Oscars Best Actress breakdown: Why Demi Moore is still the frontrunner in the final days
Originally published Feb. 6, 2025, at 11:30 a.m. PT; updated Feb. 24, 2025, at 4:10 p.m. PT
The Oscars race for Best Actress was wholly reset at the Golden Globes when self-described "popcorn actress" Demi Moore (The Substance) prevailed and delivered a speech that was award-worthy in its own right. Suddenly, there was a new Oscar frontrunner. But then Mikey Madison (Anora) fought back at BAFTA, beating the odds to claim a come-from-behind victory. Let's break down this year's Best Actress category, which also includes their fellow nominees Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez), and Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here).
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Frontrunner: Demi Moore
Moore's shocking victory at the Globes helped catapult her to the top of Gold Derby's Oscar odds for the first time, surpassing Madison, who had been the favorite to win since September. Not only was Moore's Golden Globe speech powerful in the moment, it also spoke more widely to the industry about how some performers are put in certain boxes (i.e., box-office stars vs. acclaimed awards winner), and have a tough time breaking out. "I've been doing this a long time, like over 45 years, and this is the first time I've ever won anything as an actor" Moore began. "Thirty years ago, I had a producer tell me that I was a popcorn actress, and at that time, I made that mean that this wasn't something that I was allowed to have."
Moore added the Critics Choice Award to her mantel on Feb. 7, making it two-for-two for the televised precursors. In her speech, she name-dropped all of her co-nominees, including Gascón, who was sitting out the rest of awards season in the wake of her offensive social media posts resurfacing. Finally, on Feb. 23, Moore scooped up the SAG Award and recalled the early days of her career when she received her guild card. "It was in 1978. I was 15, almost 16. And it changed my life because it gave me meaning, it gave me purpose, and it gave me direction," she told her fellow actors.
In The Substance, Moore plays an aging movie star who goes to extreme lengths to stay young — another topic that hits close to home to veteran actors in Tinseltown. Coralie Fargeat's body-horror film over-performed at the Oscars with five nominations for picture, director, actress, original screenplay, and makeup and hairstyling. And while awards shows often ignore the genre, the Oscars have honored spooky Best Actress performances before, from the likes of Kathy Bates for Misery (1990), Jodie Foster for The Silence of the Lambs (1991), and Natalie Portman for Black Swan (2010). That's all excellent news for Moore, who's hoping to ride her comeback narrative all the way to the Oscars on March 2.
Potential spoiler: Mikey Madison
For playing the titular Brooklyn sex worker who marries into the wrong family, the 25-year-old Madison possesses the ingénue narrative that some are comparing to Audrey Hepburn, who won for Roman Holiday (1953) at age 24. Even though Madison has accrued all of the pivotal precursor noms, losing at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and SAG Awards to Moore significantly diminishes Madison's Oscar chances.
However, it's far from the end of Madison's journey. Frances McDormand for Nomadland (2020) recently won the Best Actress Oscar after being bested at the Globes, Critics Choice, and SAG. McDormand staged her comeback narrative at BAFTA, which is exactly what Madison did on Feb. 16 when she won the British prize over frontrunner Moore.
Madison has declared on the campaign trail that she hopes Anora shines a spotlight on sex work, a taboo subject for many people. But not Oscar voters. Last year, a similarly pearl-clutching film, Poor Things, sailed through the 96th Academy Awards by winning four trophies, including Best Actress for Emma Stone. Anora's central themes of class exploitation and haves vs. have-nots were strong enough to work for Parasite just five years ago, so time will tell if Academy members will embrace those same ideas today, as told through the eyes of a 20-something sex worker.
Underdog: Fernanda Torres
Like Moore, Torres experienced an Oscar boost following her win at the Golden Globes for playing activist Eunice Paiva in Walter Salles' Brazilian political thriller I'm Still Here. Torres dedicated her win to her mother, Fernanda Montenegro, who costars in this movie and earned a Best Actress Oscar bid for Central Station (1998). "This is proof that art can endure through life, even in difficult moments like this," an emotional Torres stated at the podium as Oscar pundits everywhere started feverishly updating their Best Actress picks. One caveat with Torres' Globes victory is that she defeated four actresses in the drama category who were all later snubbed at the Oscars, so she has yet to face off against Moore, Madison, Erivo, or Gascón.
Academy members, particularly those within the international branch, loved Torres' performance so much that they also anointed I'm Still Here with a surprise Best Picture nomination, in addition to its expected showing in Best International Film. Torres is an undeniable passion for social media users, which comes with its pros and cons. Pro: they will help keep her name in the headlines in the coming weeks, as she won't be getting any more attention at precursors like Critics Choice, SAG, and BAFTA, which all snubbed her. Con: After a controversial comedy sketch from 17 years ago in which Torres appeared in blackface resurfaced online, the actress apologized. Still, many quickly forgot that outrage after Gascón's unprecedented scandal and subsequent attempts at apologies.
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