Where the 2025 Oscar acting races stand after BAFTA nominations
The 2025 BAFTA nominations had its share of snubs and surprises, some less so than others (Denzel Washington missing again is just par for the course now). The final televised precursor — and an industry one to boot — made the acting categories even messier while ostensibly taking other contenders out of the running. Here’s where we’re at with all four races post-BAFTA nominations.
Best Actor
Golden Globe, Critics Choice, SAG and BAFTA nominations: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and SAG nominations: Daniel Craig (Queer)
Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and BAFTA nominations: Hugh Grant (Heretic)
Golden Globe and BAFTA nominations: Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
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Assuming the top four are in — as many have all season, and the quartet has not missed a beat — that leaves one spot up for grabs. Craig has occupied that spot in the odds all season long, even as Queer has faltered, and it was clear he’d be a lone nominee. After his surprising SAG nomination last week for an anti-SAG-friendly film like Queer, it appeared like this category was a done deal. It’s safe to say no one had Craig making SAG and missing BAFTA on their bingo card. How could Craig get snubbed by BAFTA, many thought? Especially with six slots and the elimination of the jury? And he’s British! Alas, he was snubbed, while fellow fringe contenders Grant and Stan made it. No offense to Grant, who will likely miss the Oscar nom once again, but it’s probably between Craig and Stan for the last spot — and the edge is arguably with Stan at this point. The Apprentice, which earned three BAFTA bids, has been better received internationally than domestically, and there’s a passion for his performance — necessarily for those No. 1 votes on the Oscar ballot — and growing public acknowledgment of it. Stan has also had a career year between this film and A Different Man, for which he won the comedy/musical Golden Globe and savvily mentioned The Apprentice in his speech. He could vote-split with himself, which could also be why he’s missed at many places like SAG, but despite his Globe win for A Different Man, it’s clear his main pony ought to be The Apprentice.
SEE Complete list of 2025 BAFTA nominations
Best Actress
Golden Globe, Critics Choice, SAG, and BAFTA nominations: Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)
Golden Globe and SAG nominations: Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl)
Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations: Angelina Jolie (Maria)
Critics Choice and BAFTA nominations: Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths)
Golden Globe nomination: Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), Kate Winslet (Lee)
BAFTA nomination: Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun)
Like Best Actor, there’s a strong top four and one open slot here. The BAFTA nominations have solidified an ostensible top seven with Erivo, Gascón, Madison, Moore, Anderson, Jean-Baptiste, and Torres. Anderson was MIA on the BAFTA longlist, but her costar Jamie Lee Curtis made it and was nominated. For all we know, Anderson could’ve been between eighth and 13th at BAFTA and wasn’t chosen by the longlist jury. Jean-Baptiste also has support from highbrow critics, having swept the New York Film Critics Circle, Los Angeles Film Critics Association, and National Society of Film Critics Awards, and is the kind of passion-backed No. 1 vote-getter. Torres was also omitted from the BAFTA longlist, but she has the drama Globe win, and all of her high-profile rivals in that category, bar Anderson, have fizzled. Jolie and Kidman, who were both firmly in the top five in the fall, likely don’t have the juice to keep pace. The latter did make the BAFTA longlist, but the former took a double whammy with the BAFTA longlist and SAG snubs.
Best Supporting Actor
Golden Globe, Critics Choice, SAG and BAFTA nominations: Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
Golden Globe, SAG, and BAFTA nominations: Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
Critics Choice, BAFTA nominations: Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations: Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)
SAG nomination: Jonathan Bailey (Wicked)
This category got knotty very quickly. Borisov, Culkin, Maclin, Pearce, and Washington made up the top five in the odds for months. Then The Apprentice, which many had written off after the election, rebounded, and A Complete Unknown opened and is peaking at precisely the right time, which complicated things for Maclin and Washington, whose films were also underperforming. Washington, who has still never been nominated at BAFTA, took a huge hit when he missed SAG, where a legend with film MVP notices like him ought to have been safe with a populist body like the guild. Still, SAG went with another fun performance in a very, uh, popular movie, Wicked‘s Bailey. And just like how no one foresaw Craig making SAG and missing BAFTA, no one could’ve predicted that Maclin would miss SAG, where a feel-good movie like Sing Sing is right up its alley, and make BAFTA, especially without a jury and Sing Sing being so small. If the top three are set, the remaining two spots favor Pearce, who’s in a top Best Picture contender, and Strong, who not only boasts nominations from both industry precursors of the borderline contenders but has a baity, sympathetic turn as Roy Cohn and has long felt like someone upon whom the industry is waiting to bestow an Oscar nomination. Even Norton is shook by his performance.
SEE BAFTA snubs and surprises: Denzel Washington, Wicked, and more
Best Supporting Actress
Golden Globe, Critics Choice, SAG and BAFTA nominations: Ariana Grande (Wicked), Zoe Salda?a (Emilia Pérez)
Golden Globe and BAFTA nominations: Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations: Margaret Qualley (The Substance)
Critics Choice and SAG nominations: Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson)
SAG and BAFTA nominations: Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl)
Critics Choice nomination: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys)
SAG nomination: Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)
And now for the messiest category of them all. Only two, Grande and Salda?a, have hit everything, and you can now feasibly argue that JLC is third. She doesn’t have all four nominations but has the most important ones from the two industry precursors. She’s also just two years removed from her Oscar win for Everything Everywhere All at Once and bagged an Emmy for The Bear — significant momentum for an afterglow nomination for a film that has another potential acting nominee, so she wouldn’t even be a lone nominee. Rossellini and Jones, who are third and fourth, respectively, in the odds, could coast off the strength of their movies, as could Gomez, who has dropped down to eighth. Qualley is the reverse Curtis: She stumbled with the industry awards, so she’s on shakier ground, especially as The Substance has not been over-performing with guilds or BAFTA. Deadwyler and Ellis-Taylor are significant long shots, but Barbaro is an exciting dark horse. A Complete Unknown is thriving, and while Barbaro missed the BAFTA longlist, maybe she wasn’t selected by the jury.
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