How Kieran Culkin could end this 12-year Oscar streak
For the past dozen years, the eventual Oscar winner for Best Supporting Actor has hailed from a Best Picture nominee. But that streak could finally end this year, based on Gold Derby’s predictions.
Kieran Culkin is the odds-on frontrunner to win Best Supporting Actor for his performance in A Real Pain. He plays Benjamin “Benji” Kaplan, who embarks on a roadtrip through Poland with his cousin, David Kaplan (Jesse Eisenberg), following the death of their grandmother. The Searchlight Pictures film also received a Best Original Screenplay nomination for Eisenberg, who directed, wrote, produced, and starred in the project, but it was snubbed in Best Picture.
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Culkin has dominated the precursor awards and should he prevail at the Oscars, he would end a 12-year streak that began after Christopher Plummer won for Beginners (2011). Plummer notably claimed this award at age 82, making him the oldest acting winner at that time (an 83-year-old Anthony Hopkins later beat that record when he won Best Actor for 2020’s The Father). Beginners received no other Oscar nominations.
Here are the 12 most recent Best Supporting Actor champions, who all appeared in Best Picture nominees (or winners, denoted with √):
Christoph Waltz for Django Unchained (2012)
Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club (2013)
J. K. Simmons for Whiplash (2014)
Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies (2015)
Mahershala Ali for Moonlight √ (2016)
Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (2017)
Mahershala Ali for Green Book √ (2018)
Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (2019)
Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah (2020)
Troy Kotsur for CODA √ (2021)
Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All at Once √ (2022)
Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer √ (2023)
SEE 2025 Oscars calendar update
With Culkin being the overwhelming favorite to win for A Real Pain, according to Gold Derby’s experts, editors, and users, his fellow nominees are ranked as follows: Guy Pearce for The Brutalist, Edward Norton for A Complete Unknown, Yura Borisov for Anora, and Jeremy Strong for The Apprentice. Pearce, Norton, and Borisov appear in Best Picture nominees.
Culkin has already won the Golden Globe this awards season, plus several nationwide critics’ prizes. He’s one of only 13 performers this year to receive nominations at the Oscars, BAFTAs, Critics Choice, Golden Globes, and Screen Actors Guild Awards. The others are Cynthia Erivo for Wicked, Karla Sofía Gascón for Emilia Pérez, Mikey Madison for Anora, Demi Moore for The Substance, Adrien Brody for The Brutalist, Timothée Chalamet for A Complete Unknown, Colman Domingo for Sing Sing, Ralph Fiennes for Conclave, Ariana Grande for Wicked, Zoe Salda?a for Emilia Pérez, Yura Borisov for Anora, and Edward Norton for A Complete Unknown.
At the Globes podium, the 42-year-old actor joked about doing a “shot of tequila with Mario Lopez,” a comment that was later referenced in a comedy bit by host Nikki Glaser. “I love the Golden Globes,” Culkin continued. “The first ever acknowledgment I got as an actor was a Golden Globe nomination when I was basically a kid. And that meant a lot, so this has a special place. I’m here because Jesse Eisenberg wrote an incredible script, he’s a fantastic director and scene partner, so anybody that has an opportunity to work with him in any category, just leap at it.”
As for the other three acting categories, the last performers to win Oscars without corresponding Best Picture nominations were: Brendan Fraser for The Whale (2022) in Best Actor, Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye (2021) in Best Actress, and Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk (2018) in Best Supporting Actress.
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