Way too early Grammy 2026 odds: Kendrick, Gaga, Elton, The Weeknd, Lana, and all the Album of the Year contenders
The 2026 Grammys are still a year away, but it’s not too soon to start handicapping the race.
The end of February marks the halfway point in the eligibility period, which started Aug. 31, 2024, which means the next Album of the Year may not have even been announced yet. But there is already a crowded field of officially announced, scheduled, or released material jockeying for one of the eight slots. Here’s how the contest currently stands, based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users who have placed their bets.
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As previously noted, Kendrick Lamar is the frontrunner with GNX, which he released on Nov. 22. The main question for him will be durability. While his trouncing of Drake in their rap battle last summer ended up sustaining through the year — and his diss track “Not Like Us” just won five Grammys including Record of the Year and Song of the Year and was a highlight of Lamar’s Super Bowl halftime show — there’s a risk of GNX peaking too soon and being forgotten by awards season.
If so, the Grammys can revert to the tried and true formula of awarding an overdue veteran. Believe it or not, Elton John has never won Album of the Year at the Grammys — he has only ever won five Grammys total — but now he’s partnered with Grammy magnet Brandi Carlile (who has 11 statuettes) for a collaborative album titled Who Believes in Angels? Their partnership may end up resembling Alison Krauss and Robert Plant‘s partnership on Raising Sand, which won them Album of the Year in 2009.
Lady Gaga also has a Grammy IOU to cash in. She has been nominated for Album of the Year four times but has yet to win, despite 14 victories in other categories. She’s going back to her dance pop roots with Mayhem, which could land her her first solo nomination in the category since Born This Way 13 years ago.
The Weeknd, meanwhile, has ended his Grammy boycott, which he started after his nominations shutout for After Hours and single “Blinding Lights.” Recording Academy CEO Harvey Mason Jr. recapped their estrangement during the Feb. 2 telecast before introducing The Weeknd as a surprise performer. Well, now’s the time to put their money where their mouths are. The Weeknd’s Hurry Up Tomorrow is eligible in this awards cycle. Let’s see if the Recording Academy nominates him this time. According to our current odds, they probably will.
Ranked fifth in our odds is another past nominee: Lana Del Rey, who has never bagged a Grammy in 11 career nominations. Her new collection, The Right Person Will Stay, arrives May 21. Tyler, the Creator is hoping for his first general field recognition with an Album of the Year bid for Chromakopia, currently ranked sixth. Bad Bunny can secure his second album bid for Debí Tirar Más Fotos. And rounding out the current top eight is a band that doesn’t always have critics’ approval but still has the industry’s support: Coldplay with Moon Music, which would be the Chris Martin-led group’s third consecutive album nominated for the top award.
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CURRENT FRONTRUNNERS
1. Kendrick Lamar, GNX
Current Odds: 13/2
Label: PGLang/Interscope
Release Date: Nov. 22, 2024
Grammy History: With 22 awards, he’s one of the most awarded individuals in Grammy history, and the third most awarded rapper, following closely behind Jay-Z and Kanye West with 24 apiece. He recently won Record and Song of the Year for his diss track “Not Like Us,” but he has not yet won Album of the Year despite six nominations in the category.
2. Elton John and Brandi Carlile, Who Believes in Angels?
Current Odds: 9/1
Label: Interscope
Release Date: April 4, 2025
Grammy History: Perhaps surprisingly, Elton John has only won five Grammys in his career, and he has never won Album of the Year despite four attempts. Carlile hasn’t won Album of the Year either despite two previous nominations, though she has won 11 trophies in her career thus far.
3. Lady Gaga, Mayhem
Current Odds: 10/1
Label: Streamline/Interscope
Release Date: March 7, 2025
Grammy History: Lady Gaga has four previous nominations for Album of the Year, but she has yet to win it. Altogether she has won 14 awards out of 38 nominations from the Recording Academy.
4. The Weeknd, Hurry Up Tomorrow
Current Odds: 23/2
Label: XO/Republic
Release Date: Jan. 31, 2025
Grammy History: Though The Weeknd famously boycotted the Grammys after they shut his album After Hours out of the nominations, he made up with the Academy and performed during the 2025 awards ceremony. To date, The Weeknd has won four Grammys and has been nominated for Album of the Year four times (mostly for his featured appearances on other artists’ albums).
5. Lana Del Rey, The Right Person Will Stay
Current Odds: 14/1
Label: Interscope/Polydor
Release Date: May 21, 2025
Grammy History: She has been nominated for 11 Grammys, including three for Album of the Year, but she hasn’t won yet in any category.
6. Tyler, the Creator, Chromakopia
Current Odds: 18/1
Label: Columbia
Release Date: Oct. 28, 2024
Grammy History: He has won two Grammys for Best Rap Album, for Igor and Call Me if You Get Lost. He was also nominated for Album of the Year as a featured artist on Frank Ocean’s Channel Orange. But he hasn’t been nominated in the general field as a lead artist.
7. Bad Bunny, Debí Tirar Más Fotos
Current Odds: 20/1
Label: Rimas
Release Date: Jan. 5, 2025
Grammy History: He has won three Grammys (plus 11 Latin Grammys) in his career. He was nominated once for Album of the Year for Un Verano Sin Ti, which was the first Spanish-language album ever to compete for the top prize.
8. Coldplay, Moon Music
Current Odds: 30/1
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Release Date: Oct. 4, 2024
Grammy History: The British pop-rock band have won seven Grammys and earned three nominations for Album of the Year, including for their last two albums in a row, Everyday Life and Music of the Spheres.
DARK HORSE CONTENDERS
9. Samara Joy, Portrait
Current Odds: 33/1
10. Finneas, For Cryin’ Out Loud!
Current Odds: 72/1
11. Various Artists, Wicked: The Soundtrack
Current Odds: 100/1
12. Bon Iver, Sable, Fable
Current Odds: 100/1
13. FKA Twigs, Eusexua
Current Odds: 100/1
14. Alison Krauss and Union Station, Arcadia
Current Odds: 100/1
15. Jelly Roll, Beautifully Broken
Current Odds: 100/1
16. Linkin Park, From Zero
Current Odds: 100/1
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