Grammy predictions update: 3-way tie for Album of the Year after end of eligibility period

Daniel Montgomery
·3 min read
5

August 30 marked the end of Grammys eligibility, so all the music that will be eligible for awards has already been released. Where, then, do our Grammy predictions stand for Album of the Year? More than 2,000 music fans have placed their bets here in our predictions center. Those bets have been combined to generate our official racetrack odds. And the top category doesn’t get much closer than this.

SEEChappell Roan’s ‘The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess’ skyrockets in Grammy odds for Album of the Year

Taylor Swift is the current front-runner for “The Tortured Poets Department,” followed by Beyonce in second place with “Cowboy Carter” and Billie Eilish in third with “Hit Me Hard and Soft.” But it’s so close between the three leaders that they’re pretty much dead even, all with 11/2 odds. We know how much the Grammys adore all three of these women. Swift has won Album of the Year a record four times (including just this past year for “Midnights”). Beyonce is the most awarded individual in history with 32 career trophies. And Eilish has won Album of the Year as well as two statues apiece for Record of the Year and Song of the Year.

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Swift may be disadvantaged, though, by the fact that she literally just won, and despite “Tortured Poets” becoming her longest-running number-one album ever, its reviews were less enthusiastic than she received for her last two AOTY champs “Midnights” or “Folklore.” Meanwhile, Beyonce has been afflicted by a strange bias: she wins constantly in genre categories, but voters have never liked her enough to give her the top prize despite adoring reviews and consistent commercial success. As for Eilish, “Hit Me Hard and Soft” has achieved some of her best reviews and best commercial figures, but it hasn’t quite grabbed hold of pop culture the way her winning album “When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?” did.

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So I’d watch out for Chappell Roan‘s “The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess,” which has been a pop culture phenomenon in 2024 — or a “Femininomenon,” as she might say. She ranks fourth in our AOTY odds. The critically acclaimed “Only God Was Above Us” by previous AOTY nominees Vampire Weekend follows at number-five. Ariana Grande‘s “Eternal Sunshine” is at number-six. Charli XCX‘s summer smash “Brat” is placed seventh. And rounding out our predictions for AOTY nominations is past winner Kacey Musgraves with “Deeper Well.”

So while Swift’s “Tortured Poets” is ostensibly out front, I don’t think there is any one clear favorite in this year’s race, which could swing any number of ways. That will only increase your bragging rights if you’re the one who gets it correct. Make or update your predictions here.

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