Singularity achieved? After shaky start, AI has suddenly become relevant to Oscar predictions
All season long, we've had fun comparing our Gold Derby Oscar predictions to those of AI bots like Gemini and Meta. Remember when they thought Lady Gaga was a sure thing for a Best Actress nomination for Joker: Folie à Deux? Those were the days. Anyhow, with the Oscar ceremony scheduled for March 2, we're checking in with artificial intelligence one last time — and we're genuinely surprised with the results.
After that initial weirdness with Lady Gaga (maybe Gemini was confusing Oscars and the Razzies?), Gemini's predictions have largely come into alignment with our human experts. Should we be worried about being replaced?
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Below, take a peek at what artificial intelligence is predicting will win the top six awards (picture, director, actress, actor, supporting actress, supporting actor).
AI Oscar predictions for Best Picture:
1. Anora: "This film is generating significant buzz, with many critics highlighting its strong storytelling and direction. It has also gained momentum from strong showings in precursor awards."
2. Conclave
3. The Brutalist
4. Emilia Pérez
Gold Derby's response: We agree with Gemini's one-two-three punch of Anora, Conclave, and The Brutalist. However, we have Emilia Pérez down in sixth place following its highly publicized scandals involving Gascón. The other Best Picture contenders are A Complete Unknown, Wicked, The Substance, I'm Still Here, Dune: Part Two, and Nickel Boys.
AI Oscar predictions for Best Director:
1. Sean Baker (Anora): "Baker's directorial style in Anora has garnered significant praise. His ability to capture authentic performances and craft compelling narratives makes him a strong contender. Strong showings in the DGA awards, and other precursor awards, have increased his standing."
2. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
3. Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez)
4. James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)
5. Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
Gold Derby's response: Baker soared to No. 1 in our predictions center soon after he won the pivotal Directors Guild Award. But don't count out Corbet just yet — he claimed directing victories of his own at the Golden Globes and BAFTAs.
AI Oscar predictions for Best Actress:
1. Demi Moore (The Substance): "Moore's performance has been generating considerable buzz, with many praising her intensity and commitment to the role. She has been very strong in many of the precursor awards."
2. Mikey Madison (Anora)
3. Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez)
4. Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here)
5. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)
Gold Derby's response: Moore's shocking win at the Golden Globes upended the entire season, and she later triumphed at the Critics Choice and Screen Actors Guild Awards, too. One-time frontrunner Madison has the BAFTA under her belt, while Torres is a wildcard since she hasn't been nominated anywhere since her Golden Globe victory. The notable misfire is Gemini placing Torres behind Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez), whose Gold Derby odds have tanked in recent weeks. As Gemini notes: "Gascón's performance is making history, and she is generating a lot of attention." Both parts of that statement are technically true. She made history as the first openly transgender performer to be nominated at the Oscars. And soon after that, she received lots of negative media attention when her former offensive social posts about George Floyd, Muslims, diversity at the Oscars, and more resurfaced. Gascón apologized multiple times and eventually removed herself from the awards campaign, though she is planning on attending this weekend's ceremony.
AI Oscar predictions for Best Actor:
1. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist): "Brody's performance is receiving considerable praise, and he's emerged as a strong frontrunner in many predictions. His work in the film has been described as powerful and impactful."
2. Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
3. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
4. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
5. Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
Gold Derby's response: This contest was Brody all the way (winning at Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA) until Chalamet staged an upset at last week's SAG Awards. While Brody still looks strong to win his second career Best Actor Oscar, Chalamet has definitely made this race more interesting in the final days.
AI Oscar predictions for Best Supporting Actress:
1. Zoe Salda?a (Emilia Pérez): "Salda?a's performance in Emilia Pérez has garnered significant attention, and she is considered a strong frontrunner. Her presence in the film is very strong, and many consider her to be a co-lead. She is also preforming very well in the precursor awards."
2. Ariana Grande (Wicked)
3. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
4. Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)
5. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
Gold Derby's response: Salda?a is undefeated at the precursors, and she's considered one of the biggest locks of the night.
AI Oscar predictions for Best Supporting Actor:
1. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain): "Culkin is emerging as a very strong frontrunner. His performance has received widespread critical acclaim, and he has been very strong in the precursor awards. He has been gaining a lot of momentum throughout the award season."
2. Yura Borisov (Anora)
3. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
4. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
5. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
Gold Derby's response: Culkin is the overwhelming favorite after winning everywhere else this awards season. Another major lock.
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