Who Will Reunite Next? We Place Odds on 17 Groups, From Led Zeppelin to One Direction
News of the Oasis reunion has sent shockwaves throughout the music world, especially since Noel Gallagher has spent the past 15 years swearing such a thing would never happen. But should anyone really be all that surprised? Liam and Noel Gallagher may not like each other very much, but they could make somewhere in the ballpark of $300 to $500 million from a reunion tour. That’ll come in very handy for Noel in the aftermath of his costly divorce from wife Sara MacDonald.
They’re also far from the first rock band to reunite despite years of bad blood. The Eagles even called their 1994 reunion tour Hell Freezes Over. And since that time, hell has frozen over for Guns N’ Roses, Fleetwood Mac, Kiss, M?tley Crüe, Smashing Pumpkins, Pavement, Pixies, the Fugees, Bauhaus Rage Against The Machine, and many other groups that seemingly like money more than they hate each other. Some of these reunions flamed out within months, and some are still going strong today.
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But there are still several big name acts that remain stubbornly inactive. Here’s a look at 17 of them and our 100% unscientific odds that they’ll reunite someday.
Pink Floyd
Why They Split: Band relations hit a real low on the band’s 1980–81 Wall tour, but after Roger Waters left in the early 1980s, the remaining trio of David Gilmour, Richard Wright, and Nick Mason got along quite well and turned into a functioning unit. They also played many enormous stadium gigs, but by the end of 1994’s massive Division Bell tour, David Gilmour had had enough. They quietly went on an indefinite hiatus when the tour wrapped after a long run of shows at London’s Earls Court in October 1994.
Last Performance: The classic line-up of Gilmour, Wright, Mason, and Waters did a four-song set at Live 8 in the summer of 2005. Three years later, Richard Wright died of cancer — forever ruling out a complete reunion. In May 2011, David Gilmour performed “Comfortably Numb” with Roger Waters at London’s 02 Arena, and Mason (playing tambourine) came out with Gilmour for “Outside the Wall.” David Gilmour and Nick Mason linked up in the studio in 2014 to complete some unfinished Richard Wright tracks on the largely instrumental album The Endless River, but they didn’t support it with any live work
Odds of a Reunion: The Pink Floyd detente that culminated with a handful of mini-reunions between 2005 and 2011 is long over. They had a band meeting a few years back to try and sort everything out, but it resulted in nothing more than even more bitterness and public acrimony. Even simple matters like an Animals box set devolved into a year-long civil war between Waters and Gilmour. And things went nuclear in 2023 when Polly Samson, David Gilmour’s wife and Floyd’s longtime lyricist, blasted Waters on Twitter. “Roger Waters you are antisemitic to your rotten core,” she wrote. “Also a Putin apologist and a lying, thieving, hypocritical, tax-avoiding, lip-synching, misogynistic, sick-with-envy, megalomaniac. Enough of your nonsense.” David Gilmour shared the Tweet, adding, “Every word demonstrably true.” If Pink Floyd weren’t dead before that Tweet, they were sure afterward. We put the odds of a reunion at 1%.
Genesis With Peter Gabriel
Why They Split: There’s a certain type of artist that simply cannot handle life in a band where creative decisions are shared even somewhat equally among the members, especially after they achieve some degree of success. It’s a situation that can result in the group becoming a dictatorship (Pink Floyd, Talking Heads) or a band-in-name-only where most of the members are jettisoned (pre-reunion Guns N’ Roses, pre-reunion Smashing Pumpkins). There’s also the Genesis route, where the leader steps aside for a solo career and allows the group to continue in their absence. This took place in 1975 after the band’s Lamb Lies Down on Broadway tour. In an almost unique outcome in the history of rock, both Genesis and Peter Gabriel fared far better commercially in the aftermath.
Last Performance: On Oct. 2, 1982, Genesis reunited with Gabriel and guitarist Steve Hackett for the Six of the Best concert at Milton Keynes Bowl in England. It was hastily put together to help Gabriel pay off the enormous bills he accumulated in the aftermath of the inaugural WOMAD Festival that year. In the years that followed, Gabriel became a superstar thanks to hits like “In Your Eyes” and “Sledgehammer,” and he no longer needed his old bandmates to bail him out of financial jams.
Odds of a Reunion: The Phil Collins incarnation of Genesis was more successful than the Gabriel one by an enormous magnitude. They reformed for one last tour in 2021/22, but Phil was unable to play drums due to severe nerve damage he’s suffered over the years. His son Nicholas played in his place. It’s a situation that would make it impossible for Phil to perform in any meaningful way on a reunion tour with Gabriel, but one that would allow Nicholas to take over for him. Could a tour happen in a couple of years with Gabriel, Nicholas Collins, Steve Hackett, Michael Rutherford, and Tony Banks? It’s far from impossible, but we’re still saying just a 25% chance.
Talking Heads
Why They Split: To simplify a rather complex story, the other members of the band got sick of the public seeing them as David Byrne’s backing band. At the same time, Byrne grew increasingly uneasy about having to share creative responsibilities. The result was a very dysfunctional band. They didn’t officially split until 1991, but their last time on the road was the legendary Speaking in Tongues tour of 1983–84.
Last Performance: The group shocked many when they agreed to perform at their induction into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame in 2002. “It had been a long time since we’d had much of a conversation,” Chris Frantz said in 2009. “We’d bump into David at Lou Reed’s house or something like that. But that was the first time we’d sat down and talked.” Unlike with many sloppy Rock Hall reunions, the four members put aside their differences and carefully rehearsed a killer three-song set of “Psycho Killer,” “Life During Wartime,” and “Burning Down the House.”
Odds of a Reunion: Up until very recently, they seemed remarkably slim. David Byrne had been almost completely estranged from his bandmates since the Hall of Fame induction in 2002, and Frantz and Weymouth rarely held back their anger towards him when speaking to the press. But earlier this year, the foursome came back together to promote a 40th-anniversary edition of Stop Making Sense since the rights reverted back to them. A one-off Q&A at the Toronto Film Festival turned into a long promotional tour that took them to talk shows and large theaters all across the country. It gave them a chance to repair the friendship, but they never played a note of music together. Any sort of tour still seems like a far-off possibility, but we’ll move it up to 20%.
The Kinks
Why They Split: If the Everly Brothers invented sibling rivalry in rock & roll, the Kinks perfected it. Ray and Dave Davies were at each other’s throats from nearly the moment the band burst onto the rock scene with “You Really Got Me” in 1964. Somehow or another, they stuck together until 1996, when they split in the face of lagging record sales and declining attendance at their concerts. Much like the Ramones, who split up the exact same year, they’d been around so long that people began to take them for granted.
Last Performance: Ray and Dave Davies (along with various former Kinks) have appeared in public at numerous award shows and functions during the past two decades, but the group hasn’t done a concert since 1996. Ray and Dave Davies performed “You Really Got Me” at a Dave solo concert in 2015.
Odds of a Reunion: The brothers have already reunited in the studio during the past few years. Nobody has heard what they’ve done, but Ray and Dave say they hope to get some sort of Kinks release out in the near future. (We’ll believe it when we hear it, though.) A tour is another question. Ray hasn’t even gone on a solo tour in nine years. It’s possible they’ve just waited too long and gotten too old, but a single concert or a limited run in the next couple of years feels at least somewhat possible. We’re putting it at 50%.
Led Zeppelin
Why They Split: Zeppelin drummer John Bonham died in 1980, causing the band to split. The remaining trio re-formed at Live Aid in 1985, an Atlantic Records anniversary concert in 1988, and their induction into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame in 1995. Despite pleas from his bandmates and fans, Robert Plant has refused all offers of a reunion tour.
Last Performance: In December of 2007 Led Zeppelin performed their first full concert since Bonham died in 1980 at London’s 02 Arena in honor of the late Ahmet Ertegun. They spent months rehearsing a stellar two-hour show, but nothing more came of it. Jimmy Page and John Paul Jones were so frustrated with the situation that they auditioned a bunch of singers in 2008 and even looked seriously into a tour without Plant, but wisely canceled the whole thing before it got off the ground.
Odds of a Reunion: Robert Plant has been extremely clear that he has absolutely no interest in ever fronting Led Zeppelin again, and that he viewed the 02 Arena show as a perfect way to end the band. They could play every stadium in the world and make a billion dollars, but Robert Plant is rich enough, and this is almost certainly never going to happen. 10%.
R.E.M.
Why They Split: Sometimes a band just runs its course. R.E.M. had an incredible 30-year run, but in 2011 they mutually decided it was time to move on. “There is sadness because I will never play on the same stage as Peter and Michael again,” Mike Mills told Rolling Stone that year. “We’re doing this for good reasons, and we end up looking back at all the fun, the joy and the incredible opportunities we had. … We needed to prove, not only to our fans and critics but to ourselves, that we could still make great records. And we made two. We thought, ‘We’ve done it. Now let’s do something no other band has done: Shake hands and walk away as friends.'”
Last Performance: The band wrapped up their 2008 world tour in Mexico City on November 18th, 2008. The following March, they played “E-Bow the Letter” with Patti Smith at their own tribute concert at Carnegie Hall. There have been a handful of partial reunions since then at special events, but the full lineup didn’t play together until June 13, 2024, when they shocked the crowd at the Songwriters Hall of Fame ceremony by playing “Losing My Religion.”
Odds of a Reunion: The band says it’s never going to happen, but nobody saw the Songwriters Hall of Fame moment coming. Of course, there’s a huge difference between one song at an awards ceremony and a tour. We’re going to say 30%.
Fleetwood Mac With Lindsey Buckingham
Why They Split: The dissolution of Fleetwood Mac took place in two stages. The first came in 2018 when they parted ways with Lindsey Buckingham because Stevie Nicks felt she could no longer work with him. There was a lawsuit. It got messy. In the meantime, they recruited Neil Fill of Crowded House and Mike Campbell of Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers to take his place. They toured in 2018 and 2019. But the second stage came in November 2022 when Christine McVie died. It marked the end of Fleetwood Mac.
Last Performance: The Rumours lineup last played on January 26, 2018, when they were honored by the Grammy’s at a MusiCares event in New York City. That was the night Stevie decided she was done with Lindsey forever due to backstage tension. The Lindsey-free band last played together on November 20, 2019, at Oracle Park in San Francisco. It was a benefit show for UCSF Benioff Children’s Hospitals.
Odds of a Reunion: Earlier this year, Nicks ruled out the chance of another tour. “Without Christine [McVie], no can do,” she said. “There is no chance of putting Fleetwood Mac back together in any way. Without her, it just couldn’t work.” It could theoretically work if Buckingham came back, but she put the kibosh on that, too. “Even if I thought I could work with Lindsey again, he’s had some health problems,” Nick said. “It’s not for me to say, but I’m not sure if Lindsey could do the kind of touring that Fleetwood Mac does, where you go out for a year and a half. It’s so demanding.” All of this seems pretty grim, but we can still imagine some sort of scenario where Mick Fleetwood, John McVie (health-allowing), Stevie Nicks, and Lindsey Buckingham find some sort of way to end the band on a proper note. It’s just not very likely. We’ll say 20%.
The White Stripes
Why They Split: The White Stripes toured in 2007 behind their new album Icky Thump, but the final dates were called off due to drummer Meg White’s “acute anxiety problem.” They announced their split in February 2011. “The reason is not due to artistic differences or lack of wanting to continue,” they said. “Nor any health issues as both Meg and Jack are feeling fine and in good health. It is for a myriad of reasons, but mostly to preserve what is beautiful and special about the band and have it stay that way. Both Meg and Jack hope this decision isn’t met with sorrow by their fans but that it is seen as a positive move done out of respect for the music that the band has created. It is also done with the utmost respect to those fans who’ve shared in those creations, with their feelings considered greatly.”
Last Performance: On February 20th, 2009, the White Stripes performed their 2002 song “We’re Going to Be Friends” on Conan O’Brien’s final Late Night show before his disastrous takeover of The Tonight Show.
Odds of a Reunion: They’re young enough that it seems likely their paths will cross again at some point down the road. Maybe they’ll headline Coachella in 2030. We’re going to put the odds of an eventual reunion at 60%.
‘NSync
Why They Split: In 2002, Justin Timberlake realized that the boy-band craze was quickly coming to an end. He called for a group hiatus and began to focus on his solo career. The others thought about carrying on as a four-piece, but wisely decided against it. Meanwhile, Justin went on to a huge solo career and never looked back.
Last Performance: They briefly reunited in 2013 when Justin Timberlake was given the Video Vanguard award at the MTV VMAs and again on March 13, 2024, at the Wiltern Theater in Los Angeles. It was a mere four-song set, some not even complete, designed to promote Timberlake’s new LP, Everything I Thought I Was.
Odds of a Reunion: This one feels pretty likely, considering the guys remain good friends and are just in their 40s and early 50s. They have plenty of time to make this happen. Timberlake has also had a few pretty rough years PR-wise, and he’s facing criminal charges over a DUI arrest. A reunion tour would spread a lot of goodwill and remind everyone why they loved him in the first place. We’re playing the odds of this one at 85%.
The Smiths
Why They Split: The Smiths accomplished a lot during their five-year run, but when guitarist Johnny Marr quit the band in the summer of 1987, they simply couldn’t continue — despite a very brief attempt to soldier on with guitarist Ivor Perry.
Last Performance: The Smiths’ final show to date was at London’s Brixton Academy on December 12th, 1986. They finished the set with “Hand in Glove,” which was their first single just four years earlier.
Odds of a Reunion: Relations within the Smiths have been extremely poor for quite some time, especially after drummer Mike Joyce sued Morrissey over unpaid royalties. Morrissey hates even being asked about the possibility of a reunion, famously saying that he’d rather “eat his own testicles” than perform with the band. Amazingly, Johnny Marr revealed in his 2016 memoir that he met with Morrissey in 2008 and talked about re-forming the band minus Joyce. Unsurprisingly, it never went anywhere. And after the death of bassist Andy Rourke in 2023, the odds of future Smith activity seem more remote than ever. They’re hovering at 5% now.
Sonic Youth
Why They Split: This one is simple: Thurston Moore and Kim Gordon ended their marriage in 2011, and that was it for the band.
Last performance: Sonic Youth last played live on November 12th, 2011, at the Parque Brasil 500, Paulínia, Brazil. The final song they did was their 1988 classic “Teen Age Riot.”
Odds of a Reunion: Sonny and Cher still managed to do their variety show years after they legally divorced. They probably didn’t love the idea, but money makes people do strange things. Moore and Gordon stand to make a ton should they ever decide to make the band happen again. We’ll say 25%.
Black Sabbath
Why They Split: The band re-formed with Ozzy Osbourne in 2012 for a reunion tour minus drummer Bill Ward. That led to the new LP 13 in 2013 and another tour. The only other move in the veteran-band playbook after that was a farewell tour.
Last Performance: They called it quits after a hometown show in Birmingham, England, on February 4th, 2017.
Odds of a Reunion: Ozzy Osbourne has gone through a series of horrific health issues in recent years that have made it impossible for him to perform. Despite this, he continues to fantasize about the possibility of somehow doing one last show with the complete OG Sabbath lineup. But Bill Ward has health issues of his own that would further complicate this. Geezer Butler and Tony Iommi both say they are down. We can perhaps imagine one final “Paranoid” at a special event to end the group on a positive note, but it doesn’t feel supremely likely. Let’s say 35%.
Simon and Garfunkel
Why They Split: Simon and Garfunkel somehow managed to get over their hatred of each other from 2003 to 2010, touring all over the world in that time and pulling in millions. But when Garfunkel’s vocal issues caused them to cancel a series of dates in 2010, old tensions flared up and they again went their separate ways.
Last Performance: They played “Mrs. Robinson” at the AFI Tribute to Mike Nichols on June 10th, 2010. It was the song that made them true pop superstars, and Nichols made that happen, so it’s somewhat appropriate if that is indeed the last time they perform.
Odds of a Reunion: Paul Simon wrapped up his Homeward Bound farewell tour last year with a hometown show in Queens. He grew up with his buddy Artie not far from the concert grounds, but Garfunkel wasn’t onstage that night. We asked Simon about a possible reunion in 2016 and he gave a very blunt answer. “No, out of the question,” he said. “We don’t even talk.” As long as they are both alive, it is possible they’ll be a “How Terribly Strange to Be 80” tour at some point, but we’re putting the odds at 15%.
One Direction
Why They Split: One Direction started as five random contestants on the U.K. X Factor in 2010, but they quickly became one of the biggest acts in the world. They released five albums and played just about every stadium on the planet, but Zayn Malik quit the band in 2015, citing a desire to be a “normal 22-year-old.” Much like the defections of Ginger Spice and Jordan Knight before him, his exit marked the beginning of the end of the group.
Last Performance: They wrapped up their On the Road tour on October 31st, 2015, at Motorpoint Arena in Sheffield, England. But in the weeks that followed, they played a handful of awards shows and Christmas concerts. The last performance took place in Times Square on December 31st, 2015, as part of Dick Clark’s New Year’s Rockin’ Eve special. The final song was “History,” and they were history once it was over.
Odds of a Reunion: Harry Styles has pulled a Justin Timberlake by transforming himself into a solo star who also takes the time to appear in an occasional movie. He’s even part of the Marvel Universe now. To put it another way, he’s doing quite fine on his own. That said, he’s just 27, and gravity will eventually hit his career. It might take another couple of decades, but we think it’s quite likely that the five-man lineup of One Direction will tour again someday. This one is an 85%.
Sex Pistols
Why They Split: The original Sex Pistols was a highly combustible unit even before they found any success, and manager Malcolm McLaren seemed to take an almost perverse delight in driving them apart. Founding bassist Glen Matlock was sacked in 1977, even though he was a gifted musician and a key songwriting voice. He was replaced by Sid Vicious, who looked the part but couldn’t play a note on the bass and was helplessly addicted to heroin. The band imploded shortly after their inaugural U.S. tour in early 1978.
Last Performance: Johnny Rotten, Steve Jones, Paul Cook, and Glen Matlock reunited in 1996 for the Filthy Lucre tour, where they became the first band in history to admit that the motivation behind their reformation was 100% financial. They still put on incredible shows, and they continued with more live activity in 2002, 2003, 2007, and 2008. The last run was a series of European festivals. Steve Jones described the time period in his memoir Lonely Boy as an endless nightmare marked by fights with Rotten, and paydays that were way less than they expected due to the global recession. “I was in hell,” he wrote. The last show took place on September 5th, 2008, in Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain.
Odds of a Reunion: Relations between Johnny Rotten and his fellow Sex Pistols have been pretty poor during the past few years, but they reached an all-time low when production began on the Danny Boyle limited FX series Pistol. It’s based on Steve Jones’ memoir, and Rotten is so livid about the whole thing that he took the band to court to stop it. He lost the battle, and he’s beyond pissed. “I am the lead singer and songwriter, frontman, image, the lot, you name it,” he said after the defeat. “I put it there. How is that not relevant?” Realizing a full reunion was a lost cause, the other three recruited UK punk singer Frank Carter for a series of Sex Pistols shows in England this year. But it’s not really the Pistols without Mr. Rotten. And the odds of him coming back are no higher than 15%.
The Police
Why They Split: The original 1984 breakup happened because the three members of the Police were sick of fighting with each other, and Sting was itching to go solo. They split again after their 2007–08 reunion tour since they played 151 shows, grossed $362 million, and realized the enthusiasm behind their return would diminish if they kept at it much longer. Besides, Sting was only willing to live in the past for so long and wanted to return to his solo career.
Last Performance: They wrapped things up on August 7th, 2009, at Madison Square Garden with an epic concert that opened with a cover of Cream’s “Sunshine of Your Love” and culminated with Sting shaving off his long beard onstage and belting out “Next to You” to end the night. They walked offstage to the Looney Tunes music and Porky Pig announcing, “That’s all folks.”
Odds of a Reunion: The last reunion worked because they hadn’t toured in 23 years and there was a huge demand to see them live again. At this point, all their OG fans have had to chance to pony up big bucks to relive their youth. The have the T-shirt, the live album, the concert film, and very good memories. “The First Tour Since 2008!” wouldn’t have the same kick as “The First Tour Since Synchronicity!” Sting remains a very large draw on the road and plays a Police-heavy set. He did the reunion thing and has no desire to go there again. Besides, Andy Summers is nearly 82. This one is at 15%.
Daft Punk
Why They Split: The French electronic-music duo of Guy-Manuel de Homem-Christo and Thomas Bangalter are so mysterious that they’ve spent much of their career hiding behind enormous helmets, rarely speaking to the press. The gambit has worked since they only grew more popular with each album and tour. Their 2006–07 Alive tour saw them playing on a giant pyramid-like stage, and the reviews were ecstatic all across the globe. They burst through to true mainstream success with their 2013 LP Random Access Memories and the hit “Get Lucky,” but in 2021, they quietly announced their split via a YouTube video they simply called “Epilogue.” It showed one robot blowing up and another walking away.
Last Performance: They could have taken Random Access Memories on the road in 2013 and played just about every stadium on the planet. For reasons they never explained, no such tour happened. But they did occasionally show up at the Grammys to play a song or two. The last time took place on February 12th, 2017, when they did “Starboy” and “I Feel It Coming” with the Weeknd. Nobody knew it at the time, but they were witnessing the end of an era. It was their final public appearance.
Odds of a Reunion: If Daft Punk were motivated mainly by money, we would have gotten a lot more live shows out of them over the past 15 years. The cash they left on the table by not doing that is hard to calculate, but it’s a very hefty sum. Despite that, their sheer unpredictability makes it very hard to look into their future. The guys are only in their mid-forties, and who can say what they might decide to do in 2030 or even 2040? We’re going to put the reunion odds at 33%.
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