Jodie Foster (‘True Detective’) still leads Emmy odds in tough race against Brie Larson and Juno Temple
Jodie Foster has been the Emmy front-runner for Best Movie/Limited Actress all season for her role in “True Detective: Night Country.” That hasn’t changed in the week leading up to the Emmy telecast on September 15, but she faces a tough challenge, especially from Brie Larson (“Lessons in Chemistry”) and Juno Temple (“Fargo”).
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“True Detective: Night Country” has the advantage of being the most nominated limited series of the year with 19 bids. That includes supporting acting citations for John Hawkes and Kali Reis in addition to Foster’s leading nom, so we know her fellow actors in the television academy are fans of the project. Currently predicting her to win are 15 out of 17 Expert journalists we’ve surveyed from major media outlets, eight out of 11 Gold Derby Editors, 20 of our Top 24 Users and 21 of our All-Star Top 24.
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That’s a decisive advantage, but Foster may be more vulnerable than her odds would suggest. “True Detective,” for instance, didn’t win any Emmys at the Creative Arts Awards despite 13 nominations there. In fact, none of the five shows represented in Best Movie/Limited Actress did all that well over the weekend, which makes it especially difficult to figure out which of these actresses might have garnered the most support from voters.
But “Lessons in Chemistry” did win an Emmy, for its music composition. That might not tell us much about Larson in the Best Actress race, but it’s still more academy support than we saw for “True Detective.” Currently betting on Larson are one Expert, two Editors and one Top User.
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As for Temple, she just won the Gold Derby TV Award for “Fargo,” and our last four winners in this category also took home Emmys. Unfortunately, like “True Detective,” “Fargo” was blanked at the Creative Arts Awards. But nevertheless, the show’s leading lady is backed by one Expert, one Editor, two Top Users and one All-Star.
None of our elite pundits are picking the last two nominees, but even still we can’t rule them out. Sofia Vergara (“Griselda”) was a multiple Emmy nominee for “Modern Family” and showed her range here in a rare dramatic performance. And Naomi Watts (“Feud: Capote vs. The Swans”) is nominated for a Ryan Murphy production (those are quite popular with voters) that earned nominations in all four acting categories, showing its popularity with that branch of academy members. Vergara and Watts also play biographical roles; that never hurts with awards voters.
So yes, Jodie Foster is the likeliest winner, but she may not be as far out front as you think. Be prepared for an upset.
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