Tony Talk: Musicals ‘Gypsy,’ ‘Maybe Happy Ending,’ and ‘Sunset Blvd’ look strong at midpoint of Broadway season
Welcome to Tony Talk, a column in which Gold Derby contributors Sam Eckmann and David Buchanan offer Tony Awards analysis. With only four months to go until the 2025 nominations are announced, we’ve reconvened for a retrospective on the musicals from the first half of the Broadway season, during which a total of nine new works and revivals have bowed out of the anticipated 21 total that will be eligible.
David Buchanan: Hey, Sam! It’s hard to believe, but we’re less than four months away from the 2025 Tony Awards nominations. While the Broadway season has been flying by, we’ve already seen five new musicals and four musical revivals open, including some truly first-rate productions. How do you think the competition for the top category of Best Musical has been shaking out so far?
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Sam Eckmann: David, at some point in November I had to double-check my calendar to remind myself that it was indeed the fall and not the final week of Tony Awards eligibility in April. There has been an absolute avalanche of quality Broadway productions, and if the Tonys were held in a few weeks we could already fill out the nominees with shows that have opened so far. As far as Best Musical is concerned, the title on everyone’s lips is Maybe Happy Ending. It’s a life-affirming tale about two retired androids whose parts are approaching obsolescence. As they grow close over the course of one last grand adventure together, the pair discovers what it means to be human and what makes life worth living. It has audiences weeping with recognition, and the effortless chemistry of Darren Criss and Helen J. Shen should score them both acting nominations. It’s already been deemed “the little engine that could” by many insiders, as its initial box-office grosses were quite dire. But the producers have turned its fate around and Maybe Happy Ending now looks set to fill its houses through Tony nominations. Did you fall in love with this one the same way I did?
David Buchanan: Absolutely! This is the one new musical of the fall that has really taken the Broadway community by storm, especially since it has only been gaining in positive word of mouth since its relatively subdued opening weeks. I know we have a slew of new shows coming in the spring — we’ll get to them — but I feel pretty confident saying that it’s leaps-and-bounds out front of the others heading into the March and April deluge and should have no problem carrying its momentum to a Best Musical nomination. As we discussed last season, Tony nominators are very savvy about not just what shows they like, but also what the nominations mean, and I think they’ll feel pretty good about giving such a strong show a real boost with their recognition. But what say you about the other four? I know you were dying with anticipation about Death Becomes Her. Did it live up to your expectations? That’s the other most successful musical to debut this year. Then there’s A Wonderful World: The Louis Armstrong Musical, Tammy Faye, and Swept Away, which I feel may all have their best chances for noms in the acting categories, with varying degrees of success.
Sam Eckmann: Death Becomes Her was the glorious camp fest that I needed it to be. Stars Megan Hilty and Jennifer Simard are giving a comedic master class. Of the musicals we’ve seen so far, it’s definitely the next most likely to score a Best Musical slot behind Maybe Happy Ending. Once we get to the spring, it will face competition from other tuners hoping to corner the “splashy-song-and-dance-comedy” market, particularly from Boop! and Smash. But Death Becomes Her has the advantage of time: it’s already firmly staked its claim as a bona fide box office success and the dominant musical comedy of the fall. Plus, it differentiates itself from its source material just enough to feel current. A Wonderful World could score James Monroe Iglehart another Tony nomination for his impressive vocal and physical transformation into jazz legend Louis Armstrong — the design elements are strong, too — but Tony voters have fatigue with bio-musicals, so a Best Musical bid will be a taller order. As for Tammy Faye and Swept Away… ouch! We haven’t seen big budget musicals fold this quickly in years, and now there’s two in one season. That said, Swept Away‘s John Gallagher Jr. is a favorite of the Broadway community, so I’m not going to count him out of the race. And Katie Brayben gave her all as Tammy Faye. She could receive a sympathy nomination the same way Carollee Carmello did for Scandalous, another critically doused show about a different televangelist. There’s still plenty of unknowns in the Best Musical race, but we already have a titanic showdown for Musical Revival. Gypsy vs. Sunset Blvd feels like the main event this year. Do you think these productions live up to the hype? Can any other revival swoop in for a win?
David Buchanan: Gallagher and Olivier Award-winning Brayben are precisely the two performers I think could receive noms from those short-lived shows, too. But you’re right, I think we’ve buried the lede long enough because the fall on Broadway has truly been dominated by two musical revivals in what is shaping up to be a real “Battle of 44th Street” for the top prize. We have some interesting fare coming in this category in the spring, but no, I don’t think any of those shows will topple Gypsy or Sunset Blvd. These two productions are reinventions of their shows in ways large and small. Director Jamie Lloyd has brought cinema to Sunset Blvd in a truly evocative way, while George C. Wolfe has brought us the first Black Momma Rose, June, and Louise in Broadway history. Sunset has the word of mouth of being the “event” of the Broadway season and it is certainly a theatrical experience like none other. But doing something so innovative — the production uses a 20-plus-foot video screen and live-capture to bring the universe of 1950s film to the stage — isn’t without risk, and I know a lot of folks who were left cold by the overall aesthetic of the show. I think this remounting of Gypsy is perhaps more conventional than people were expecting from Wolfe, too, though being faithful to a musical as tight as Gypsy is never a bad move. In other words, these are two massive productions of beloved musicals and I don’t think one is a slam-dunk victor over the other. How do you size them up? The only category tougher to call than this one right now is Best Musical Actress, where Sunset‘s Nicole Scherzinger and Gypsy‘s Audra McDonald are far and away the frontrunners right now, too.
SEE ‘Sunset Blvd’ revival could surpass Tony nominations of original 1994 Broadway production
Sam Eckmann: Co-signing all of that, David! Although, I will say that Floyd Collins could be the one spring revival that has a sliver of a chance to snatch a win from these two behemoths of the fall. Floyd Collins has never been seen on Broadway before, and the opportunity to finally reward a classic has been a key component in the victories of other revivals like Hedwig and the Angry Inch, The Boys in the Band, and Jitney. All that being said, we won’t know the true strength of Floyd Collins until we see it! Until then, it’s safe to assume that this is a battle between Mama Rose and Norma Desmond. I do agree that Jamie Lloyd’s minimalist take (or is it secretly maximalist considering that epic movie screen?) on Sunset Blvd is not for everyone. I’ve talked with a good number of industry professionals who respect the major swing for the fences, but were ultimately left turned off by the production on the whole. Still, the show’s PR game is strong. Their team has done an excellent job at turning this into what feels like the theatrical event of the fall: love it or hate it, everyone feels like they must see it and must have an opinion on it. Still, Gypsy is simply one of the best musicals ever written, and it’s thrilling to see this level of talent bring it to life. It’s definitely a more accessible show, and anyone who is left cold by Sunset will flock to Gypsy. It has perfectly crafted comedic numbers, major set pieces (can you believe they built that car that only comes out for 45 seconds!), and allows the most decorated actor in Tony history to further redefine herself as a performer. Both McDonald and Scherzinger have audiences leaping to their feet with multiple standing ovations per performance. I expect the lead actress race to be a nail-biter up until the very end. What’s crazy to consider is that we already have more than enough A-grade performances to fill out the entire category. We have the aforementioned Brayben, Hilty, Simard, and Shen, plus a charming turn from Sutton Foster in Once Upon a Mattress. Then the spring is going to bring us performances from Robyn Hurder (Smash), Idina Menzel (Redwood), Jasmine Amy Rogers (Boop!), and Adrienne Warren (The Last Five Years). My head hurts trying to determine who gets left out.
David Buchanan: Great point about Floyd Collins, Sam. That show could easily make Best Revival a three-way race, especially given how beloved Adam Guettel is as a composer and the tremendous success Lincoln Center Theatre has had in this particular category in the last decade or more. I truly don’t know who I would predict between Scherzinger and McDonald for the trophy at this moment. Whatever folks think about the success of the productions overall, those performances have received such rave reviews, and the roles and their approaches to them could not be more different. I mean, has anyone seen either “As If We’ve Never Said Goodbye” or “Rose’s Turn” performed quite like this before? What I love about both those numbers in these productions is that Scherzinger and McDonald get to perform them front and center, directly to the audience. The connection and feeling in those theaters for those five minutes each is nothing short of electrifying. It also helps both of their chances that those revivals plan to run through June at least, meaning neither will face the uphill battle of winning the trophy for a closed production, which has felled many a recent strong contender. Best Musical Actress will indeed boast an embarrassment of riches, and perhaps we will see some additional nomination slots this year given how razor-thin those margins will likely be when the tallies are counted.
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