Why the SAG Awards are the biggest test for Zoe Salda?a — and why Ariana Grande can pull the upset
After a whiplash of an awards season for Emilia Pérez, the dust has settled in terms of the Netflix Spanish-language musical’s Oscar potential. Now that the Critics Choice and BAFTA Awards unveiled their results, the French export is the favorite to win Best Supporting Actress for Zoe Salda?a, Best International Film, and Best Song for “El Mal,” according to the combined Gold Derby odds.
But there is still one more obstacle for Salda?a to overcome: the Screen Actors Guild Awards on Feb. 23. She’s competing there against Ariana Grande (Wicked), Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), and Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson).
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Since the unprecedented controversy surrounding the movie’s lead actress, Karla Sofía Gascón, over her resurfaced bigoted social media posts and subsequent string of statements and apologies, Salda?a has distanced herself from her costar, who made history as the first openly transgender performer nominated for an Oscar in Best Actress.
During an event for the movie in London, Salda?a stated, “I’m still processing everything that has transpired in the last couple of days, and I’m sad. It makes me really sad because I don’t support, and I don’t have any tolerance for, any negative rhetoric towards people of any group. I can only attest to the experience that I had with each and every individual that was a part, that is a part, of this film, and my experience and my interactions with them were about inclusivity and collaboration and racial, cultural, and gender equity. And it just saddens me. It saddens me that we are having to face this setback right now.”
Then during an interview with Variety, she reaffirmed her statement when asked about Gascón’s insinuation that Salda?a and costar Selena Gomez were behind Gascón “200 percent.” Salda?a said, “I do not support any negative rhetoric of racism and bigotry towards any group of people. That is what I want to stand for.”
So far, the tactic has been successful, with Salda?a continuing to win prizes at the Critics Choice and BAFTA Awards to go with her Golden Globe.
Salda?a did finally mention Gascón at the BAFTAs when thanking the cast, but ended it by dedicating the award to her transgender nephew saying, “I’m dedicating all of these awards and the film Emilia Pérez to my nephew, Eli. He is the reason — they are the reason — I signed up to do this film in the first place. So as the proud aunt of a trans life, I will always stand with my community of trans people.”
The SAG Awards will be the final test before Salda?a’s claim to Oscar gold. Aside from her individual mention, she is also up with the film’s ensemble for Best Motion Picture Cast, and Gascón is also nominated for lead actress.
Even though Salda?a might be the runaway favorite in our combined odds, SAG is known to be a populist, diverse organization whose winners have tend to be audience-friendly. Think Black Panther, CODA, Parasite, Emily Blunt for A Quiet Place, and Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon.
Emilia Pérez has been struggling with popularity outside of the industry, with a vocal portion of its audience disagreeing with the movie’s message and taking issue with its representation of transgender individuals and Mexicans — a narrative that does not bode well with SAG’s inclusivity. Factor in Gascón’s social media posts attacking nearly every marginalized community, it is possible that a significant percentage of SAG-AFTRA members may avoid wanting to reward the movie at all. In that case, Salda?a could be collateral damage.
The flip side is the hugely popular musical fantasy film Wicked, which fits right into SAG’s wheelhouse, racking up a record-tying five nominations, matching The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All at Once. Competing with Salda?a in the Best Supporting Actress category all season is Grande, who has emerged as the strongest competition in the Gold Derby odds. With Wicked also having the best odds to win Best Motion Picture Cast, Grande could ride that momentum to an upset of Salda?a.
That said, SAG is also known for its sentimentality and with Salda?a blameless in the controversy and denouncing Gascón’s comments, she could come through unscathed. Plus, Salda?a is one of the highest-grossing actors of all time with her blockbuster roles in the MCU, Avatar, and Star Trek franchises, so SAG could also honor her popularity and legacy vs. Grande, who hasn’t made nearly the big-screen impact.
Regardless of what happens at the SAG Awards, it will not have any influence with the Oscars, with voting closing on Tuesday, even before SAG voting concludes on Friday. But with actors comprising the largest voting bloc for the Academy Awards, we will have a major hint about what may transpire on Oscar night and see whether the controversy has been mitigated or if the race has taken a dramatic turn.
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