Still riding high, Kendrick Lamar gets best odds to win 2026 Grammy for Album of the Year
Kendrick Lamar is on top of the world and is looking to stay there.
The rapper followed up his Feb. 2 Grammy sweep — where he won all five of his nominations for “Not Like Us” (Record of the Year, Song of the Year, Best Rap Performance, Best Rap Song, and Best Music Video) — by winning the Super Bowl on Sunday. Lamar’s halftime headline show at the Eagles-Chief game, featuring a medley of his tracks including “Not Like Us,” was an unqualified success. This tops what has been arguably the best of his career — and this man has a Pulitzer.
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But the recognition may not be over yet. He surprise-released a new album, GNX, back on Nov. 22, which means he’s eligible for Grammys again in 2026. And according to the current (and extremely early) Gold Derby odds, he’s on track to win Album of the Year.
Lamar has been nominated for Album of the Year regularly since 2014 when his Good Kid, M.A.A.D City made the cut. He lost to Daft Punk‘s Random Access Memories. Then he was nominated again in 2016 for To Pimp a Butterfly, losing to Taylor Swift‘s 1989. In 2017 Lamar was nommed as a featured artist on Beyoncé‘s Lemonade, which lost to Adele‘s 25. Lamar’s Damn — which won him that Pulitzer Prize — was nominated in 2018, losing to Bruno Mars‘ 24K Magic. Right after that the Grammys nominated the Lamar-produced Black Panther soundtrack in 2019; it lost to Kacey Musgraves‘ Golden Hour. Most recently, Lamar was nominated for Mr. Morale and the Big Steppers in 2023, but lost to Harry Styles‘ Harry’s House. That’s six attempts and six losses.
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But don’t feel too bad for Lamar. Though he is usually relegated to rap categories — as most rap artists are — he has won 22 times over the course of his career thus far. That makes him the third most awarded rapper of all time, just two shy of the record shared by Kanye West and Jay-Z. Lamar could leapfrog those two genre stalwarts just in rap categories, regardless of what happens in Album of the Year. But the top category looks more and more attainable. Rap rarely wins in the general field, but we’ve seen signs of voters loosening up. “This Is America” by Childish Gambino won Record and Song of the Year in 2019. And Lamar won those awards in 2025, the same night Beyoncé won her overdue Grammy for Album of the Year for Cowboy Carter. So perhaps the Recording Academy’s efforts to expand and diversify its membership are paying off.
And now that Beyoncé has won best album at long last, all eyes are on Lamar to finally get his due from Grammy voters. The only rap album that has ever won Album of the Year was OutKast‘s Speakerboxxx/The Love Below back in 2004. But even peak OutKast wasn’t as revered as Lamar is in industry circles or for nearly as long. So it may only be a matter of time before all the stars line up for him. And he’s got plenty of momentum from thrashing Drake in their war of diss tracks last year, dominating the Grammys with one of those diss tracks, and then performing it at the Super Bowl. GNX remains in the top five after 11 weeks on the Billboard 200 albums chart, so the only question is whether it can maintain that momentum for another year. His upcoming “Grand National” tour with SZA can only help. Drake may want to lay low for a while.
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