire Nina Richards) CCA
Alternate
No Time to Die (Dennis Gassner & Mark Tildesley) ADG
Potential Surprise
Cruella (Fiona Crumbie & Alice Felton) ADG
Shoulda Been a Contender
Last Night in Soho (Victoria Allwood, Judy Farr & Emily Norris)
*BEST SOUND*
Projected Nominees
Dune BAFTA, CAS, MPSE
No Time to Die BAFTA, CAS, MPSE
West Side Story BAFTA, CAS, MPSE
Spider-Man: No Way Home CAS, MPSE
Tick, Tick … Boom! MPSE
Alternate
The Power of the Dog CAS, MPSE
Potential Surprise
Belfast MPSE
Shoulda Been a Contender
The Last Duel
*BEST VISUAL EFFECTS*
Projected Nominees
Dune BAFTA, CCA, VES
No Time to Die BAFTA, CCA
The Matrix Resurrections BAFTA, CCA, VES
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings CCA, VES
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Alternate
Godzilla vs. Kong VES
Potential Surprise
Eternals
Shoulda Been a Contender
Don’t Look Up
*BEST ANIMATED SHORT*
Projected Nominees
The Windshield Wiper
Namoo
Us Again
Bestia ANN
Step Into the River
Alternate
Robin Robin
Potential Surprise
The Musician
*BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT*
Projected Nominees
Day of Rage
Three Songs for Benazir
Coded: The Hidden Love of J.C. Leyendecker
águilas
The Queen of Basketball
Alternate
Lynching Postcards: “Token of a Great Day”
Potential Surprise
When We Were Bullies
*BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT*
Projected Nominees
The Long Goodbye
Frimas
Please Hold
When the Sun Sets
Tala’vision
Alternate
The Criminals
Potential Surprise
Censor of Dreams
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