The Oscar Trump Effect: How the Academy Could Reflect Our Turbulent Times
Will the Oscars reflect who won the presidency?
As the country recovers from the emotional rollercoaster of the 2024 presidential election, Hollywood will be coping with this charged political atmosphere at events throughout awards season. And that could determine the movies that Oscar voters choose to elevate. After all, the Academy Awards have a long history of reflecting or commenting on the nation’s political zeitgeist, sometimes defiant, other times conciliatory.
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In 2016, the Academy’s selection of “Moonlight” over the presumed frontrunner, “La La Land,” was widely seen as a symbolic rejection of the divisive rhetoric that defined Donald Trump’s win. “Moonlight,” a poignant exploration of a young Black man’s sexuality, stood in stark contrast to Trump’s controversial policies. His Muslim ban would be rebutted by two other honors bestowed in that year’s ceremony: Mahershala Ali’s historic win as the first Muslim to take home a supporting actor Oscar, and Iran’s “The Salesman,” which took home international feature.
Fast-forward to the present: Trump’s return to the Oval Office will arrive just as Oscar balloting is underway. That means voters have a chance to voice the artistic community’s response to his political resurrection — or at least set a tone. How will Hollywood creatives weigh in on a historical moment defined by clashing ideals?
Several contenders may connect with a spectrum of liberal Oscar voters. Jacques Audiard’s “Emilia Perez,” which stars transgender actor Karla Sofia Gascón, could send a resounding message of inclusion in light of the cultural debate over trans rights. The Netflix documentary “Will & Harper” from Josh Greenbaum,” which centers on a road trip taken by Will Ferrell and Harper Steele after the completion of her gender transition, may be similarly embraced.
Jon M. Chu’s “Wicked,” featuring powerhouse performances by Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, celebrates inclusivity with its themes of empathy and individuality. The movie’s rapturous reception suggests it may become a rallying point for liberal audiences and critics alike, especially as it is poised to debut to $100 million or more.
It will also benefit from strong reviews, with “Wicked” currently at 92% “fresh” on Rotten Tomatoes. Given the response, I believe that the big-budget adaptation of the stage musical might have the goods to go the distance. Could this race turn into a musical showdown? Not so fast.
Brady Corbet’s “The Brutalist,” a historical drama tackling antisemitism and artistic resilience, enters the conversation with themes that will be resonant given all the current geopolitical turbulence. The drama’s narrative may appeal to voters seeking a story of perseverance. “Anora,” a film about a sex worker’s romance with a Russian oligarch’s son, features a striking performance by Mikey Madison; the comedic thriller could draw support from voters advocating more narratives centering on women.
Of course, Oscar voters are not immune to America’s political divide. Some likely sympathize with Donald Trump’s hateful worldview. Historical precedent suggests that the Oscars can reflect the nation’s collective anxieties amid divisive elections or offer an escape.
In 2000, following a razor-thin election margin between George W. Bush’s victory over Al Gore, the Academy awarded “Gladiator” best picture over more complex, introspective films like “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” and “Traffic.” Some argued that Hollywood chose a straightforward tale of revenge and triumph to seek a middle ground in a polarized time.
What if Ridley Scott’s epic sequel to “Gladiator” experiences a similar outcome, perhaps even echoing the populist spirit that made “Top Gun: Maverick” a sensation? The sequel could resonate as a call back to a traditional, more universally accepted era of Hollywood.
James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic, “A Complete Unknown,” which just debuted in front of AMPAS and industry voters on Wednesday night, might also appeal to those nostalgic for a bygone era, tapping into the themes of individualism that Dylan’s music represented for many Americans.
This trend is not new. In 1980, when Ronald Reagan defeated incumbent Jimmy Carter, the deeply emotional family drama “Ordinary People” won over contenders like “Raging Bull” and “The Elephant Man.” Likewise, in 1984, Reagan’s reelection coincided with a win for “Amadeus,” a period biopic with broad appeal, as the Cold War simmered.
Even global events can shift Oscar outcomes outside of elections. That may have impacted “CODA,” which won the top prize soon after the outbreak of the Ukraine war, or John Ford’s “How Green Was My Valley,” which was honored in 1941 in the shadow of Pearl Harbor. With conflicts persisting in the Middle East and Ukraine today, the Oscars may lean toward narratives of survival or escapism, depending on which sentiments dominate the voting body’s mood in mid-January when nomination voting opens or in February when they’re selecting winners.
Whatever films emerge as winners, they’ll be a snapshot of America in 2025 — its divisions, aspirations, fears and hopes. For all the glamour, the Oscars remain a cultural mirror, reflecting a world that continues to wrestle with its ever-changing identity.
Below are this week’s Oscar predictions (in alphabetical order) in all 23 categories.
Oscars Predictions Tracking
(Nov. 21, 2024)
Best Picture
“Anora”
“Blitz”
“The Brutalist”
“A Complete Unknown”
“Conclave”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Gladiator II”
“The Room Next Door”
“Wicked”
Director
Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”
Sean Baker, “Anora”
Edward Berger, “Conclave”
Jon M. Chu, “Wicked”
Ridley Scott, “Gladiator II”
Actor
Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”
Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”
Paul Mescal, “Gladiator II”
Actress
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”
Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”
Marianne Jean-Baptiste, “Hard Truths”
Angelina Jolie, “Maria”
Mikey Madison, “Anora”
Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov, “Anora”
Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Clarence Maclin, “Sing Sing”
Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”
Denzel Washington, “Gladiator II”
Supporting Actress
Monica Barbaro, “A Complete Unknown”
Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
Saoirse Ronan, “Blitz”
Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”
Zoe Salda?a, “Emilia Pérez”
Original Screenplay
“Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“Hard Truths”
“A Real Pain”
“September 5”
Adapted Screenplay
“Conclave”
“Emilia Pérez”
“The Room Next Door”
“Sing Sing”
“Wicked”
Animated Feature
“Flow”
“Inside Out 2”
“Memoir of a Snail”
“Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl”
“The Wild Robot”
Production Design
“A Complete Unknown”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Gladiator II”
“Nosferatu”
“Wicked”
Cinematography
“The Brutalist”
“Conclave”
“Maria”
“Nosferatu”
“Wicked”
Costume Design
“Blitz”
“A Complete Unknown”
“Gladiator II”
“Nosferatu”
“Wicked”
Film Editing
“Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Wicked”
Makeup and Hairstyling
“Beetlejuice Beetlejuice”
“A Different Man”
“Dune: Part Two”
“The Substance”
“Wicked”
Sound
“Blitz”
“A Complete Unknown”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Gladiator II”
“Wicked”
Visual Effects
“Dune: Part Two”
“Gladiator II”
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”
“Mufasa: The Lion King”
“Wicked”
Original Score
“The Brutalist”
“Conclave”
“The Room Next Door”
“Saturday Night”
“The Wild Robot”
Original Song
“Winter Coat” from “Blitz”
“El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez”
“The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight”
“Kiss the Sky” from “The Wild Robot”
“Harper and Will Go West” from “Will & Harper”
Documentary Feature
“Dahomey”
“Daughters”
“No Other Land”
“Sugarcane”
“Will & Harper”
International Feature
“Dahomey” from Senegal
“Emilia Pérez” from France
“I’m Still Here” from Brazil
“Kneecap” from Ireland”
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” from Germany
Animated Short
“An Almost Christmas Story”
“Back to Normal”
“Humantis”
“Remember Us”
“Silent Panorama”
Documentary Short
“I Am Ready, Warden”
“Julia’s Stepping Stones”
“Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World”
“Motorcycle Mary”
“A Swim Lesson”
Live Action Short
“Dovecote”
“The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent”
“Motherland”
“Ripe!”
“Room Taken”
“Wicked” — 12
“Emilia Pérez” — 10
“Gladiator II” — 8
“The Brutalist” and “Conclave” — 7
“Anora,” “Blitz” and “Dune: Part Two” — 6
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