Oscars Best Supporting Actor breakdown: Why Kieran Culkin is coasting to victory
Originally published Feb. 8, 2025 at 11:30 a.m. PT; updated Feb. 23, 2025 at 9 p.m. PT
The Oscars race for Best Supporting Actor has lacked the drama of other categories this year — so it's fitting that the clear favorite is nominated for his role in a comedy. A Real Pain star Kieran Culkin leads Gold Derby's odds to take home the statuette on March 2 — and it doesn't look like Yura Borisov (Anora), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), or Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) can do anything about it. But who has the best shot at pulling off the upset? Let's break down the category.
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Frontrunner: Kieran Culkin
In A Real Pain, Culkin plays Benji, an obnoxious yet charming drifter who accompanies his cousin, David (Jesse Eisenberg), on a tour through Poland to honor their late grandmother. Two years after his Emmy win for Succession, nearly every Oscar expert predicts Culkin will be taking home the Academy Award next. The former child star (who made his acting debut in Home Alone opposite brother Macaulay Culkin) swept the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA and SAG Awards. It now looks as though he'll sail through the rest of awards season, ultimately becoming the first Best Supporting Actor winner who doesn't star in a Best Picture nominee since Christopher Plummer won for Beginners in 2012.
Despite A Real Pain's absence in the Best Picture lineup, the film has been generally well-received by the industry and secured a Best Original Screenplay nomination for Eisenberg. Academy members who love the film may feel this is the only place they can reward it. He's also not lacking screen time, with some pundits arguing he's the co-lead of the film. Culkin is one of just three nominees in his category to hit every precursor (Borisov and Norton are the others), but he's already proven to be a winner at all of them — and arguably delivers a more emotional performance throughout the entirety of his film. His witty, self-deprecating acceptance speech at the Globes didn't hurt — similar to last year's champ, Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer). There seems to be no chance of stopping Culkin this year.
Potential spoiler: Edward Norton
If anyone can claim the "overdue actor" narrative this awards season it's Edward Norton — a four-time Oscar nominee who has yet to prevail. In A Complete Unknown he portrays folk singer Pete Seeger, a music legend and mentor to Bob Dylan (Timothée Chalamet). Like Chalamet, Norton performs his own songs in the movie and mastered the banjo in Seeger's unique style. Academy members may take this opportunity to finally give the 55-year-old actor his due. He was previously nominated for Primal Fear (1997), American History X (1999), and Birdman (2015). Voters clearly like Norton, but are they ready to love him?
Another factor working in Norton's favor is the momentum of A Complete Unknown. The film peaked at just the right moment — and even secured surprise Oscar nominations for director James Mangold and supporting actress Monica Barbaro. With eight nominations in all, A Complete Unknown has widespread support across the Academy. If there's a wave happening, Norton could follow Chalamet (who picked up the Best Actor SAG Award) to a one-two punch on Oscar night, much like Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club in 2014, and Sean Penn and Tim Robbins for Mystic River in 2004.
Underdog: Guy Pearce
In The Brutalist, Guy Pearce plays Harrison Lee Van Buren, a wealthy, snobbish industrialist who becomes architect László Tóth's (Adrien Brody) most important client. Like Norton, Pearce could benefit from the "overdue" narrative, but although the 57-year-old actor is respected, this is his first Oscar nomination. Working more in his favor is having a substantial role in a Best Picture contender. The Brutalist received a total of 10 Oscar nominations, trailing only Emilia Pérez, which has no dog in this fight. The last three Best Supporting Actor winners were all in that year's Best Picture: Downey (Oppenheimer), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), and Troy Kotsur (CODA). Pearce's greatest strength is the power of his film — which will no doubt be watched by every branch in the Academy.
Pearce's biggest hurdle is overcoming his SAG Awards snub, which is the most reliable precursor to Oscar's Best Supporting Actor race. For him to turn this race around, Pearce had to (and didn't) prevail at the BAFTAs, which have become a much more reliable precursor since the Academy's expansion of international voters. Still, there have been hiccups like Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), who won the BAFTA two years ago before losing to Quan at the Oscars.
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