Oscars Best Adapted Screenplay breakdown: ‘Conclave’ is the heavy favorite after BAFTA, Critics Choice, USC Scripter wins
Best Director gets more attention at the Oscars, but this millennium has shown the writing categories are potentially more important. In the past 15 years Argo (2012), Green Book (2018), and CODA (2021) won Best Picture without directing noms — but no film since Titanic (1997) has won without a writing nom. That could be good news for many of this year's nominees for Best Adapted Screenplay. Four of the five are also up for the top prize. Here is our breakdown of the race as it stands today.
SEEHow Kieran Culkin could end this 12-year Oscar streak
Frontrunner: Conclave, by Peter Straughan
Only one film in this category earned writing nominations from the BAFTAs, Critics Choice Awards, USC Scripter Awards, and Golden Globes, and Conclave is it. (The Writers Guild didn't nominate it, but that's because it wasn't eligible there.) The screenplay also managed to win all of those awards, including the Golden Globe, which was a shared category with original screenplay contenders. That means Conclave not only beat its Oscar adapted screenplay rival Emilia Pérez but also the original script for The Brutalist. Conclave lost Best Film Drama to The Brutalist at night's end, making Straughan's win there even more monumental.
More from GoldDerby
Conclave stands out as one of the most literary films nominated. Adapted from a 2016 novel by Robert Harris, it excels through its dialogue and plot twists. In contrast, musical elements highlight the other nominated films, Emilia Pérez and A Complete Unknown. The remaining nominees underperformed in the nominations: Sing Sing missed out on a bid for Best Picture, while Nickel Boys received recognition only in that category.
But Conclave still isn't unbeatable. It was snubbed for Best Director, which might signal its vulnerability, at least with that branch of the Academy. Also, for the last six years, Best Adapted Screenplay has gone to the film's director; Conclave is the only adapted script in this category that the director didn't cowrite.
SIGN UPfor Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest predictions
Potential spoiler: A Complete Unknown, by Jay Cocks and James Mangold
This film about the early career of Bob Dylan (played by Timothée Chalamet), based on Elijah Wald's book Dylan Goes Electric!, has only been getting stronger as the season has progressed. It picked up a trio of noms at the Golden Globes: Best Film Drama, plus acting bids for Chalamet and Edward Norton as fellow folk legend Pete Seeger. It also received three Critics Choice nominations, including Best Picture and the same two acting nominations. Then things started to accelerate: four SAG Award nominations, adding Monica Barbaro's performance as Joan Baez to the list of recognized achievements. BAFTA gave the film six nominations, including recognition for Cocks and Mangold's screenplay. The Writers Guild and USC Scripter Awards also nominated the screenplay. And the Oscars ultimately gave the film eight bids, including writing. The further into the season we get, the more adulation the film gets.
Cocks and Mangold are also industry veterans who may be seen as overdue for their flowers. Mangold has five career nominations (including three this year for writing, directing, and producing), and he's been helming Oscar contenders going back to Girl, Interrupted (1999). But he didn't get his first nomination until Logan (2017), for which he was nominated in this category. Then came a Best Picture bid for Ford v Ferrari (2019). Now, the stars have aligned for him across the board. Meanwhile, Cocks is a three-time nominee whose previous bids were for his Martin Scorsese collabs The Age of Innocence (1993) and Gangs of New York (2002).
But A Complete Unknown faces a hurdle: the biopic may be seen as a musical achievement more than a writing achievement. The film is chockablock with Dylan song performances, which showcase Chalamet's commitment to accurately portraying the singer's musicianship, the sound design, and Mangold's direction — all nominated for Oscars. So unless voters are dead set on specifically giving Mangold and Cocks their due as writers for their accomplished careers, they may prefer to honor this film elsewhere.
Underdog: Nickel Boys, by RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes
An underdog to be sure, but this one might bite. This film about a segregated Florida reform school, based on Colson Whitehead's novel, had critics on its side. Its screenplay won awards from Boston, Toronto, Indiana, and Chicago journalists, and the film as a whole was chosen as Best Picture by the National Society of Film Critics. And while the film struggled to gain traction within the industry, it still won the Directors Guild Award for Best First-Time Feature and the Writers Guild Award for Best Adapted Screenplay (where, as mentioned above, it didn't have to face Conclave). Ultimately it ended up with just two nominations: Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay.
Doesn't that sound familiar, though? Women Talking earned the exact same two nominations two years ago, but still managed to win Best Adapted Screenplay. Coincidentally, it was also nominated against an Edward Berger film that had many more nominations and a BAFTA for Best Picture in its back pocket: All Quiet on the Western Front. The advantage of having just one other nomination besides Best Picture is that it may concentrate the support of the film's fans within the Academy, who had no where else to go if they wanted to acknowledge the film. And it could be a consolation prize for RaMell Ross' cumulative achievement as a writer and director, just as it was for Women Talking writer-director Sarah Polley.
Best of GoldDerby
Sign up for Gold Derby's Newsletter. For the latest news, follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.
Solve the daily Crossword
