‘The Walking Dead’ Bites Into the NFL’s TV Ad Game
The power of NFL games to rake in advertising coin for TV networks may be nearing its upper limit.
The addition of a second night of NFL football to broadcast TV’s fall primetime schedule appears to have put downward pressure on the networks’ ability to carve out annual pricing gains for America’s most-watched sport, according to a Variety survey of primetime commercial costs. With CBS airing eight games of NFL football on Thursday nights, both NBC and ESPN have found it difficult to increase the average rate they charge for “Sunday Night Football,” and “Monday Night Football,” the analysis shows.
To be sure, “SNF” and “MNF,” the two most expensive primetime programs for advertisers in 2013, according to our survey, retain their status as two of TV’s most costly. But the average price for a 30-second spot in “Sunday Night Football” fell 0.8% to $623,425 for this year, compared with an average of $628,000 in 2013 (NBC has said it is seeking $650,000 for half a minute in its broadcasts). Likewise, the average price of a 30-second ad in ESPN’s “Monday Night Football” fell nearly 2.5%, to $397,898 in 2014, from an average of $408,000 this fall.
The mild price deflation comes after years of outsized gains for the NBC pigskin showcase. In 2013, the average price of a 30-second spot in “SNF” soared 15.2% over its 2012 average of $545,142. That figure represented a 6.4% hike over 2011’s average of $512,367, which in turn marked a whopping upsurge of 23.5% over 2010’s average of $415,000.
At a time of massive audience shifts to digital media and streaming video, NFL football games have been something of a panacea for the TV industry. Their ability to woo massive audiences who watch the contests live, rather than days later via DVR, has transformed them into blue-chip real estate on TV’s grid.
(Click image for large preview.)
And they continue their dominance. CBS’ new “Thursday Night Football” commands an average of $492,500 for a 30-second spot, making it the second-most-expensive program for advertisers on television in 2014. And ABC’s Saturday-night college football broadcast saw its price rise 39% for this season. With NBC’s Sunday gridiron bonanza ruling the roost, and ESPN’s program holding fourth place, the game — in all its permutations — remains a major force.
But others are making gains. AMC’s “The Walking Dead” commands an average of $413,695 for a package of ads across several runs of an episode, marking a 26.9% hike over 2013’s average of $326,000 — and giving the show enough of a boost that it now costs more on a price basis than ESPN’s “MNF.” NBC’s drama “The Blacklist” saw the average price for a 30-second spot on Mondays soar a whopping 62.7% to $294,586, from last year’s average of $174,943.
The figures in Variety’s commercial-price analysis are directional indicators, not hard figures written in stone. TV ad prices vary widely from one sponsor to the next, depending upon the relationship a marketer or media-buying agency has with a particular network, or even whether a TV ad buy is part of a larger package that includes digital advertising.
Among TV’s newest entrants, the most expensive program for advertisers is NBC’s Monday-night drama “State of Affairs,” which stars Katherine Heigl and will enjoy a lead-in boost from “The Voice.” The show commands an average of $224,060 for a 30-second spot. Fox’s “Gotham” notches an average of $192,111, while ABC’s “How to Get Away With Murder” captures an average of $164,938.
Advertisers seem less excited about what has been one of TV’s most successful formats in recent seasons: reality competition programs. Like football, Fox’s “American Idol” and NBC’s “The Voice” garner some of TV’s richest ad prices. But the average rate for a maturing “Idol” is down 5.4% for its Wednesday broadcast and 3.24% for its Thursday showing (Fox has said it will air fewer hours of “Idol” in 2015). Meanwhile, the average cost of a 30-second ad on the Monday broadcast of “The Voice” on NBC is up just 1.08%, and down 7.02% for its Tuesday edition.
The larger question looming over all of ad-supported TV these days is whether the recent softness in upfront and scatter-market sales is a short-term dip or a sign of a long-term shift of dollars to digital platforms. But as evidenced by the year-to-year gains for “Blacklist,” there’s still nothing blue-chip marketers covet more than a broad-based hit show on network TV.
Related stories
Kyle MacLachlan To Let Sunset Strip Pad
Gores Brothers Play High-End Property Games
Get more from Variety and Variety411: Follow us on Twitter, Facebook, Newsletter
Solve the daily Crossword
