Odds say Charli XCX’s ‘Brat’ summer will lead to Grammy winter

Charli XCX‘s has achieved success and captured the zeitgeist like never before in her career. Her latest album “Brat” has launched memes and even become a talking point in the 2024 US presidential election. It debuted with career-best commercial numbers for the singer, and after 11 weeks it’s still in the top 10 on the Billboard 200. Now she appears to be a likely Grammy nominee for Album of the Year.

SEECritics adore Charli XCX’s new album ‘Brat’: Will this be her Grammy era?

As of this writing “Brat” ranks seventh for Album of the Year with 16/1 odds based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users. There are eight nomination slots available, so her chances are good of making the cut. And she has gradually been climbing as “Brat” summer has saturated pop culture. Last week on August 21 the album was in ninth place with 25/1 odds, putting it just outside of nomination position. The week before, on August 14, it was 10th with 28/1 odds. And on August 7 it was 11th with 30/1 odds.

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This would be a major breakthrough for Charli XCX. Although this is her sixth studio album, she has never been nominated at the Grammys as a lead artist. Her only two noms to date came in 2015: Record of the Year and Best Pop Duo/Group Performance as a featured artist on Iggy Azalea‘s “Fancy,” a hit that became the song of the summer in 2014, so summer has proved to be a lucky time of year for the artist. But they lost Record of the Year to Sam Smith‘s “Stay with Me” and Pop Duo/Group to A Great Big World and Christina Aguilera‘s “Say Something.”

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What are her chances of winning for “Brat,” though? In Album of the Year, the current front-runners have proven track records. Taylor Swift still leads the way with “The Tortured Poets Department,” which would be her record-extending fifth winner in the category. Then there’s long-overdue Beyonce with “Cowboy Carter,” who has four previous nominations in the category. Billie Eilish is beloved by the recording academy with a previous win for “When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?” and another nomination for “Happier Than Ever”; her latest, “Hit Me Hard and Soft,” is her most critically acclaimed release yet, so another nom seems highly likely. And Chappell Roan is enjoying a pretty hot summer of her own with “The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess.”

Charli’s best chances may be in genre categories, perhaps in Best Dance Pop Recording or Best Dance/Electronic Album (or Best Pop Vocal Album, depending on how “Brat” is categorized for awards purposes). She could actually win Pop Vocal Album even if someone else in her category wins Album of the Year: she would follow in the footsteps of Dua Lipa, who prevailed for her critically hailed dance album “Future Nostalgia” in 2021 even though Swift’s “Folklore” won the top prize of the night. Or who knows, maybe “Brat” summer will give way to “Brat” fall and “Brat” winner, leading her to win everything in sight.

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