Oscars Best Supporting Actress breakdown: It’s still Zoe Salda?a vs. the field
Originally published Feb. 7, 2025 at 11 a.m. PT; updated Feb. 23, 2025 at 8:30 p.m. PT
Before the last week of January, and for the second year in a row, the Best Supporting Actress Oscar race did not look like a race. Zoe Salda?a was the runaway favorite in the Gold Derby odds to take home the statuette on March 2, even despite the controversy around her film, and it feels like a tall order for Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), and Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) to overtake the Emilia Pérez star. That is still the case. But who has the best shot at pulling off an upset? Let's break down the category.
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Frontrunner: Zoe Salda?a, Emilia Pérez
Ever since Emilia Pérez premiered at the Cannes Film Festival in May, Salda?a has been pegged as the one to beat in Best Supporting Actress, and nothing that's happened in the past eight and a half months has disabused that notion, even though it's felt like the opposite at specific points. Salda?a has earned glowing notices for her turn as down-on-her-luck lawyer Rita Castro, whose world gets turned upside-down when she helps a Mexican drug lord get gender-affirming surgery. This role has allowed the actress to flex some dormant muscles in film (dance, speaking her native Spanish). Her first award was Cannes' Best Actress prize, which she shared with costars Karla Sofía Gascón, Selena Gomez, and Adriana Paz. Since then, the Netflix crime musical has become the Oscar villain of the season, admonished online for its depiction of trans people and Mexico. Salda?a, specifically, was criticized by Film Twitter and awards fanatics for committing category fraud by going supporting for an ostensibly (co-)lead role (she has more screen time than Best Actress nominee Gascón).
But the feelings are not mutual with international audiences and the industry, who have widely embraced Jacques Audiard's operatic endeavor (not to mention, nearly every single awards body has been happy to oblige Salda?a's supporting campaign). Emilia Pérez netted 10 Golden Globe nominations, a record for comedy/musical films, and won four, including Best Supporting Actress for Salda?a. She's one of two supporting actress Oscar nominees to hit every televised precursor and has won the Critics Choice Award, BAFTA, and the Screen Actors Guild Award, putting her in touching distance of a full sweep. Her Oscar bid is one of the leading 13 for Emilia Pérez, a new record for a non-English language film. But Gascón's resurfaced offensive social media posts and subsequent comments could impact the film's win chances. Before the scandal, Emilia Pérez was the overwhelming favorite in three categories — Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Song for "El Mal" (Salda?a's number), and Best International Feature Film — and its best odds remain in supporting actress. It's very likely that Salda?a, who quickly condemned Gascón's posts, comes out unscathed since she has nothing to do with them, and it wouldn't be right to punish her for someone else's transgression. Critics Choice voting had closed before the scandal, but BAFTA voting was ongoing at the time and Salda?a emerged victorious with the Brits. Salda?a's also an industry vet and an established star of multiple billion-dollar-grossing franchises (she's got James Cameron's vote!). Before the controversy, this category felt as settled as last year when Da'Vine Joy Randolph swept the season for The Holdovers. Now? It might be slightly closer, but Salda?a's still way out in front.
Potential spoiler: Ariana Grande, Wicked
Grande is the other person besides Salda?a to have been nominated at every televised precursor — a sign of how chaotic the supporting actress race was in Phase 1 and how far ahead of the field Salda?a and Grande were. When Grande's casting as Glinda in Wicked was announced in 2021, some were skeptical if the Grammy winner would have the goods. These doubts mainly stemmed from folks who seemingly only knew Grande as a pop star. Still, she started her career in the Broadway musical 13 and honed her comedy chops on Nickelodeon's Victorious and Sam & Cat before segueing into music. Grande got the last laugh with her utterly delightful performance and quickly shot up the odds after Wicked's first screenings in the fall. If it weren't for Salda?a, this would likely be Grande's Oscar to lose. No category is kinder to musical performances than Best Supporting Actress, especially musical performances in IP adaptations. In this century, Catherine Zeta-Jones (Chicago), Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls), Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables), and Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) have triumphed for their scene-stealing turns backed by a signature song. Grande, who is also arguably a co-lead, would fit right in with that group if she prevailed. Wicked is, uh, popular with the Academy as well, having bagged 10 nominations for joint second place with The Brutalist, though it missed key bids in Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay.
Grande lost some heat (and winner predictions) after losing the Globe — she was in second place in the odds at all the precursors — and her best chance to grab a win was at the SAG Awards, where Wicked over-performed with five nominations, including bids for Jonathan Bailey and stunt ensemble. The crowd-pleasing musical appeared right up mainstream SAG-AFTRA's alley, and the 160,000-member guild includes recording artists, DJs, and influencers, which could've given Grande an edge. SAG voting ran through Feb. 21, so the Gascón controversy could've been a factor. Alas, Wicked was shut out at SAG, becoming the second film after The Banshees of Inisherin to lose all five of its bids there. It's also impossible to know how much, if at all, the knowledge of the forthcoming Wicked: For Good will impact how voters vote. Will anyone vote for someone else because they think they can get Grande next year? Even though they could have a new favorite from a film they haven't seen yet this time next year. Nevertheless, Grande does have another shot at bat for Glinda.
Underdog: Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
You could make the case for Barbaro and Jones. Their films' leading men are the top two in Best Actor, A Complete Unknown is peaking at the right time, and The Brutalist is a top player in Best Picture and Best Director. Their films also over-performed or maxed-out in nominations, while Conclave was snubbed in Best Director and Best Cinematography. Still, Conclave, a movie for which it's challenging to find haters, is in the thick of it, especially after winning Best Picture at BAFTA and Best Ensemble at SAG. That can only help Rossellini, who received her long-awaited maiden nomination at 72, to join her mother, Ingrid Bergman, a three-time Oscar winner, as an Oscar nominee. Rossellini, who only missed SAG of the major precursors, courts a different demo of voters than that of her much younger fellow nominees — three of whom sing in their nominated roles. She's a screen legend with a nearly 50-year career and many friends in the biz who are happy to see her finally getting her flowers from the Academy. She's also so appreciative of the recognition herself. While Salda?a endured online disapproval about her performance being too long for supporting, many bristled at Rossellini's potential nomination and underrated her chances because her performance, which clocks in circa eight minutes, might be too short. But that is an actual supporting performance, and Rossellini's big scene in the cafeteria has anecdotally elicited cheers and applause from audiences.
That being said, it would've helped Rossellini's cause greatly to get individual hardware in the lead-up — and she has no remaining opportunities since she was snubbed at SAG. She is in third place in the Oscar odds. Since BAFTA became an Oscar precursor 24 years ago, only three performers have taken home the Oscar without a win at the Globes, Critics Choice, SAG, or BAFTA: Marcia Gay Harden (Pollock), Denzel Washington (Training Day), and Adrien Brody (The Pianist). In Pollock's case, the four awards went to four different women, which has has not happened here.
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