Oscar shockers looming? 3 takeaways from the Critics Choice Awards.
When it comes to Oscar prognosticating, it’s never a good idea to put too much stock in a non-industry event like the Critics Choice Awards. But Friday night’s ceremony — where seven different films won above-the-line awards, and Best Picture choice Anora received only a single prize (it just so happened to be the biggest and most important) — was illustrative of an awards race without a genuine frontrunner. Ahead are the three biggest takeaways from the 2025 Critics Choice Awards
Emilia Pérez is more than just Karla Sofía Gascón’s offensive social media posts
Few, if any, awards season controversies in recent history have felt as significant and sticky as Emilia Pérez star Karla Sofía Gascón’s inflammatory social media posts — mainly because Gascón herself refused to step away from the outrage and apologize. It got so contentious over the last seven days that not only did Netflix sideline the Best Actress nominee (Gascón was supposed to be in Los Angeles right now for several key awards season events, including the Critics Choice Awards), but Gascón’s own director said he wanted nothing to do with her. “I haven’t spoken to her, and I don’t want to,” filmmaker Jacques Audiard told Deadline this week. (In response to the Audiard interview, Gascón wrote on Instagram that she had decided to “let the work talk for itself, hoping my silence will allow the film to be appreciated for what it is.”)
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So while Critics Choice Awards voting ended on Jan. 10, weeks before Gascón’s bigoted social media rhetoric severely impacted Emilia Pérez and its Oscar Best Picture hopes, Friday’s three Critics Choice wins — including Best Supporting Actress for Oscar frontrunner Zoe Salda?a, plus Best Song and Best Foreign Language Film — felt like a righting of the ship for the embattled feature. Critics Choice Awards attendees responded positively in the room to the wins, especially for Salda?a. After Friday night’s victory and her speech — where the veteran star got emotional while speaking about Emilia Pérez’s impact on viewers — it feels like Salda?a might sweep the remaining precursors en route to an Academy Award.
The Substance is in play for Best Original Screenplay
To be clear, The Substance has been in play for Best Original Screenplay since the Oscar nominations were announced, and Coralie Fargeat was among the writing nominees. But for our purposes of speculating and predicting, it did feel significant that Fargeat won Best Original Screenplay at the Critics Choice Awards over Sean Baker for Anora, the expected winner. At the Oscars, Best Original Screenplay often goes to the most “original” work or the “cool” project. Recent winners that would fall under one or both honorifics include Anatomy of a Fall, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Promising Young Woman, Parasite, Get Out, and Her. So, while Anora would undoubtedly qualify, Fargeat may have an edge for The Substance — especially with Demi Moore and the film’s makeup so far ahead in those respective Oscar categories. That’s how the Critics Choice Awards saw it, at least, bestowing the auteur with the writing award rather than a directing honor. Baker is the odds-on choice to win at the Writers Guild Awards — where Fargeat wasn’t nominated because of the guild’s eligibility rules. So keep an eye on the BAFTA Awards results later this month, where Baker and Fargeat will meet again in the original screenplay category.
Maybe Anora is a consensus movie
Again, the Critics Choice Association is not an industry group, and it remains to be seen how Anora will fare against its fellow Best Picture nominees on a ranked-choice ballot at the Producers Guild Awards on Saturday night. Plus, since its debut at last year’s Cannes Film Festival, Anora has been considered a critical favorite, and it leads all films with Best Picture precursor wins thus far with 20 — including the Palme d’Or at Cannes and Best Picture from the Los Angeles Film Critics Association. With that context, its win on Friday night is less shocking than it initially appeared. Yet the Critics Choice win was significant, especially after Anora got blanked at the Golden Globes. To be clear, the movie never felt out of the race because of how it has performed since the Globes shutout. Despite featuring a cast of actors mainly unknown to mainstream audiences, it landed among the Screen Actors Guild Awards Best Ensemble nominees. At the Oscars, Anora maxed out, hitting every category it was predicted to be nominated. Ditto the BAFTA Awards, where Anora also received a nomination for Baker’s casting. So, in a tight Best Picture race where the presumed passion pick in Emilia Pérez has been dinged by controversy, does Anora — a movie that is clearly liked by industry and non-industry viewers alike — emerge as a consensus pick over more traditional picks like Wicked or A Complete Unknown? If it wins the PGA, expect the drumbeat to grow louder.
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